Coronavirus Outbreak

[Judas Maccabeus]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54566730

This is really bad news, but is why large scale studies are run in the first place.

J.M.

[Dan Z]

I’m new to epidemiology - With 90% of the population still uninflected, is there evidence that pandemics might behave this way?

As in sound harmonics, a vaccine will interrupt the wave and can cancel it if used correctly. Good therapeutics will do similar. Interrupting the wave can completely cancel it.

We know the virus is mostly dangerous for 70+. If it reverberates in society, but is causing little harm, then it just becomes some of the background noise. Once a vaccine is released, it will be used on front line workers and the elderly. Even with only 10% of the population having immunity, the virus will have little affect and this will interrupt the wave, cancelling most of the "noise" it is causing.

Within months, the vulnerable will get vaccines. Since there are so many hitting, there will be plenty to access. It will interrupt the wave pattern of the virus and we will most likely see the end of the pandemic quickly. The whole world will not need to be vaccinated for this to happen, only the vulnerable.

This makes sense to me Robert.

For my organization (a large Christian camp and retreat center) I have been trying to get an early handle on what to expect financially by next summer. This pandemic has sadly caused a 90% loss of business for us this year. I am baking into my 2021 budget that from now through May we will still be quite limited in social gatherings due to COVID restrictions...but my hope is that we won't loose another summer to the pandemic. I figure that by summer the front line workers and the most vulnerable will have already been inoculated. In addition, by then a sizable percentage of the population (perhaps 30%) will have been infected. These two factors should be sufficient to "disrupt the wave" and limit the risk of viral spread to the point where significant social easing can happen (likely with some ongoing hygiene and distancing protocol's still in place). Thus I'm budgeting for 25% of normal in the spring, 75% of normal in the summer, and closer to normal for next fall.

Does this seem reasonable to you folks?

[mike]

Thus I'm budgeting for 25% of normal in the spring, 75% of normal in the summer, and closer to normal for next fall.

Does this seem reasonable to you folks?

I'm afraid it probably is, but it's just very hard to know at this point. I feel sorry for people who have to plan so far. In my business, I have to worry and wonder how long the increased revenues will last. The way it has been the past six months is almost unsustainable for our current business infrastructure. I'm having the opposite problem of yours...

[mike]

Just more of the same... daily new cases heading toward a third peak, while daily new deaths are still trending slowly down. The most interesting thing about the third wave is that it has not yet resulted in any increase in the daily deaths count.

[Dan Z]

Thus I'm budgeting for 25% of normal in the spring, 75% of normal in the summer, and closer to normal for next fall.

Does this seem reasonable to you folks?

I'm afraid it probably is, but it's just very hard to know at this point. I feel sorry for people who have to plan so far. In my business, I have to worry and wonder how long the increased revenues will last. The way it has been the past six months is almost unsustainable for our current business infrastructure. I'm having the opposite problem of yours...

Yeah the whole economy is changed for us all - since 70% of our revenue occurs in just a few months, there are staffing, purchasing and cashflow implications that run well ahead of us. All along this has been uncharted territory as far as planning has been concerned. Of course we'll adjust as we go along, but in the fall is when we start to put together the budget for the following year.

[Dan Z]

The most interesting thing about the third wave is that it has not yet resulted in any increase in the daily deaths count.

I'm holding out hope that this trend, with little relationship between cases and deaths, continues - but the pragmatist in me doesn't see how it can.

[Ken]

Thus I'm budgeting for 25% of normal in the spring, 75% of normal in the summer, and closer to normal for next fall.

Does this seem reasonable to you folks?

I expect a widely available vaccine to open things up really quickly, even if Covid cases aren't immediately squelched to zero. Because it will quickly shift the dynamic to one of personal responsibility rather than shared responsibility. If you refuse a vaccine and catch Covid, that's your problem more than a societal problem. Just like people who get heart disease or cancer due to bad personal choices.

The onus will quickly shift away from restaurants, bars, hotels, airlines, sports venues, and so forth to take every last step to protect customers, and it will fall on individuals to protect themselves. I expect the government to actually accelerate that trend by quickly relaxing guidelines once citizens have the means to protect themselves through a vaccine.

So in my mind, the real answer has to to with vaccine availability, not Covid numbers. There were a LOT of events postponed from summer 2020 to summer 2021 so you might even be more busy than normal. I'm organizing a big family reunion that was scheduled for July 2020 at a facility in OR that sounds similar to yours. We rolled it over to 2021. I expect that happened all over the place. I bet wedding venues are going to absolutely be popping next summer with all the postponed summer weddings.

But of course that all depends on a vaccine.

[Judas Maccabeus]

I would not count on wide distribution, at least not initially. From what I am hearing, the ones likely to be approved quickly have handling requirements that will put doctor's offices and retail pharmacies out of the game. I doubt if they will be able to handle the short expiry times after this is taken off of dry ice. This would lend itself to mass clinics only. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.

IF it is mass clinics only, look at covid testing to see how this will work out. They will need a whole lot of resources, and I don't see them coming, other than them trying to recruit my now retired wife.

Even though I am no longer priority one, I will try to get as far to the front of the line as I can.

J.M.

[Ken]

I would not count on wide distribution, at least not initially. From what I am hearing, the ones likely to be approved quickly have handling requirements that will put doctor's offices and retail pharmacies out of the game. I doubt if they will be able to handle the short expiry times after this is taken off of dry ice. This would lend itself to mass clinics only. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it.

IF it is mass clinics only, look at covid testing to see how this will work out. They will need a whole lot of resources, and I don't see them coming, other than them trying to recruit my now retired wife.

Even though I am no longer priority one, I will try to get as far to the front of the line as I can.

J.M.

Maybe I'm being optimistic. But I expect those resources will be there. We are talking about a Marshall Plan type public health mobilization. States will spend they money if it means quicker re-openings as they are bleeding billions of dollars per month by continued closing of the economy.

My wife works for Kaiser here in the Pacific Northwest. They have two large hospitals in the Portland area and several dozen regional clinics of various sizes. I would expect them to completely mobilize all hands when a vaccine is available and basically stop all nonessential work temporarily. It is in their interest to do so as they will want to stop admitting expensive Covid patients to their hospitals. Right now their clinic parking lots are basically tent cities as they are doing drive-up mass drive-up flu shot clinics outdoors. Yes, a Covid-vaccine has different handling issues, but they are good to go with everything else.

I also expect future Federal funding bills to cover most of the cost, if not up front then through back-end reimbursements. The current Covid relief bill still, apparently under negotiation has enormous sums of money for this. If it doesn't pass then it will be back in January in some form as item #1 for the new Congress.

Surely the Trump's Operation Warp Speed, for which they are spending many billions of dollars is including vaccine deployment in their planning efforts, not just development and production. They would not be that incompetent.

Am I being naïve?

[Robert]

Surely the Trump's Operation Warp Speed, for which they are spending many billions of dollars is including vaccine deployment in their planning efforts, not just development and production. They would not be that incompetent.

President Trump has said he plans on using the military to help distribute and disperse any vaccines, so they would most likely handle a lot of the logistics. I think this is a part of what he is counting on and others may not be considering. We will have to wait to see if it actually happens the way he wants to do it.

What makes sense is to vaccinate front line workers and elderly especially those in long term care centers. This might make it easier to do with complicated vaccines until easier to manage ones come on line.