Coronavirus Outbreak

[ken_sylvania]

Numbers are all still improving. The recent hiccups in the downward trends apparently have to do with reporting lags over the president's day holiday, the power outages in Texas, and other things.

I was wondering about the sudden leveling off of both deaths and cases for the past 10 days. What you are saying is that weather and President's Day caused an initial artificial drop in reporting which had to catch up in the following days. I think that explains what was happening in deaths especially, which I expect to continue to drop since vaccines are targeting the most vulnerable.

I still wonder about cases though, which have leveled off at about 60k per day for the last 10 days - It concerns me because that is still a relatively high number (near the peak of the summer wave levels), and I wonder if it is a result of the variants spreading combined with some easing. Anecdotally, my Nurse Practitioner daughter is recently seeing an uptick in cases at her clinic once again. I'd feel more at ease if it would continue to drop again - but the vaccine will impacts death rates well before it impacts case rates.

On the positive side, it looks like folks are really ramping up plans to begin gathering again later this spring. Beginning with April, at the retreat center and summer camp I run, it looks like there will be a return to near normal levels of occupancy after a year of almost total absence of groups. After months of little activity, we are taking calls regularly now for events, turning some away even due to high occupancy.

FYI, I found this interesting - our booking patterns are a microcosm of how different groups of folks are relating to future planning. Here is the general order in which folks have begun to call to book retreats for the coming months:

• Individual Families - all along
• Family Reunions - beginning to call in December
• Rural Church Group - Beginning in January
• Immigrant Church Groups - Beginning in February
• National Youth Organizations (e.g. 4-H) - Beginning Mid-February
• Suburban Evangelical Church Groups - Just now beginning to call
• Urban & Mainline/Liberal Churches - Not yet booking

This order makes sense to me sociologically in terms of how these groups relate to pandemic risks

I'm just slightly skeptical that the increased vaccination may be related to the case number leveling off. The reports of multiple deaths at various elder care facilities/communities within days after vaccinations are a bit concerning.

[Ken]

I'm just slightly skeptical that the increased vaccination may be related to the case number leveling off. The reports of multiple deaths at various elder care facilities/communities within days after vaccinations are a bit concerning.

It takes about 2 weeks for the vaccines to build enough immunity in the body to be effective. Perhaps even longer for elderly with weak natural immune systems. It doesn't confer instant immunity. So if we are talking just days after a vaccine campaign at a nursing home, then we are talking about a population that most likely does not yet have immunity to the virus.

[ken_sylvania]

I'm just slightly skeptical that the increased vaccination may be related to the case number leveling off. The reports of multiple deaths at various elder care facilities/communities within days after vaccinations are a bit concerning.

It takes about 2 weeks for the vaccines to build enough immunity in the body to be effective. Perhaps even longer for elderly with weak natural immune systems. It doesn't confer instant immunity. So if we are talking just days after a vaccine campaign at a nursing home, then we are talking about a population that most likely does not yet have immunity to the virus.

I am aware of that, but I suppose you could understand why there would be concerns if deaths spike within just a couple days after the vaccines are administered.

[Dan Z]

The net so far in long-term care centers is quite positive since they have been targeted for early vaccinations. According to NY Times analysis:

From late December to early February, new cases among nursing home residents fell by more than 80 percent, nearly double the rate of improvement in the general population. The trendline for deaths was even more striking: Even as fatalities spiked over all this winter, deaths inside the facilities have fallen, decreasing by more than 65 percent.

I expect to see a similar decline soon in cases, and more importantly deaths among folks 65 & up. This group represents about 17% of the US population, but made up over 80% of Covid deaths in 2020. Almost half of them have had at least one shot already.

This tells me that well before the vaccine is widely distributed to all ages, this targeted approach will have a significant effect on putting downward pressure on hospitalizations and deaths.

[mike]

Texas governor Greg Abbott has rescinded his mask order given 8 months ago, and all businesses in the state will be able to open at 100% effective next week.

[Josh]

I'm just slightly skeptical that the increased vaccination may be related to the case number leveling off. The reports of multiple deaths at various elder care facilities/communities within days after vaccinations are a bit concerning.

It takes about 2 weeks for the vaccines to build enough immunity in the body to be effective. Perhaps even longer for elderly with weak natural immune systems. It doesn't confer instant immunity. So if we are talking just days after a vaccine campaign at a nursing home, then we are talking about a population that most likely does not yet have immunity to the virus.

How does this explain how 11 people died at our nursing home in California, after they'd stayed alive for the last year under lockdown?

[Josh]

This tells me that well before the vaccine is widely distributed to all ages, this targeted approach will have a significant effect on putting downward pressure on hospitalizations and deaths.

Or it will cause a lot of deaths - but they won't be categorised as COVID deaths or vaccine deaths, which seems to be what's happening so far.

[Bootstrap]

Nursing homes recently accounted for 1/3 of all Covid-19 deaths. With vaccinations, those deaths are dropping rapidly. To me, at least, this looks like a strong indication that vaccinations work.

In the general population, I also think that the number of people who have recovered from Covid is a factor. But vaccinations make a real difference, especially among the most vulnerable populations. Until recently, nursing homes accounted for about 1/3 of Covid deaths.

Nursing Homes, Once Hotspots, Far Outpace U.S. in Covid Declines

[Dan Z]

This tells me that well before the vaccine is widely distributed to all ages, this targeted approach will have a significant effect on putting downward pressure on hospitalizations and deaths.

Or it will cause a lot of deaths - but they won't be categorised as COVID deaths or vaccine deaths, which seems to be what's happening so far.

Hadn't heard much about this - can you aim me at the source of your information?

[Wayne in Maine]

I'm just slightly skeptical that the increased vaccination may be related to the case number leveling off. The reports of multiple deaths at various elder care facilities/communities within days after vaccinations are a bit concerning.

It takes about 2 weeks for the vaccines to build enough immunity in the body to be effective. Perhaps even longer for elderly with weak natural immune systems. It doesn't confer instant immunity. So if we are talking just days after a vaccine campaign at a nursing home, then we are talking about a population that most likely does not yet have immunity to the virus.

How does this explain how 11 people died at our nursing home in California, after they'd stayed alive for the last year under lockdown?

Are you claiming that there had been no deaths at that nursing home until the residents were vaccinated? I think you want us to believe that 11 people were killed by the vaccine. Could you tell us the name and location of this home so that we can read the news reports of this sudden death of 11 residents?