Think Biblically Podcast: Economics and the Fertility Gap

[Ernie]

For example the eastern European communists tried this and ended up with state orphanages full of abandoned children.

Can you tell us more about this?

[Ernie]

I wonder if falling fertility is a self correction device God has built in to human civilization so that societies who cannot reproduce hope and vision don't grow bigger. But that is probably a topic for another thread.

Let's start such a thread!

[ohio jones]

For example the eastern European communists tried this and ended up with state orphanages full of abandoned children.

Can you tell us more about this?

Wasn't relief work in Romanian orphanages one of the first things CAM did?

[barnhart]

For example the eastern European communists tried this and ended up with state orphanages full of abandoned children.

Can you tell us more about this?

Communist regimes in many countries tried to raise birth rates at various times, the Soviet Union, Poland, Romania even China under Mao. The strategies employed included banning abortion and contraception, financial incentives for births, financial penalties for single or childless adults and medals or honor ceremonies for mothers of multiple children. Probably more...

[barnhart]

I wonder if falling fertility is a self correction device God has built in to human civilization so that societies who cannot reproduce hope and vision don't grow bigger. But that is probably a topic for another thread.

Let's start such a thread!

It's similar to my theory that God confuses communication to disrupt unity when a nation or empire reaches the tipping point where it will produce more evil than good.

[Praxis+Theodicy]

In the parts of the South where there is economic opportunity for them, they seem to figure out a way to migrate, whether permanently or seasonally. In rural areas, we just don't see much migration, I assume because there just isn't that much economic opportunity. An exception is the 20+ Amish families that have migrated into the area in the last couple of years, but they seem to create their own opportunities.

Immigrants from outside the west or from non-English-speaking cultures tend to prioritize the cities because these immigrants are stepping outside of their culture into a place where the wider culture is alien to them. For such people, everything, (including factors we boil down to "economic opportunity") is extremely difficult to access unless there is an established population of likeminded people to offer you support in getting started. Many immigrants (other than, say, those buying America's "Gold Card") are starting off with near-zero resources, and rely on mutual aid to get a footing in a society with such a high wealth-floor as America. This mutual aid is usually provided most readily by like-minded people. So you see Jamaicans move into the same area together, Chinese, Jewish, Italians, Haitians, West Africans, etc. That's why you see (in cities) neighborhoods referred to as "Chinatown", or "Little Italy", because of the migrant population moving in there together.

[barnhart]

In the parts of the South where there is economic opportunity for them, they seem to figure out a way to migrate, whether permanently or seasonally. In rural areas, we just don't see much migration, I assume because there just isn't that much economic opportunity. An exception is the 20+ Amish families that have migrated into the area in the last couple of years, but they seem to create their own opportunities.

Immigrants from outside the west or from non-English-speaking cultures tend to prioritize the cities because these immigrants are stepping outside of their culture into a place where the wider culture is alien to them. For such people, everything, (including factors we boil down to "economic opportunity") is extremely difficult to access unless there is an established population of likeminded people to offer you support in getting started. Many immigrants (other than, say, those buying America's "Gold Card") are starting off with near-zero resources, and rely on mutual aid to get a footing in a society with such a high wealth-floor as America. This mutual aid is usually provided most readily by like-minded people. So you see Jamaicans move into the same area together, Chinese, Jewish, Italians, Haitians, West Africans, etc. That's why you see (in cities) neighborhoods referred to as "Chinatown", or "Little Italy", because of the migrant population moving in there together.

There is sort of a tipping point where an immigrant community becomes established enough to sustain itself without depending on the reliability of indigenous partners. I don't know how to reach that point in economically stressed rural areas but there is a lot to be gained from it.

[JohnH]

After listening to the podcast, I agree with nearly everything. But I wouldn't say it was an exercise in thinking biblically, rather thinking logically and objectively. These are also good considerations but I think it needs to be considered through a biblical lense. Just creating birth is not enough for a healthy society.

I have a similar feeling with the quiver full, as many as possible teaching. I support having as many children as you can raise with hope and vision. In my worldview fertility is not an end in itself.

I would agree with all of that, and I suspect that so would the people on the podcast. What I would support in relation to a "quiver full" is just precisely what the Bible says - that a person who has many children is happy, and that it should be seen and promoted as a blessing to have children.

I am still thinking about this. The books of wisdom in the Bible need wisdom to understand them, they can't be treated like magic writing and isolated from context. There are many people in this world with lots of children who are not happy. I know a homeless couple that have children in foster care, just recently my wife saw them on the street again and they have another infant. I don't imagine Elon Musk's 9 or 10 children by a string of mothers qualifies him as happy and blessed.

We live in a society which is anti-natalist in many ways but I don't think the way out is to simply encourage births. The answer is to address the deeper distortions in society that convince people the best path is toward increasing narcissism, isolation and existentialism. We were created for purpose and a future, without that truth society will certainly run off the rails.

Low birth rates are a symptom of an overall anti-natalist and anti-life culture. What is interesting is how much those mindsets have invaded even quite conservative or traditionalist Anabaptist circles.

[JohnH]

There is sort of a tipping point where an immigrant community becomes established enough to sustain itself without depending on the reliability of indigenous partners. I don't know how to reach that point in economically stressed rural areas but there is a lot to be gained from it.

This begs the question, of course, of if if immigrants are so positive and beneficial to an otherwise struggling economy, why they don’t have that effect if they just stay in the places they’re coming from?

If what is needed is to be in the U.S., then why aren’t the existing “struggling” rural or small town areas already prospering?

[Thomas_muntzer]

The main angle of the interview was the economic perspective as the person being interviewed is an economist. It was interesting to think again about the economic ramifications of population decline, including the gradual loss of goods and services as demand declines. For example, community colleges or even niche foods. Countries will struggle to maintain a fully manned military. I read that the DC police force is about 800 officers short even though they have been offering a $25K sign-on bonus. It's back to school time and we're feeling a real crunch at work in some departments and it just feels like there aren't enough people out there for the jobs that are available. Obviously there are always other factors at play, but population decline brings real problems.

Many military analysts say one of the reasons Putin decided to invade Ukraine in 2022 was because of the demographic factor; they couldn't wait to do so in the next decade. And there are other conflicts that could be precipitated by population decline, such as the Korean Peninsula or a possible invasion of Taiwan by China