Coronavirus Outbreak

[RZehr]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. there is just too many necessary exception. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Sure hospital space is real. But I don't recall those hospital ships and fairground army hospitals actually being used, so clearly they came up with something. They are steadily understanding better treatments, and are better equipped to know when to send people home to recover, vs. using a hospital bed.

I'm not pretending to be an expert here. Just freely sharing my thoughts.

[ken_sylvania]

I think cases are flattening because we're starting to reach the lower bounds of herd immunity. I expect reported case numbers and hospitalizations to soon start to taper off as a higher percentage of the population develops immunity.

[ken_sylvania]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Hush! You mustn't say things like that!

[RZehr]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Hush! You mustn't say things like that!

Sorry. Voiding ones bladder on the conflagration.

[mike]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. there is just too many necessary exception. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Sure hospital space is real. But I don't recall those hospital ships and fairground army hospitals actually being used, so clearly they came up with something. They are steadily understanding better treatments, and are better equipped to know when to send people home to recover, vs. using a hospital bed.

I'm not pretending to be an expert here. Just freely sharing my thoughts.

I have similar thoughts. I buy the idea that masks do something. Being six feet away might help a little. But being in the same room with someone for an hour or two, you are absolutely going to breathe the same air despite the masks and distancing.

However, I respect the mask and distancing rules when I go out and about, wherever that is requested by the place I'm going to. I don't see it as something that seriously hurts or inconveniences me.

But I do wonder, like you, if these measures really do a lot. And when it comes to the really harsh measures like shutting down or crippling businesses, I can get worked up over those restrictions more so than the little stuff like wearing masks. All I can say is that the state and local governments that are decimating sectors of their economy (while totally juicing other sectors) had better have some thumping good science behind what they are doing there. I really wonder if they do.

[ken_sylvania]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Hush! You mustn't say things like that!

Sorry. Voiding ones bladder on the conflagration.

That wasn't what I was talking about!

[Dan Z]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. there is just too many necessary exception. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Sure hospital space is real. But I don't recall those hospital ships and fairground army hospitals actually being used, so clearly they came up with something. They are steadily understanding better treatments, and are better equipped to know when to send people home to recover, vs. using a hospital bed.

I'm not pretending to be an expert here. Just freely sharing my thoughts.

I believe distancing and barriers work, but I think folks are weary of mitigation efforts...we're social beings and are not equipped to be distancing indefinitely.

I think it works in percentage terms - if a person cuts their contacts by 50% they have cut their chances of becoming infected by that amount. If 100 people do it, or 1000 people or 1 million people do it, some will still get infected, but overall infection and transmission rates will be down quite a bit. People still get sick, but not nearly as many as would get sick with no mitigation. The other thing we don't know is where we would be if we had done nothing. I suspect thousands of lives have been saved by even a little bit of distancing.

[silentreader]

I'm starting to believe that most of the distancing and masking is not making any significant difference. Given all of the essential businesses that must be open etc. there is just too many necessary exception. Sure, if we all really lived in a cave we could make a difference, but this country won't and can't do that.
These measure are like putting out a warehouse fire by peeing on it. Sure, its true that you may put out an ember or two. But in reality, it is wholly insufficient, we don't have and won't have enough participants, and the heat is unbearable. It is out of control. Might as well salvage what is possible.

Yes, technically it all makes sense. But reality is happening in spite of the technical and scientific truths. Yes masks block spit and slow down breath. But somehow people are just getting the virus anyway in these jurisdictions.

Sure hospital space is real. But I don't recall those hospital ships and fairground army hospitals actually being used, so clearly they came up with something. They are steadily understanding better treatments, and are better equipped to know when to send people home to recover, vs. using a hospital bed.

I'm not pretending to be an expert here. Just freely sharing my thoughts.

That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.

[Dan Z]

That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.

The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.

[RZehr]

That's been pretty obvious around here for the 5 or 6 months that mandatory masking has been in effect.
The science all sounds wonderful, but we're missing something, and the numbers continue to rise.

The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.

But is that projection based on the beginning of the virus, with the knowledge we had at that time? Because I think as time went we gained valuable knowledge.