The disease has run its course. We are reaching herd immunity. Could the vaccine hasten that? Possibly. But every pandemic of the past has has eventfully" burned itself out" either by reaching herd immunity because there are no more susceptible hosts or we have learned how to contain the disease and sometimes that has been vaccines.
I can assure you that the vaccine is having an impact in reducing the deaths among nursing home patients. "Run its course" and " burned itself out" means that all or most of the nursing home patients that were susceptible have died. The fact is that many, many nursing homes with susceptible populations experienced few or no deaths at all (because of masking, isolation and other practices), and with their residents vaccinated they can open up to visitors without risking exposure to the virus (as they are doing at my wife's Memory Care facility).
I don't know how you can objectively look at the graph that was posted and conclude that the vaccine is not responsible for the reduction in deaths among nursing home patients. Are you suggesting that it is mere coincidence that nursing home deaths began to decline precisely when the vaccine started to be deployed to these patients?
I'm not at all denying that nursing home residents are effected. In fact they are the most vulnerable - which is why they were given priority to receive the vaccine which has been effective in reducing the death rate among them. You seem to be denying that the vaccine is helping. Do you think it is a mistake to give them the vaccine? Do you think it was unnecessary?
I can assure you that the vaccine is having an impact in reducing the deaths among nursing home patients. "Run its course" and " burned itself out" means that all or most of the nursing home patients that were susceptible have died. The fact is that many, many nursing homes with susceptible populations experienced few or no deaths at all (because of masking, isolation and other practices), and with their residents vaccinated they can open up to visitors without risking exposure to the virus (as they are doing at my wife's Memory Care facility).
I don't know how you can objectively look at the graph that was posted and conclude that the vaccine is not responsible for the reduction in deaths among nursing home patients. Are you suggesting that it is mere coincidence that nursing home deaths began to decline precisely when the vaccine started to be deployed to these patients?
I'm not at all denying that nursing home residents are effected. In fact they are the most vulnerable - which is why they were given priority to receive the vaccine which has been effective in reducing the death rate among them. You seem to be denying that the vaccine is helping. Do you think it is a mistake to give them the vaccine? Do you think it was unnecessary?
I am not denying that the vaccine may not be helping and I am not saying folks in nursing homes should not be vaccinated. What I am saying is that I think the vaccine is being given a lot of credit that it may not really deserve. According to this https://www.phca.org/for-consumers/rese ... statistics there are 80,000 residents in nursing homes. That means in PA there has been a 10% death rate of the overall nursing home population. Given that this is almost 6X the overall death rate, (I do not know what the overall infection rate in the nursing homes has been), I suspect herd immunity may have been reached in the nursing homes. Now as rates would probably be reaching near zero because of herd immunity, we give the vaccine and proclaim that the vaccine has been the cure-all. I would not be so crass as to suggest controlled studies on the elderly by vaccinating some and not vaccinating others, but I suspect that if such a study should be done it would be found that the vaccine has not really done all that much.
I think it is probably a good precautionary measure to administer the vaccine to those in nursing homes, but IMO the vaccine is being far more credit than it deserves.
Biblical Anabaptist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:08 pm
I am not denying that the vaccine may not be helping and I am not saying folks in nursing homes should not be vaccinated. What I am saying is that I think the vaccine is being given a lot of credit that it may not really deserve.
I think it is probably a good precautionary measure to administer the vaccine to those in nursing homes, but IMO the vaccine is being far more credit than it deserves.
The graph that was posted tells a very different story, a more believable one, though one that anti-vaxers don't want to admit to. The elderly in nursing homes (as well as medical providers) were the first to receive the vaccine and their death rate immediately decreased significantly. The general population has been receiving the vaccine over a longer period of time and their deaths continued to rise and is declining at a lower rate. I simply cannot see where "herd immunity" fits this graph in regards to the elderly in nursing homes. Did nursing home suddenly reach herd immunity coincidental to their residents being vaccinated, while the general population was delayed in achieving herd immunity? You are stretching credulity to suggest that herd immunity, not the vaccine, is responsible for the decrease in nursing home deaths.
Absolutely Wayne - in fact it is exactly what one would expect to see as the vaccine has been targeted toward the elderly and long-term care residents.
Vaccine distribution started in mid-December focused especially on long-term care homes (a group that represented 36% of the COVID deaths with only 1% of the population). Distribution was almost complete by the end of January - and although it take a while for the vaccines to be fully activated, the reality is that the benefits of antibody production begin to grow shortly after the first shot is given, peaking in efficacy two weeks after the second dose.
I think you have to work pretty hard not to see causation here.
Biblical Anabaptist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:08 pm
I am not denying that the vaccine may not be helping and I am not saying folks in nursing homes should not be vaccinated. What I am saying is that I think the vaccine is being given a lot of credit that it may not really deserve.
I think it is probably a good precautionary measure to administer the vaccine to those in nursing homes, but IMO the vaccine is being far more credit than it deserves.
The graph that was posted tells a very different story, a more believable one, though one that anti-vaxers don't want to admit to. The elderly in nursing homes (as well as medical providers) were the first to receive the vaccine and their death rate immediately decreased significantly. The general population has been receiving the vaccine over a longer period of time and their deaths continued to rise and is declining at a lower rate. I simply cannot see where "herd immunity" fits this graph in regards to the elderly in nursing homes. Did nursing home suddenly reach herd immunity coincidental to their residents being vaccinated, while the general population was delayed in achieving herd immunity? You are stretching credulity to suggest that herd immunity, not the vaccine, is responsible for the decrease in nursing home deaths.
I am aware that we are each seeing what we want to see, but considering that the vaccine was only beginning widespread use around the first of the year and it takes "a few weeks" for the vaccine to be effective and guessing that on average a person would be sick a week before dying, the graph IMO does not reflect the effectiveness of the vaccine. The effectiveness of the vaccine will only start to be reflected beyond the end of this graph. The vaccine may be very effective but I believe it is premature to make that call. As I said the only way to know would be to do a controlled study on vaccinated vs unvaccinated folks, but I am not sure that would be ethical. The rooster crowed and the sun came up.
It takes about 2 weeks for the vaccines to build enough immunity in the body to be effective. Perhaps even longer for elderly with weak natural immune systems. It doesn't confer instant immunity. So if we are talking just days after a vaccine campaign at a nursing home, then we are talking about a population that most likely does not yet have immunity to the virus.
How does this explain how 11 people died at our nursing home in California, after they'd stayed alive for the last year under lockdown?
Are you claiming that there had been no deaths at that nursing home until the residents were vaccinated? I think you want us to believe that 11 people were killed by the vaccine. Could you tell us the name and location of this home so that we can read the news reports of this sudden death of 11 residents?
How does this explain how 11 people died at our nursing home in California, after they'd stayed alive for the last year under lockdown?
Are you claiming that there had been no deaths at that nursing home until the residents were vaccinated? I think you want us to believe that 11 people were killed by the vaccine. Could you tell us the name and location of this home so that we can read the news reports of this sudden death of 11 residents?
Wayne,
I’ll discuss this offline with you.
I would prefer that you clarify your remarks on the same forum as you made them.
Regardless of which vaccine you get, you won’t reach full protection until two weeks after your second or final dose. That’s about how long it takes your immune system to mount an antibody response to the vaccine.
Regardless of which vaccine you get, you won’t reach full protection until two weeks after your second or final dose. That’s about how long it takes your immune system to mount an antibody response to the vaccine.
While it is true that "full protection" won't be achieved until two weeks after the second vaccination, some immunity develops early on after the first shot - it is not an all-or-nothing as you might suggest. In the graph, the initial decline in nursing home deaths (after vaccination started) tracks the decline among the general public. After a couple weeks there was an increase in deaths among the general public but a continuing decrease in deaths among those vaccinated in nursing homes. If herd immunity was the cause of the decrease it would have caused a decrease in the general population and the nursing home patients who had been vaccinated. Another graph shows this difference even more clearly:
It's not a matter of "each seeing what we want to see", it's a matter of seeing what is plainly evident and not rejecting the truth simply becasue it contradicts the anti-vaccination narrative.
