Israel strikes Iran

[JohnH]

i understand nothing.

Video captures moment missile hits buildings in Tel Aviv
https://www.albawaba.com/news/video-cap ... ts-1606738

ALBAWABA - Iran conducted a massive missile strike on Israel Thursday night, its most powerful direct attack on Israeli land to date, in a dramatic escalation of regional tensions. Only eighteen hours had passed since Israel launched a broad military campaign against Iranian sites when the attack occurred.

Also Read
Several Iranian missiles hit various areas in IsraelSeveral Iranian missiles hit various areas in Israel
Iran Issues a Serious Warning and Verifies Strikes ..

Perhaps Israel shouldn’t have struck first. This is like Russia complaining when Ukraine fights back.

[mike]

i understand nothing.

Video captures moment missile hits buildings in Tel Aviv
https://www.albawaba.com/news/video-cap ... ts-1606738

ALBAWABA - Iran conducted a massive missile strike on Israel Thursday night, its most powerful direct attack on Israeli land to date, in a dramatic escalation of regional tensions. Only eighteen hours had passed since Israel launched a broad military campaign against Iranian sites when the attack occurred.

Also Read
Several Iranian missiles hit various areas in IsraelSeveral Iranian missiles hit various areas in Israel
Iran Issues a Serious Warning and Verifies Strikes ..

Perhaps Israel shouldn’t have struck first. This is like Russia complaining when Ukraine fights back.

All these US politicians on X praying for Israel right now. I'm sorry, but it's ridiculous.

[temporal1]

i didn’t read it as a complaint. just a report of what was/is happening.
from a third party source?
https://www.albawaba.com/abstatic/about-us

[Nomad]

i understand nothing.

Video captures moment missile hits buildings in Tel Aviv
https://www.albawaba.com/news/video-cap ... ts-1606738

Perhaps Israel shouldn’t have struck first. This is like Russia complaining when Ukraine fights back.

All these US politicians on X praying for Israel right now. I'm sorry, but it's ridiculous.

I agree. We should make a point to pray for both Israel AND Iran as true Christians. Not one or the other...

[JohnH]

It’s particularly galling to see “prayer” for a belligerent.

[Nomad]

It’s particularly galling to see “prayer” for a belligerent.

They're both belligerent in this case...but regardless. We should pray for both.

[temporal1]

It’s particularly galling to see “prayer” for a belligerent.

They're both belligerent in this case...but regardless. We should pray for both.

This much, i do understand.

[Ken]

So what is the end game here? Anyone have any guesses?

Actual war with Iran is unwinnable in any conventional sense. Neither Israel nor Israel and the US combined have the capability to win a conventional war against Iran. It would take millions of troops and a logistics capacity that we have lacked since WW2. Iran is the size of Germany, France, and Spain combined. The US occupation force in Germany at the end of WW2 was 1.6 million troops. And that was just for the American sector. The British, French, and USSR had millions more in their sectors. Where would those troops come from? Israel can’t tie down Gaza and that is about 360 square km. Iran, by contrast is 1.6 MILLION square km with a population of 90 million.

Ending the Iranian nuclear program is likely impossible with air strikes alone. Strategic air wars have a place as they did in WW2. But this precision strike stuff isn’t going to get that done. And strategic air wars of the WW2 variety were never about eliminating specific targets. They had other objectives.

Regime change is likely uncontrollable as we found in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We can possibly decapitate and bring down a regime as we did with Saddam Hussein and the original Taliban. But controlling what replaces it is impossible. At least without millions of occupying troops and decades. And in a world where might makes right, the most vicious regime opponents are the ones likely to fill the vacuum and rise to the top.

So again, what is the end game here? Do they have one?

[JohnH]

It’s particularly galling to see “prayer” for a belligerent.

They're both belligerent in this case...but regardless. We should pray for both.

There really wasn't any reason for Israel to start up with their airstrikes. "Iran is developing nuclear weapons!" is a refrain I have been hearing my entire life - and doesn't Israel have nuclear weapons, too? Would it be OK for Iran to conduct airstrikes against Israel because they are building nuclear bombs?

[JohnH]

So what is the end game here? Anyone have any guesses?

The endgame I see is that Iran moves a lot closer to North Korea and gets nuclear capabilities faster that way, and the two countries start cooperating on rocket technology - if they haven't already. I was a bit surprised to see a ballistic missile made it past the Iron Dome today, although it struck about 400 yards off from its target. (The target seems to have been a building that houses various Israeli military facilities - on Google Maps, it is not there. It is just an empty park, "green" on Google Maps. When you're standing in front of it, though... there's a building there with lights on and all kinds of antennae on the roof.)

So this will have a few effects:

1. Iran gets closer to nuclear technology and other "rogue" states will draw closer to Iran.
2. Iran will probably start to play around with hypersonic missiles. Russia has already developed them, although they haven't used them other than a demonstration with no explosive warhead against Ukraine once.
3. North Korea ends up stronger because of this.
4. Iran may end up eventually being a nuclear state, which is a big minus for us.
5. The Iranian political leadership gets a big boost in public support, which was formerly flagging. Israel doing this is the best thing that could have possibly happened to the Iranian power structure - other than the few guys they assassinated, that is.
6. Netanyahu manages to make himself still be relevant and dodge losing his office and facing prosecution from the 49% or so of Israelis who really don't like him.
7. Attempts to normalize relations between both Israel and other Arab states, and U.S.-Arab relations, get worse as a result, because this kind of thing is extremely unpopular with the average Arab person.

It's also apparent Israel is going off and making these decisions on their own, but trying to drag the rest of the West with them. They have a long history of doing this.

This is also a big gift to Russia, who is otherwise losing left and right, but now gets to be relevant since they are buddies with Iran, and most of the world will condemn the Israelis for this. This just made every Russian diplomat's job easier as they are trying to ink crooked deals in Africa and other places for arms sales.