Coronavirus Outbreak

[Ken]

If testing is limited to only those showing symptoms rather than widespread access to testing, wouldn't that also increase the positivity rate?

If in fact COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA than in MD, then it seems to me that either (1) only 25% of PA COVID deaths are being recorded properly, (2) MD deaths due to non-COVID causes are being recorded as COVID, or (3) MD residents who get COVID are much more likely to die from it than PA residents.

It would eventually show up in the hospitalization rate one way or the other. False positives and such don't get hospitalized or put on ventilators.

It will, but both hospitalization and deaths run behind positive tests. So you really do not know if the higher rate of positives are because of a more constrained testing situation, more of the virus out there, or other cultural factors. We also lack data from the future when the people who test positive today show up in need of hospitalization.

I wonder if you have fewer or more beds per population.

Pa hospitalization rates are about 365 per million. Maryland rate is about 262 per million. Data from NY times. So there is definitely more of it up there. How much more remains to be seen. Our public health people are getting concerned about 6%. They are not pulling the panic cord, yet.

It is higher, likely not 5x, but in a highly constrained bed situation, when you get very full, you become more judicious as to who you admit. 100 persons per million is not an anomaly.

J.M.

One of the things I do is track the covid rates in the various places around the world where I have close family. I've been somewhat shocked and surprised that Mifflin County PA (Belleville area) has shot to the very top of the national numbers in terms of covid rate. It is one of the most remote and rural counties in PA and has become one of the top most infected counties in PA and up there with the top most infected counties in the country. I have a lot of family there. They are at 4,452 cases per 100,000 with a 21% positive test rate. So the pandemic is really taking root in the most rural parts of the state. https://www.covidactnow.org/us/pa/count ... ?s=1400376

[Robert]

Thank you. He was eventually put on oxygen, was at 88. This morning, based on his group texts, he is doing okay.

D3, Zinc and HCQ.

[Robert]

A good question. IN GOD WE TRUST. Really ? We do ?

I think this may be one of the areas of poorest testimony when it comes to how we stand out from the fears and anxieties that this world is so caught up with. For the Christ follower we are to expect sufferings in this life and these are just not the persecution that comes from spreading the Gospel. We are not guaranteed to be sick free until this mortal puts on immortality.

50 to 75 years ago, people living till they were in their 70's was not common. Now, we panic because of a 99.5% survival rate for Covid in that age bracket.

[GaryK]

This story is the kind of nonsense that cause people not to take Covid seriously. Watch the video.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/restauran ... ywood-pass

[Sudsy]

A good question. IN GOD WE TRUST. Really ? We do ?

I think this may be one of the areas of poorest testimony when it comes to how we stand out from the fears and anxieties that this world is so caught up with. For the Christ follower we are to expect sufferings in this life and these are just not the persecution that comes from spreading the Gospel. We are not guaranteed to be sick free until this mortal puts on immortality.

50 to 75 years ago, people living till they were in their 70's was not common. Now, we panic because of a 99.5% survival rate for Covid in that age bracket.

Good point. It really is amazing to me the power the media has over how we are to perceive things. For the Christ Follower we can not allow them this control of our minds. We have been set free from that way of thinking and what really encourages me is when other brothers and sisters in Christ spur me on to not get sucked in. If Christ as set us free scripture says we will be free indeed.

Satan is the great deceiver, the father of lies. We are not a warring group when it comes to flesh and blood but we very much are to be at war and need to keep on that full armour the NT speaks about. In one sense the battle is over but in another sense there is this guerrilla warfare where Satan wants to take all those he can with him.

For we live by faith and not by sight.

[Judas Maccabeus]

It would eventually show up in the hospitalization rate one way or the other. False positives and such don't get hospitalized or put on ventilators.

It will, but both hospitalization and deaths run behind positive tests. So you really do not know if the higher rate of positives are because of a more constrained testing situation, more of the virus out there, or other cultural factors. We also lack data from the future when the people who test positive today show up in need of hospitalization.

I wonder if you have fewer or more beds per population.

Pa hospitalization rates are about 365 per million. Maryland rate is about 262 per million. Data from NY times. So there is definitely more of it up there. How much more remains to be seen. Our public health people are getting concerned about 6%. They are not pulling the panic cord, yet.

It is higher, likely not 5x, but in a highly constrained bed situation, when you get very full, you become more judicious as to who you admit. 100 persons per million is not an anomaly.

J.M.

One of the things I do is track the covid rates in the various places around the world where I have close family. I've been somewhat shocked and surprised that Mifflin County PA (Belleville area) has shot to the very top of the national numbers in terms of covid rate. It is one of the most remote and rural counties in PA and has become one of the top most infected counties in PA and up there with the top most infected counties in the country. I have a lot of family there. They are at 4,452 cases per 100,000 with a 21% positive test rate. So the pandemic is really taking root in the most rural parts of the state. https://www.covidactnow.org/us/pa/count ... ?s=1400376

I have friends from Belleville, and that is what I am hearing from them. I am personally avoiding PA entirely for now.

J.M.

[mike]

It would eventually show up in the hospitalization rate one way or the other. False positives and such don't get hospitalized or put on ventilators.

It will, but both hospitalization and deaths run behind positive tests. So you really do not know if the higher rate of positives are because of a more constrained testing situation, more of the virus out there, or other cultural factors. We also lack data from the future when the people who test positive today show up in need of hospitalization.

I wonder if you have fewer or more beds per population.

Pa hospitalization rates are about 365 per million. Maryland rate is about 262 per million. Data from NY times. So there is definitely more of it up there. How much more remains to be seen. Our public health people are getting concerned about 6%. They are not pulling the panic cord, yet.

It is higher, likely not 5x, but in a highly constrained bed situation, when you get very full, you become more judicious as to who you admit. 100 persons per million is not an anomaly.

J.M.

One of the things I do is track the covid rates in the various places around the world where I have close family. I've been somewhat shocked and surprised that Mifflin County PA (Belleville area) has shot to the very top of the national numbers in terms of covid rate. It is one of the most remote and rural counties in PA and has become one of the top most infected counties in PA and up there with the top most infected counties in the country. I have a lot of family there. They are at 4,452 cases per 100,000 with a 21% positive test rate. So the pandemic is really taking root in the most rural parts of the state. https://www.covidactnow.org/us/pa/count ... ?s=1400376

I put in my county on that website, and found the very same thing in our county ("Severe Outbreak"). Ever since the beginning, our county had 3 deaths until just recently. Almost overnight, we suddenly have 44. So, what happened? The virus hit our nursing homes. This is the same thing that happened elsewhere earlier in the year.

I wouldn't be surprised if that same phenomenon is driving the numbers in Mifflin County. I wonder if there's anywhere to find daily stats on deaths by age, or any other contextual information on the death numbers. Such information would be useful.

[mike]

Nationally, the 7-day average deaths per day is now over 2,000 again. The last time we saw that was the end of April, when the average rate remained over 2,000 per day for about 20 days straight. We are at 287,611 deaths from the virus as of today.

[mike]

I wonder if there's anywhere to find daily stats on deaths by age, or any other contextual information on the death numbers. Such information would be useful.

These aren't daily stats, but the following data from the CDC as of today shows some total deaths stats by age.



There are a lot of ways to parse this information. But one thing I noticed is that in the most vulnerable age cohorts (65 and older), COVID deaths are only 10% of deaths from all causes for that cohort. In other words, even if you are 80 years old, you are still 10 times more likely to die of something else other than COVID. Am I thinking correctly here?

[justme]

One of the things I do is track the covid rates in the various places around the world where I have close family. I've been somewhat shocked and surprised that Mifflin County PA (Belleville area) has shot to the very top of the national numbers in terms of covid rate. It is one of the most remote and rural counties in PA and has become one of the top most infected counties in PA and up there with the top most infected counties in the country. I have a lot of family there. They are at 4,452 cases per 100,000 with a 21% positive test rate. So the pandemic is really taking root in the most rural parts of the state. https://www.covidactnow.org/us/pa/count ... ?s=1400376

I have friends from Belleville, and that is what I am hearing from them. I am personally avoiding PA entirely for now.

J.M.

it's really bad here. and i'm one of the statistics. fortunately, i had a very easy time of it, cough, stuffed head, loss of smell, and tiredness. but the lingering fatigue and even shortness of breath w exertion isn't a whole lot of fun.