silentreader wrote:That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.
The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.
But is that projection based on the beginning of the virus, with the knowledge we had at that time? Because I think as time went we gained valuable knowledge.
Yes, initial estimates were quite a bit higher, and we are definitely doing better now. But actually based on the latest current numbers, the potential unmitigated death count would still be about 1.5 million.
Here's how based on three variables:
1) The CDC's "best estimate" is that the overall Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is about .65% (age variable).
2) Most epidemiologists estimate that we need about 70% infection rate to reach heard immunity.
3)There are 330 million people in the US.
330 Million (population) X 70% (heard immunity) X .65% (IFR) = 1.5 million potential unmitigated deaths
Even if that IFR dropped to .5%, you would still have over 1 million deaths if the disease was allowed to run its course. If the country ends up with 500K deaths or less, which looks likely (a terrible loss by any measure), this means that mitigation efforts along with vaccine development may have saved as many as 1/2 to 1 million lives!
silentreader wrote:That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.
The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.
That's exactly the same as saying "if everyone would have been wearing masks we would be out of it by now".
The reality does not support that presumption.
Locally the three large hospitals all have outbreaks, both staff and patients, one LTC has 100 infections now, 46 staff and 54 residents, all DESPITE "best practices".
Dan Z wrote:
The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.
But is that projection based on the beginning of the virus, with the knowledge we had at that time? Because I think as time went we gained valuable knowledge.
Yes, initial estimates were quite a bit higher. But actually based on the latest current numbers, the potential unmitigated death count would be about 1.5 million. Here's how based on three variables:
1) The CDC's "best estimate" is that the overall Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is about .65% (age variable).
2) Most epidemiologists estimate that we need about 70% infection rate to reach heard immunity.
3)There are 330 million people in the US.
330 Million (population) X 70% (heard immunity) X .65% (IFR) = 1.5 million potential unmitigated deaths
Obviously they know way more than I do, and are way better qualified to make projections. Beats me. I don't know what they are basing that on. If they are basing it on so many people getting it that the deaths are a result of a lack of health care, I'm not sure about that. But I've been overly optimistic on this thing since the beginning. Maybe still am.
Is the 1.5 million estimate to date, or through when? Was it based on a vaccine in 20 months, or here in December?
I think the vaccine getting here in Dec. is going to make way more difference than masking. But even now, there will be many more deaths before this is over.
Last edited by RZehr on Tue Dec 22, 2020 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
silentreader wrote:That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.
The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.
That's exactly the same as saying "if everyone would have been wearing masks we would be out of it by now".
The reality does not support that presumption.
No, I don't think so at all. Masks aren't a fix - but they are one part of limiting spread (and thus the number of deaths). Frankly, I think distancing is more important, because you cant catch a disease if you aren't in proximity to it. Ultimately, it will be vaccination that puts and end to this disease. The question is, how many will become infected (and die) before vaccines are widely distributed. At the macro-level, it's a numbers game.
Dan Z wrote:
The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.
That's exactly the same as saying "if everyone would have been wearing masks we would be out of it by now".
The reality does not support that presumption.
No, I don't think so at all. Masks aren't a fix - but they are one part of limiting spread (and thus the number of deaths). Frankly, I think distancing is more important, because you cant catch a disease if you aren't in proximity to it. Ultimately, it will be vaccination that puts and end to this disease. The question is, how many will become infected (and die) before vaccines are widely distributed. At the macro-level, it's a numbers game.
Dan, there have been a lot of numbers, estimates, projections, if this, if that, but when the projection and estimate numbers don't actually happen, is that still "science"?
I think any benefit that masks may have diminishes with time spent in situations where infection is present, so that dependence on masking in many situations may actually begin to increase infections.
And no, that's not science either, but I have spent a lot of time trying to discern what is ACTUALLY happening, and it is often at odds with the expectations of the "experts". How many times have they changed their mind about the "science"?
silentreader wrote:That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.
The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.
That's exactly the same as saying "if everyone would have been wearing masks we would be out of it by now".
The reality does not support that presumption.
Locally the three large hospitals all have outbreaks, both staff and patients, one LTC has 100 infections now, 46 staff and 54 residents, all DESPITE "best practices".
Today's update on the LTC, now 50 staff and 56 residents.
The infectious disease expert, 64, was outed on Sunday for not following her own travel guidance when she was joined by three different generations of family at one of her vacation properties on Fenwick Island in Delaware the day after Thanksgiving.
She was roundly criticized for not following her own orders after publicly urging Americans in the days leading up to Thanksgiving to limit gatherings to “your immediate household.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has also warned Americans not to travel over the holidays and had discouraged indoor gatherings involving members of different households as infection rates continue to soar.
And then people wonder why many just say phooey on the restrictions and get together for Christmas and Thanksgiving. What stinking nonsense from our hypocritical public officials, of which Dr Birx is just the latest example.
The infectious disease expert, 64, was outed on Sunday for not following her own travel guidance when she was joined by three different generations of family at one of her vacation properties on Fenwick Island in Delaware the day after Thanksgiving.
She was roundly criticized for not following her own orders after publicly urging Americans in the days leading up to Thanksgiving to limit gatherings to “your immediate household.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has also warned Americans not to travel over the holidays and had discouraged indoor gatherings involving members of different households as infection rates continue to soar.
And then people wonder why many just say phooey on the restrictions and get together for Christmas and Thanksgiving. What stinking nonsense from our hypocritical public officials, of which Dr Birx is just the latest example.
And in an apples/oranges kind of way this is similar to Mennonites, (professing Christians) doing incredibly stupid things like going to a wedding when they are feeling ill. Which happened locally and lit an outbreak, now controlled.
The infectious disease expert, 64, was outed on Sunday for not following her own travel guidance when she was joined by three different generations of family at one of her vacation properties on Fenwick Island in Delaware the day after Thanksgiving.
She was roundly criticized for not following her own orders after publicly urging Americans in the days leading up to Thanksgiving to limit gatherings to “your immediate household.”
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has also warned Americans not to travel over the holidays and had discouraged indoor gatherings involving members of different households as infection rates continue to soar.
And then people wonder why many just say phooey on the restrictions and get together for Christmas and Thanksgiving. What stinking nonsense from our hypocritical public officials, of which Dr Birx is just the latest example.
And in an apples/oranges kind of way this is similar to Mennonites, (professing Christians) doing incredibly stupid things like going to a wedding when they are feeling ill. Which happened locally and lit an outbreak, now controlled.
Jesus was around sick people gathered in public spaces all the time. Instead of telling them to isolate at home, he had a different message.
And then people wonder why many just say phooey on the restrictions and get together for Christmas and Thanksgiving. What stinking nonsense from our hypocritical public officials, of which Dr Birx is just the latest example.
And in an apples/oranges kind of way this is similar to Mennonites, (professing Christians) doing incredibly stupid things like going to a wedding when they are feeling ill. Which happened locally and lit an outbreak, now controlled.
Jesus was around sick people gathered in public spaces all the time. Instead of telling them to isolate at home, he had a different message.
I'm pretty sure this guy wasn't Jesus, and not only that, it was him that was ill. Going to visit sick people and being sick and going to be among healthy people are two different things.