The Collapse of America

A place to discuss history and historical events.
Ken
Posts: 21863
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Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Ken »

Josh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:39 amBootstrap and Ken’s belief in American exceptionalism really is a sight to behold. They truly believe America is special, and somehow will continue to be special despite all other signs pointing to both a global decline and a specific decline of the American empire.
Here you go again creating strawmen and putting words into the mouth of others. I don't believe in American exceptionalism in the slightest. And you will find nothing I have ever written here that suggests otherwise. To the contrary. What I don't believe is that there has ever been a "Leave it to Beaver" golden age in this country when all was well and good for ALL Americans. That is the fantasy of Make America Great AGAIN. We frequently travel to Chile and half our family lives there. Despite being a poorer nation on paper, it does many things better than the US with less resources.

That said, I also don't think the sky is falling and America is in "Collapse" for all the reasons I explained upstream. We can throw statistics around all day long but the fact is that some metrics are improving, others are worsening so it's a mixed bag. That doesn't mean I also don't think there is tremendous room for improvement to address the laundry list of issues you cited as well as many others. Like fairer and more progressive tax rates, better support for K-12 and higher education to provide wider opportunities to everyone, improved pedestrian, bike, and transit infrastructure so we can have a healthier and less car-centric lifestyle. Less support for commodity agriculture so carbs and sugars aren't always the cheapest sources of food. The list of ways that we can do better is frankly endless. Although I suspect that you and I would disagree on most of them.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Bootstrap

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Bootstrap »

Josh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:39 amBootstrap and Ken’s belief in American exceptionalism really is a sight to behold. They truly believe America is special, and somehow will continue to be special despite all other signs pointing to both a global decline and a specific decline of the American empire.
Huh?

Seriously, Josh, you should stop making things up. I think the level of partisan hostility in America today may cripple government and society, and if we don't find some way for the people in government to stop fighting and start governing, we may be in trouble.

To me, the fact that a large percent of Americans refused to acknowledge the last election and a small number participated in an armed insurrection on the capitol is alarming. To me, the level of extremist views that have leaked into the mainstream is alarming. There's no law that says American government will always survive. We had one civil war. Our future depends on our choices.
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Josh

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Josh »

Bootstrap wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:34 pm
Josh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:39 amBootstrap and Ken’s belief in American exceptionalism really is a sight to behold. They truly believe America is special, and somehow will continue to be special despite all other signs pointing to both a global decline and a specific decline of the American empire.
Huh?

Seriously, Josh, you should stop making things up. I think the level of partisan hostility in America today may cripple government and society, and if we don't find some way for the people in government to stop fighting and start governing, we may be in trouble.

To me, the fact that a large percent of Americans refused to acknowledge the last election and a small number participated in an armed insurrection on the capitol is alarming. To me, the level of extremist views that have leaked into the mainstream is alarming. There's no law that says American government will always survive. We had one civil war. Our future depends on our choices.
So, why do you think America is so superior to Central American countries (or Syria, etc.) that it is absolutely a matter of right and wrong that we must make sure as many people can migrate from there to here as possible?
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Bootstrap

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Bootstrap »

Josh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:43 pm So, why do you think America is so superior to Central American countries (or Syria, etc.) that it is absolutely a matter of right and wrong that we must make sure as many people can migrate from there to here as possible?
Why do you believe we need to gun down anyone who tries to cross the border and kill all refugees to prevent a communist revolution? Fortunately, neither of us believes these things.

Let's call this a Joshism, you do this a lot, it needs a name. The common elements of a Joshism are:

1. It puts an extreme, scary claim into someone else's mouth with strong emotional language
2. It paints the other person as a scary enemy
3. It changes the subject from what was actually said earlier
4. It does not quote or respond to what the other person actually said, and can sometimes look like an attempt to change the subject

So there are two Joshisms in this post. I don't believe either of them.
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Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Ken »

Bootstrap wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:14 pm
Josh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:43 pm So, why do you think America is so superior to Central American countries (or Syria, etc.) that it is absolutely a matter of right and wrong that we must make sure as many people can migrate from there to here as possible?
Why do you believe we need to gun down anyone who tries to cross the border and kill all refugees to prevent a communist revolution? Fortunately, neither of us believes these things.

Let's call this a Joshism, you do this a lot, it needs a name. The common elements of a Joshism are:

1. It puts an extreme, scary claim into someone else's mouth with strong emotional language
2. It paints the other person as a scary enemy
3. It changes the subject from what was actually said earlier
4. It does not quote or respond to what the other person actually said, and can sometimes look like an attempt to change the subject

So there are two Joshisms in this post. I don't believe either of them.
Actually he managed to pack three "Joshisms" into one sentence, not two. Pretty impressive actually.

1. The assertion that we or anyone here thinks that "America is so superior." I don't recall anyone making that assertion. That America is wealthier and more stable. Sure. But not superior. Central Americans do some things better than us. On average they value family more. On average they tend to be more religious. On average they do a lot better job teaching their kids the value of work and how to contribute to the household. They do a lot of things better.

2. The assertion that we or anyone here thinks that there is an absolute right to migrate. I haven't heard anyone say that. There is a right under international law to present asylum claims and have them adjudicated. Regardless of whether you cross the border legally or illegally. But there is no absolute right to migrate and the great majority of migrants are turned away at the border under Biden just as they were under Trump and previous presidents.

3. The assertion that we want "as many people to migrate from Central America as possible. No one here has ever asserted that. To the contrary, most of us who have thought about this problem would rather see investments in the economy and governing structures of Central America (anti-corruption, etc.) to make it less necessary for migrants to leave out of desperation. If Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador were all as stable and prosperous as Costa Rica there would be very little migration from Central America. So it isn't a ridiculously unachievable goal. South Korea was once so dirt poor they couldn't even take care of their own orphans. Now it is an economic power. And that happened in many of our lifetimes.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Neto

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Neto »

Josh wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:39 am Bootstrap and Ken’s belief in American exceptionalism really is a sight to behold. They truly believe America is special, and somehow will continue to be special despite all other signs pointing to both a global decline and a specific decline of the American empire.

There are no signs in America of improvement. The rich are getting vastly richer; the poor are getting poorer. The middle class is being wiped out. Asset prices are skyrocketing: 1/5th of single family homes now are being bought by investors, not families. Bill Gates is the largest owner of farmland. Family farmers are being crushed by low prices for what they produce, even as the poor are being crushed by higher and higher food prices at the places they buy.

30% of employment was declared “inessential” last year. An economy and country doesn’t improve when you knock out 1/3rd of its labourers.

America’s health is declining, with obesity rising at shocking rates. Among the 48% of millennials who reported unwanted weight change during covid, the average weight gain was 41 pounds.

Image

No amount of science can reverse how unhealthy Americans are becoming, and neither can any amount of healthcare. Healthcare spending is now https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistic ... Historical18% of the economy[/url], and continues to grow. What future do we have when you have to spend 20% or 30% of your paycheck on healthcare?

The future of America is a giant favela, complete with your life being controlled by violent cartels, and unimaginably corrupt government rigging elections, ultra-wealthy powerful elite who do whatever they can to cling to their wealth, but with worse weather than Central America or South America.
There's quite a bit of other things he said here that you all aren't noticing. I'm not political, but I don't think we should live with our heads in the sand (or in the clouds), thinking that "It'll never happen here in the States", this collapse of government. I have studied the story of my own people enough to know that they never would have believed that Russia would collapse the way it did in the nine teens and 1920 or so. I have a book on the history of the Mennonite people in Russia, published in 1911. In many ways they sounded like KRG ("Keep Russia Great") people. But in just a few short years everything was turned upside down. (Look up the Holodomor as an example of what their world became.) (Don't worry, eventually I'll get tired of warning people, too.)
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Szdfan

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Szdfan »

Neto wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:46 pm There's quite a bit of other things he said here that you all aren't noticing. I'm not political, but I don't think we should live with our heads in the sand (or in the clouds), thinking that "It'll never happen here in the States", this collapse of government. I have studied the story of my own people enough to know that they never would have believed that Russia would collapse the way it did in the nine teens and 1920 or so. I have a book on the history of the Mennonite people in Russia, published in 1911. In many ways they sounded like KRG ("Keep Russia Great") people. But in just a few short years everything was turned upside down. (Look up the Holodomor as an example of what their world became.) (Don't worry, eventually I'll get tired of warning people, too.)
I think that robust institutions play a key part in preserving a nation’s stability. I am less confident in the inherent robustness of the US’s core institutions than I was prior to the Trump presidency.
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Josh

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Josh »

Ken wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:34 pm1. The assertion that we or anyone here thinks that "America is so superior." I don't recall anyone making that assertion. That America is wealthier and more stable. Sure. But not superior. Central Americans do some things better than us. On average they value family more. On average they tend to be more religious. On average they do a lot better job teaching their kids the value of work and how to contribute to the household. They do a lot of things better.
Then why is it important to make sure Central Americans can migrate to America? Bootstrap asserts it's a matter of life and death, and that all of us have Christians have a duty to make sure as many Central Americans can migrate into America as want to.

That seems to indicate he somehow thinks it's much better to be in America than Central America. I am questioning this worldview.
3. The assertion that we want "as many people to migrate from Central America as possible. No one here has ever asserted that. To the contrary, most of us who have thought about this problem would rather see investments in the economy and governing structures of Central America (anti-corruption, etc.) to make it less necessary for migrants to leave out of desperation.
So, you think America needs to basically take over Central America's economy and governments to make them "less corrupt"?

Should Central Americas govern themselves or should America basically just take over because American government is "better"?
If Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador were all as stable and prosperous as Costa Rica there would be very little migration from Central America. So it isn't a ridiculously unachievable goal. South Korea was once so dirt poor they couldn't even take care of their own orphans. Now it is an economic power. And that happened in many of our lifetimes.
Yes, but the impetus to do that lies on Central America and the people there themselves. And it won't happen by encouraging as much economic migration to America as possible, and I challenge the idea that Christians somehow have some moral duty to promote endless population churn.
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Bootstrap

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Bootstrap »

Josh wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:12 pm Then why is it important to make sure Central Americans can migrate to America? Bootstrap asserts it's a matter of life and death, and that all of us have Christians have a duty to make sure as many Central Americans can migrate into America as want to.
And Josh insists that we must shoot as many immigrant children as possible. Except that he doesn't. And neither do I think the things Josh is claiming.

More Joshisms.

Can we discuss the things I am actually saying in posts where you use my name, please? This is just picking fights and distracting from the content of what people are saying. I can't tell if you have even read my posts in this thread. There are few clues in your "responses".
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Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: The Collapse of America

Post by Ken »

Josh wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:12 pm
Ken wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:34 pm1. The assertion that we or anyone here thinks that "America is so superior." I don't recall anyone making that assertion. That America is wealthier and more stable. Sure. But not superior. Central Americans do some things better than us. On average they value family more. On average they tend to be more religious. On average they do a lot better job teaching their kids the value of work and how to contribute to the household. They do a lot of things better.
Then why is it important to make sure Central Americans can migrate to America? Bootstrap asserts it's a matter of life and death, and that all of us have Christians have a duty to make sure as many Central Americans can migrate into America as want to.

That seems to indicate he somehow thinks it's much better to be in America than Central America. I am questioning this worldview.
3. The assertion that we want "as many people to migrate from Central America as possible. No one here has ever asserted that. To the contrary, most of us who have thought about this problem would rather see investments in the economy and governing structures of Central America (anti-corruption, etc.) to make it less necessary for migrants to leave out of desperation.
So, you think America needs to basically take over Central America's economy and governments to make them "less corrupt"?

Should Central Americas govern themselves or should America basically just take over because American government is "better"?
If Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador were all as stable and prosperous as Costa Rica there would be very little migration from Central America. So it isn't a ridiculously unachievable goal. South Korea was once so dirt poor they couldn't even take care of their own orphans. Now it is an economic power. And that happened in many of our lifetimes.
Yes, but the impetus to do that lies on Central America and the people there themselves. And it won't happen by encouraging as much economic migration to America as possible, and I challenge the idea that Christians somehow have some moral duty to promote endless population churn.
If you want my opinions on immigration I'm happy to share them. As anyone who hangs out here knows, I'm never shy about giving opinions. In short they are:

1. I expect probably 95-99 percent of Central American migrants are economic migrants not political refugees. Do some have legitimate political asylum claims? Probably. But the vast majority don't. We have gun and drug violence in Chicago and all manner of social dysfunction, family violence, drug violence, and such in corners of Appalachia yet there is not a stream of urban Chicagoans and rural folk from western Kentucky streaming to Canada to request asylum. That said, under international law they do have the legal right to present their asylum claims and have them adjudicated. The problem is that under Trump and previous presidents we greatly increased immigration enforcement both within the US and on the border, which greatly increased the caseload of immigration courts by orders of magnitude. But we made little investment in increasing the capacity of those courts. So the long long delays are entirely predictable.

2. Relatedly, the lack of enforcement of labor laws within the economy has made the problem so much worse. The TX and CA manufacturing, construction, and agricultural economies would collapse without undocumented labor. Corporate America and employers prefer it this way because it gives them a cheaper labor pool with less rights.

3. Yes, the US government as well as other international institutions around the world from the Catholic Church and evangelical churches to European and Asian multinationals are all utterly complicit in creating the situation that exists in Central America. From US governments that have propped up military dictatorships or the military within democratic regimes during the cold war and later the drug war. To banks in Miami that are complicit in allowing Central American autocrats and aristocracy to abscond with the the public treasuries of those countries. To foreign multinationals that subvert labor laws and funnel money to the worst political actors. To the Catholic and evangelical churches that have allied themselves with right wing autocrats and have squelched sensible things like family planning programs. When I worked in Guatemala in the late 1980s the population was about 9 million and it was still overpopulated relative to what the agricultural sector could produce. Now the population has more than doubled to over 19 million. Which was the entirely predictable consequence of the Catholic church in a Catholic country opposing every public and private effort to promote family planning. I'll give you one guess as to where those extra 9 million people are going.

So what do I expect to actually happen? Not much. At best the Biden Administration may make some incremental changes to at least stop making things worse in Central America and perhaps improve immigrant processing and streamline immigration courts. But they will get distracted by the next crisis with Russia or China or North Korea or the middle east. And when the next president takes office in 2025 or 2029 I don't expect much will have changed.

In the mean time, we can at least do what we can to treat our neighbors humanely, as is our Christian duty. Both within the US, at the border, and inside these countries in question.

If you asked most educated and intelligent Central Americans who have a grasp of the issues and policies within their countries and ours, most will tell you that the US should first just stop making things worse before we can even talk about how to make things better. And they would be right.

As for what any of this has to do with the "collapse of America" Nothing actually. Immigrants, even undocumented ones actually produce far more wealth in this country than they extract. They are a net economic benefit. And honestly they are a net social benefit too, as most bring a work ethic and vibrancy that is lacking in parts of this country.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
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