I disagree with the first half of Robert's post too. Trump was pushing for a FASTER withdrawal from Afghanistan, not slower.temporal1 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:30 am No “magic fairy dust.” ^^^![]()
Robert does a nice job of describing how leaders function differently, and response to different approaches varies:temporal1 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:23 amRobert wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:31 am I think that if President Trump was still in office, the transition would have been slower, but the same end result.
I also think he would have put pressure on some other Middle East states through his work on the Abraham Accords.
I actually think he would have brought more states into that and it would have been able to put more pressure on the Taliban.
He would have also used air power to slow the speed of advance, but I also think that the end would have been close to the same.
People in the Middle East and other countries knew President Trump would hit back.
This would have slowed the process.
And I don't think Trump would have "used air power to slow the Taliban advance" because his own military would have told him that to do so would have been ineffective and counterproductive. This was not Wehrmacht or Red Army tank columns rolling across open plains that could be targeted by air. This was small groups of Taliban rolling through crowded civilian cities on foot and with pickup trucks. How do you use air power from 30,000 ft. to stop these guys in their pickup truck without blowing up the whole city? How can you even tell they are Taliban from 30,000 ft. in the air and not some innocent family on the way to the market?

And Afghanistan isn't really part of the Middle East. It is part of Central Asia. The relevant countries involved with Afghanistan are Pakistan, Iran, China, and the former Soviet Republics to the north. Which are either allies of the Taliban or opponents of US policy. Not the Gulf and Mediterranean states of Bahrain, UAE, and Morocco that were involved in the Abraham Accords. The only Gulf State involved with the Taliban is Saudi Arabia and the Taliban is their creation and a weapon in their geopolitical struggle with Iran.
I agree with Robert's second point that US intervention in Afghanistan was a 20-year mistake. But I disagree with his idea that air power and bombing could have any effect on political developments on the ground. Air strikes didn't work in Vietnam, Cambodia, Yugoslavia, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, or Yemen. And they didn't work for the past 20 years in Afghanistan. I don't think there is any reason to think things would have been any different in Afghanistan now.