Coronavirus Outbreak

[Dan Z]

Christmas and New Years gathering activity was definitely diminished from past years, but still I suspect a lot of mixing happened. I know we gathered as an immediate family for the holidays, although our kids who traveled in to us either isolated before coming or tested negative for the virus right before arriving.

Anyway, hospitalizations lag exposure by a few weeks, and deaths lag hospitalizations by a few more weeks. That means that we could see a Christmas-New Years spike in hospitalizations Jan 5-15, and a corresponding peak in deaths Jan 20-30.

Do you think that will happen?

[barnhart]

Do you think that will happen?

If my experience over the holidays is any indication, the numbers will not be moving in a good direction in the next couple of weeks. We met with family but soon discovered not everyone had been talking it seriously in the preceding weeks as we had been. I told my wife if we don't have the virus after this, it will be a miracle. Now we are observing quarantine and testing as directed by the state.

[Wade]

In BC no gatherings were allowed for Christmas or New year's except grandparents to visit grandchildren. No visiting brothers and sisters or other family or friends if they are not of the same household. So far every person I have talked to has openly admittedly defied these regulations except for us and people in our the local CA church here.

[Dan Z]

Testing, cases and deaths are bouncing around recently, due I'm sure to holiday reporting and testing disruptions...but hospitalizations have continued to steadily rise throughout. I think that is the true indicator that the disease continues its march of destruction. Sadly, I believe we may have another month of this deadly wave's increase ahead (which includes the effects of holiday gathering) until the Christmas/New Year holiday peak starts to subside and vaccines start to put downward pressure on the infection and death rates. The wildcard in all of this is the new more virulent strain of this disease, which has now been identified in 33 countries and 3 states. This new player, which already accounts for over 60% of England's case load, may keep the case and death numbers from dropping as quickly as they might have otherwise in late-winter and spring. Thankfully, the new strain seems no more deadly and responds to the vaccine the same as the old strain does.

With the New Year, I'm looking ahead to a return to something closer to 'normal" by summer thanks to a combination of the vaccine and a large number of folks who have overcome the virus...but I'm afraid we've got a 2-3 month slog to endure in the interim.

[mike]

Testing, cases and deaths are bouncing around recently, due I'm sure to holiday reporting and testing disruptions...but hospitalizations have continued to steadily rise throughout. I think that is the true indicator that the disease continues its march of destruction. Sadly, I believe we may have another month of this deadly wave's increase ahead (which includes the effects of holiday gathering) until the Christmas/New Year holiday peak starts to subside and vaccines start to put downward pressure on the infection and death rates. The wildcard in all of this is the new more virulent strain of this disease, which has now been identified in 33 countries and 3 states. This new player, which already accounts for over 60% of England's case load, may keep the case and death numbers from dropping as quickly as they might have otherwise in late-winter and spring. Thankfully, the new strain seems no more deadly and responds to the vaccine the same as the old strain does.

With the New Year, I'm looking ahead to a return to something closer to 'normal" by summer thanks to a combination of the vaccine and a large number of folks who have overcome the virus...but I'm afraid we've got a 2-3 month slog to endure in the interim.

Yes, none of the numbers make a lot of sense except hospitalizations, which is to be expected because of the holidays. I expect by some time next week, reporting will catch up so we can get a better picture of where things are. Right now, we may be past some of the most deadly weeks of the virus, we just don't know it yet because of the lag in reporting.

A Mediaite article claims that CDC data suggests we may be looking at more like a half million death toll from COVID.

[Judas Maccabeus]

Testing, cases and deaths are bouncing around recently, due I'm sure to holiday reporting and testing disruptions...but hospitalizations have continued to steadily rise throughout. I think that is the true indicator that the disease continues its march of destruction. Sadly, I believe we may have another month of this deadly wave's increase ahead (which includes the effects of holiday gathering) until the Christmas/New Year holiday peak starts to subside and vaccines start to put downward pressure on the infection and death rates. The wildcard in all of this is the new more virulent strain of this disease, which has now been identified in 33 countries and 3 states. This new player, which already accounts for over 60% of England's case load, may keep the case and death numbers from dropping as quickly as they might have otherwise in late-winter and spring. Thankfully, the new strain seems no more deadly and responds to the vaccine the same as the old strain does.

With the New Year, I'm looking ahead to a return to something closer to 'normal" by summer thanks to a combination of the vaccine and a large number of folks who have overcome the virus...but I'm afraid we've got a 2-3 month slog to endure in the interim.

Yes, none of the numbers make a lot of sense except hospitalizations, which is to be expected because of the holidays. I expect by some time next week, reporting will catch up so we can get a better picture of where things are. Right now, we may be past some of the most deadly weeks of the virus, we just don't know it yet because of the lag in reporting.

A Mediaite article claims that CDC data suggests we may be looking at more like a half million death toll from COVID.

I keep a fairly close eye on the Maryland numbers, and it looks like we are leveling off, but at a higher level than before. Vaccination is really lagging, I have been bumped up a class, because I am now a teacher, (And am over 65, and have underlying conditions) wife has already gotten her first dose. My former work has not been vaccinated, and has no date. Oh well.

J.M.

[mike]

I just noticed that I might be in line to get the vaccine...

https://wlos.com/news/nation-world/cdc- ... -131050916

[Judas Maccabeus]

I just noticed that I might be in line to get the vaccine...

https://wlos.com/news/nation-world/cdc- ... -131050916

See you in line . The more of this stuff they get into people the better. Vaccinated people actually become barriers to transmission.

J.M.

[Dan Z]

Vaccinated people actually become barriers to transmission.

J.M.

That’s a part of my motivation - a practical way of contributing to the end of this thing.

[joshuabgood]

I hope, as a teacher, to get the vaccine in February.