Coronavirus Outbreak

[mike]

I know that Trump is supposed to be very bad for not displaying a dour enough public countenance in relation to the virus, and Biden is supposed to be the wonderful healing balm for the nation, but I seriously wonder whether you can actually attribute COVID deaths to the one and a national recovery to the other.

Mike - I'm confused - are you reading this into my post above, or are you responding to someone else or something more general?

I'm not responding to you in particular, just speaking in general.

[mike]

Here is some evidence that it may not be the federal government that is holding back progress on getting the vaccines out.

(1/6/2021)


Looks like this Bloomberg web page may be the source for this data. The bottom line is that the states may not be quickly utilizing the vaccines they are being given. Or I suppose the reporting may be lagging.

[Judas Maccabeus]

Here is some evidence that it may not be the federal government that is holding back progress on getting the vaccines out.

(1/6/2021)


Looks like this Bloomberg web page may be the source for this data. The bottom line is that the states may not be quickly utilizing the vaccines they are being given. Or I suppose the reporting may be lagging.

Maryland's governor was on the radio last night. Some of it is simply institutional inability to get the job done. Many hospitals are laboring with the holidays, caseload surge due to covid and reduced staffing for economic reasons. He basically said, if an institution has not gotten their vaccines out within a reasonable time, it will be redistributed.

Some of it is reporting delay. Apparently, one of the federally designated providers for nursing homes was not entering data into Immuinet, the state reporting system. This will make it look like the vaccine doses are sitting on a shelf, when actually they have been used.

Some of this is simply resource and staffing issues. He is calling out the National Guard, and Maryland's retired health professionals to alleviate this.

Some of this is that providers are waiting to see how many doses they actually get before scheduling people. This is somewhat understandable. This problem is at the federal level, as the supply is not known until a few days before shipping.

So it is a multipart problem. The bottom line is we need more vaccine, and more people to get it into peoples arms.

J.M.

[mike]

So it is a multipart problem. The bottom line is we need more vaccine, and more people to get it into peoples arms.

J.M.

Makes sense, J.M. Clearly vaccines aren't going to be a quick fix for the virus, just from a logistical standpoint. I can't imagine we will even know for many months whether the vaccines are making any difference.

[Dan Z]

So it is a multipart problem. The bottom line is we need more vaccine, and more people to get it into peoples arms.

J.M.

Makes sense, J.M. Clearly vaccines aren't going to be a quick fix for the virus, just from a logistical standpoint. I can't imagine we will even know for many months whether the vaccines are making any difference.

I think we are only a few months away from seeing real improvement - here's why:

While it is a herculean logistical task to vaccinate most of the 330 million Americans, by first vaccinating just the small portion of the population who make up over 80% of the deaths (nursing home residents, the elderly, the infirmed, front-line healthcare workers) the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) will most certainly begin to fall quite rapidly. Infection rates may still remain high, but by vaccinating the most vulnerable the death rate should quickly fall into the range for a bad flu rather than a deadly pandemic. From what I hear, this first tier of vaccines should be mostly completed by the end of February.

[mike]

So it is a multipart problem. The bottom line is we need more vaccine, and more people to get it into peoples arms.

J.M.

Makes sense, J.M. Clearly vaccines aren't going to be a quick fix for the virus, just from a logistical standpoint. I can't imagine we will even know for many months whether the vaccines are making any difference.

I think we are only a few months away from seeing real improvement - here's why:

While it is a herculean logistical task to vaccinate most of the 330 million Americans, by first vaccinating just the small portion of the population who make up over 80% of the deaths (nursing home residents, the elderly, the infirmed, front-line healthcare workers) the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) will most certainly begin to fall quite rapidly. Infection rates may still remain high, but by vaccinating the most vulnerable the death rate should quickly fall into the range for a bad flu rather than a deadly pandemic. From what I hear, this first tier of vaccines should be mostly completed by the end of February.

I certainly hope for that scenario.

[ken_sylvania]

So it is a multipart problem. The bottom line is we need more vaccine, and more people to get it into peoples arms.

J.M.

Makes sense, J.M. Clearly vaccines aren't going to be a quick fix for the virus, just from a logistical standpoint. I can't imagine we will even know for many months whether the vaccines are making any difference.

I think we are only a few months away from seeing real improvement - here's why:

While it is a herculean logistical task to vaccinate most of the 330 million Americans, by first vaccinating just the small portion of the population who make up over 80% of the deaths (nursing home residents, the elderly, the infirmed, front-line healthcare workers) the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) will most certainly begin to fall quite rapidly. Infection rates may still remain high, but by vaccinating the most vulnerable the death rate should quickly fall into the range for a bad flu rather than a deadly pandemic. From what I hear, this first tier of vaccines should be mostly completed by the end of February.

Fauci says no noticeable impact on cases from vaccines until 30% to 40% of the population is vaccinated. Not before March or April, and he said this before the delays in vaccine distribution and administration became obvious.

[Josh]

Holmes County is dead last for cases in Ohio. #88 out of 88 counties. It's not in the chart, but they are in the bottom for deaths too.



Ohio's bureau of workers' compensation investigated a number of businesses for compliance with mask mandates. Oddly enough, the #1 offender was in Holmes County:

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2 ... 948371001/

The list includes several gas stations and discount stores. The largest number of employees not wearing masks was observed at Keim, a Holmes County wood manufacturer and home-building retailer. Inspectors counted 37 employees present; 25 weren't wearing masks.

[Robert]

Fauci says no noticeable impact on cases from vaccines until 30% to 40% of the population is vaccinated. Not before March or April, and he said this before the delays in vaccine distribution and administration became obvious.

That does not make a lot of sense to me. I am really confused why some are claiming that even if you get the vaccine, you may not be immune and can still spread it. Of course you can. The vaccine is to speed up and give herd immunity. Some will still get it, but the most vulnerable should be soon much better protected. By the end of February, I am done with mask wearing. That is plenty of time for vulnerable to get a vaccine. If they have not, then they must not want it. I will not be scared into compliance to something that does not work. Life is risky. I will live it with 99.8% assurance I will be fine. I will wait to get a vaccine until I know all who have to have it are given a dose. Once that has passed, I will get in line somewhere.

PS - Fauci has lied twice. I have little confidence in what he says now.

[Judas Maccabeus]

If a vaccine is 90% effective, than 10% of people can still get it. No vaccine is 100% effective.

Also, even if it is, it takes a week or two for immunity to build. They also do not test before they vaccinate, so since this virus has a long incubation, they may be vaccinating already infected people.

This will take time. I am in priority group 1-B and my group likely will not go till February. Means we can’t count on being immune till Mid March. 2 is also a high risk group, have no projections yet.

Johnson and Johnson phase 3 results are due soon. This was tested as a one shot vaccine, and has fewer storage issues. It is similar to the AstraZenicia vaccine , easily administered, more controversial for some here. This will help immensely.

J.M.