Coronavirus Outbreak

[MaxPC]

Not to open a can of vaccination worms but...
the dark side of vaccinations will keep individuals from getting them. There have been individuals who developed Guillain-Barré after vaccinations. While the percentage is low, the inability to predict who will be affected presents a major fear factor.

It was primarily linked to the “Swine Flu” vaccination that came around when I was in college. These new vaccines are of types that we have never seen. Except for one of the Chinese candidates, I think these are all different methodologies, no chicken eggs were used in this process. I am personally a bit leery of the adenovirus methods, and far less concerned about the “Spike Protein “ types. (Disclaimer: I know people who have done work on the Novavax effort, and it is the hometown favorite ). I would line up for that one today if it was available. Seemingly much less to go wrong.

If there will be a group of serious reactions with any of these is a “Known unknown.”

JM.

You and I know that but the fear factor regarding all vaccines is an exponential expression of earlier failures and complications.

[mike]

Daily new cases still trending up:



Daily new deaths still trending slowly down. The fact that it has been four weeks now since cases started rising again around September 13, and we are not seeing a corresponding rise in deaths yet, is a good sign.

[Dan Z]

Thinking about the relationship of infections to deaths, and why it was so much worse during the first wave.

• 1) We have already surmised that that treatments have greatly improved, reducing mortality.
  2) We've also said that the first wave disproportionality affected older and infirmed Americans.
  3) The third reason is that more and better testing has done a better job of identifying the mildly ill and asymptomatic cases.

These three things combined mean we are getting a truer picture of disease mortality as time and information progress.

The latest CDC Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is about .65% (about six times more deadly than the flu), with fatality is skewed heavily to folks above 70, who are 11 times more likely to die than people in their 50's and 60s, and hundreds of times more likely to die than folks younger than 50. For those under 20, COVID is less deadly than the flu.

[ohio jones]

The fact that it has been four weeks now since cases started rising again around September 13, and we are not seeing a corresponding rise in deaths yet, is a good sign.

Notice the pattern in the top graph. An increase roughly every three months, but the slope of the upward trend decreases each time. This is reflected even more dramatically in the bottom graph, where if the trend continues the latest increase in new cases might look like a leveling out rather than continuing to slowly taper off.

[Ken]

The fact that it has been four weeks now since cases started rising again around September 13, and we are not seeing a corresponding rise in deaths yet, is a good sign.

Notice the pattern in the top graph. An increase roughly every three months, but the slope of the upward trend decreases each time. This is reflected even more dramatically in the bottom graph, where if the trend continues the latest increase in new cases might look like a leveling out rather than continuing to slowly taper off.

But what we are seeing in those graphs is really the aggregate of 50 different states. There is no single location in the US that matches the aggregate US graphs. Some places (mostly in the north) experienced early first waves. Others (mostly in the south and midwest/plains) experienced later first waves. Now we are starting to see second waves in some areas while others (like the Dakotas) are still on their first waves.

One thing is true though, we seem to be getting much better at treating this disease. The rising infection rates in some areas don't seem to be producing the overflowing hospitals and morgues like they did in March and April.

[Ken]

I found this infographic summary of the progress on vaccines to be informative. Apparently there are 10 different promising vaccines around the world in the final stage III testing phase.

[Robert]

The rising infection rates in some areas don't seem to be producing the overflowing hospitals and morgues like they did in March and April.

Most of that was from the New York City metro. I would suggest that their treatment and mitigation efforts were poorly designed compared to some other states plans. Many protected the elderly much better.

[Judas Maccabeus]

I found this infographic summary of the progress on vaccines to be informative. Apparently there are 10 different promising vaccines around the world in the final stage III testing phase.

The Pfizer/BiOnTech/Fosun MRna vaccine is in phase 3. It appears to be missing, and is deep into Phase 3. It and Moderna are both the most likely to be approved quickly, they have no holds on their trials.

Both of these, if i understand require special handling that includes dry ice, with narrow reconstitution to use windows. You won’t find these in the local pharmacy, unless the cold chain game is really stepped up.

The only one i know of that is in Phase 3 that can be handled more like a conventional vaccine is Novavax. But than again, I don’t pretend to be neutral. I do, however, wish all of them quick success.

J.M.

[RZehr]

I found this infographic summary of the progress on vaccines to be informative. Apparently there are 10 different promising vaccines around the world in the final stage III testing phase.

Does anyone know which of these are not based on aborted fetus material and which are? Yes, I suppose I'm rounding off the corner. But I suppose you get my question.

[Ken]

Does anyone know which of these are not based on aborted fetus material and which are? Yes, I suppose I'm rounding off the corner. But I suppose you get my question.

The green ones in the diagram (non-replicating adenovirus vaccines) are probably the ones that do rely on stem cells for vaccine replication. But that's just a guess on my part based on my pretty layman's knowledge of how they are made.