Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Bootstrap]

This is looking like an epic miscalculation on Putin's part. I expect they thought it was going to go more like their annexation of Crimea which was nearly bloodless. Troops just rolled in and it was done. But all of Europe is rapidly turning against Russia. Opinion polls in Finland now favor joining NATO for the first time ever, by large majorities. And all of the former Warsaw Pact countries are coming out strongly in favor of Ukraine. If Putin was trying to make a case against NATO he most certainly failed. He is making a compelling case for NATO. Putin is finding out that he has very few friends in the west, and losing those few he had.

The other thing to watch is how the sanctions are working. It looks like they are starting to bite. The Ruble is crashing today and the Russian central bank is taking desperate measures to prop it up by pushing the interest rate on Russian bonds up to 20%. Which is way up in junk bond status. Runs on banks are happening across Russia and they implemented an emergency closure of the Russian stock market to prevent the bottom from falling out. Russian banks with branches in Europe are on the edge of bankruptcy. If one favors alternatives to war, these are them.

After Georgia, Syria, and the Crimea, this must be quite a surprise for Putin. All of his recent experience is that there would not be much of a reaction. Perhaps the reaction is stronger because Putin's war speech implicitly threatened the sovereignty of several other countries as well?

[temporal1]

No agreements made during talks this morning.

(i hope) the important words are: “second round of negotiations” ^^^ ..

.. Perhaps the reaction is stronger because Putin's war speech implicitly threatened the sovereignty of several other countries as well?

NATO’s complicity leading up to and response merits sober consideration.

[Dan Z]

This is looking like an epic miscalculation on Putin's part. I expect they thought it was going to go more like their annexation of Crimea which was nearly bloodless. Troops just rolled in and it was done. But all of Europe is rapidly turning against Russia. Opinion polls in Finland now favor joining NATO for the first time ever, by large majorities. And all of the former Warsaw Pact countries are coming out strongly in favor of Ukraine. If Putin was trying to make a case against NATO he most certainly failed. He is making a compelling case for NATO. Putin is finding out that he has very few friends in the west, and losing those few he had.

The other thing to watch is how the sanctions are working. It looks like they are starting to bite. The Ruble is crashing today and the Russian central bank is taking desperate measures to prop it up by pushing the interest rate on Russian bonds up to 20%. Which is way up in junk bond status. Runs on banks are happening across Russia and they implemented an emergency closure of the Russian stock market to prevent the bottom from falling out. Russian banks with branches in Europe are on the edge of bankruptcy. If one favors alternatives to war, these are them.

After Georgia, Syria, and the Crimea, this must be quite a surprise for Putin. All of his recent experience is that there would not be much of a reaction. Perhaps the reaction is stronger because Putin's war speech implicitly threatened the sovereignty of several other countries as well?

I continue to be impressed with the unprecedented strength of the sanctions - but war and punishment seldom go as expected. I sorrow for the Russian people who will bear the brunt of the economic pain. I'm sadder yet for the people of Ukraine, who are losing so much as a result of Russian power politics.

Troubling questions that come to my mind:

• Will the sanctions weaken Putin, or simply enrage and embolden him in Ukraine...and perhaps beyond?
  
  Will Putin ever reach a point of deranged desperation and rain Nuclear hell down on the west? Ar there checks and balances in russia to keep this from happening?
  
  What will the world order look like post-invasion?
  
  Will China opportunistically step in to exploit the turmoil?
  
  Will we who follow Christ's teaching to love our enemies and turn the other cheek be tested in this commitment?
  
  Will people awaken in a new way to faith and the way of Christ as a result of all of this turmoil?

[Szdfan]

NATO’s complicity leading up to and response merits sober consideration.

I'm curious what you think NATO is complicit of.

[Sudsy]

How wonderful to be able to chose to live in the peace of God. I have no concern that whatever happens it will be something that God allows to happen as He is omnipotent. I just need to trust that He allows what He allows to happen for His purposes. I can rest in that.

[Josh]

NATO’s complicity leading up to and response merits sober consideration.

I'm curious what you think NATO is complicit of.

Acting like a bunch of thugs and warlords, for one.

[Bootstrap]

After Georgia, Syria, and the Crimea, this must be quite a surprise for Putin. All of his recent experience is that there would not be much of a reaction. Perhaps the reaction is stronger because Putin's war speech implicitly threatened the sovereignty of several other countries as well?

I continue to be impressed with the unprecedented strength of the sanctions - but war and punishment seldom go as expected. I sorrow for the Russian people who will bear the brunt of the economic pain. I'm sadder yet for the people of Ukraine, who are losing so much as a result of Russian power politics.

Troubling questions that come to my mind:

1. Will the sanctions weaken Putin, or simply enrage and embolden him in Ukraine...and perhaps beyond?
2. Will Putin ever reach a point of deranged desperation and rain Nuclear hell down on the west? Are there checks and balances in Russia to keep this from happening?
3. What will the world order look like post-invasion?
4. Will China opportunistically step in to exploit the turmoil?
5. Will we who follow Christ's teaching to love our enemies and turn the other cheek be tested in this commitment?
6. Will people awaken in a new way to faith and the way of Christ as a result of all of this turmoil?

I took the liberty of adding numbers. For 1-4, I really don't know. But God doesn't promise us the world will be stable or predictable.

For 5-6. I hope so, but most Orthodox Christians are not pacifist and most Christians in that area are Orthodox. Every example of Christian love will be a witness. We can't control what they do, but we can control what we do. Welcoming refugees, praying, grieving.

[Bootstrap]

I'm curious what you think NATO is complicit of.

Acting like a bunch of thugs and warlords, for one.

Has NATO ever invaded Russia or any of Russia's neighbors or threatened to do so? As far as I can tell, NATO's mission is defensive.

Without NATO, I rather suspect Russia would have taken over Western Europe. And most governments in Western Europe certainly believed that, which is the reason NATO exists in the first place.

Obviously, the KOG can't join NATO. But there's a huge difference between invading a country that is no threat to you and creating a pact to defend against an authoritarian government that is seeking to build an empire in your neighborhood by military force. Let's avoid saying things that could be interpreted as saying that Putin's invasion was somehow justified. It wasn't.

That really is like claiming a rapist and a woman who was raped are on the same ground morally. Yes, they were both participants in a rape, but they were not doing the same thing, there is a huge difference in their moral culpability even if she fought back. The same holds for a country that manages to get itself invaded by an authoritarian leader trying to restore a former empire by military force. It did not choose to get invaded.

[Josh]

That really is like claiming a rapist and a woman who was raped are on the same ground morally. Yes, they were both participants in a rape, but they were not doing the same thing, there is a huge difference in their moral culpability even if she fought back. The same holds for a country that manages to get itself invaded by an authoritarian leader trying to restore a former empire by military force. It did not choose to get invaded.

Do you have any commentary, then, on the people of Donetsk and Luhansk and their desire not to deal with attacks from neo-Nazis who are part of the Ukranian National Guard?

[Ernie]

I've never heard of this in warfare before. Is this something that has been done frequently?

Ukraine is offering Russian soldiers cash to stop fighting in a Kremlin-ordered invasion of the country.

“We offer Russian soldiers a choice: to die in an unjust war or a full amnesty and 5 million rubles in compensation. If they lay down their arms and surrender voluntarily,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a statement posted to the department’s Twitter account.