Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Josh]

We keep hearing the rest of the world “needs” the west.

Let’s ask the real question: why?

[mike]

[Dan Z]

I haven't read of any recent significant advances made by the Russians.

For everyone's sake, I would love to see this invasion "run out of its stockpile of missiles."

Since we are Americans, perhaps we should instead love to see our nation run out of missiles.

Instead, America is supplying munitions and missiles to the Ukraine military. Do you think this is morally acceptable?

I am generally not in favor of trying to put out a fire with gasoline.

[mike]

Open in icognito mode:
US Seek's China's Help to End War in Ukraine

(In case you can't open it)
The article gives an overview of where things are at the moment.

KYIV/LVIV, Ukraine, March 18 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden sought to prevent Beijing giving new life to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a video call with his Chinese counterpart on Friday as stalled Russian forces pressed on with bombardments of towns and cities.

With Russia looking to regain the initiative, three missiles landed at an airport near Lviv, a western city where hundreds of thousands thought they had found refuge far from Ukraine's battlefields.

The Russian defence ministry said it was "tightening the noose" around the besieged southern port of Mariupol, where officials said more than 1,000 people may still be trapped in makeshift bomb shelters beneath a destroyed theatre. read more

Ukraine said it had rescued 130 people from the theatre's basement after the building was flattened by Russian strikes two days ago. Russia denies hitting the theatre and says it does not target civilians. read more

China is the one big power that has yet to condemn Russia's assault and Washington says it fears Beijing may be considering giving Moscow financial and military support, something that both Russia and China deny.

Xi said conflicts such as the events in Ukraine were in no one's interests, and that NATO should hold talks with Russia to resolve the factors behind the conflict, Chinese state media reported, adding that the call had been at Biden's request. read more

The White House said only that the two men spoke for just under two hours. Earlier, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Xi should tell Russian President Vladimir Putin to end "this war of carnage" in Ukraine.

'MINIMAL PROGRESS'

At the start of the fourth week of Putin's attempt to subdue what he calls an artificial state undeserving of nationhood, Ukraine's elected government is still standing and Russian forces have not captured a single big city.

Putin promised tens of thousands of people waving Russian flags at a soccer stadium in Moscow the "special operation" would succeed.

"We know what we need to do, how to do it and at what cost. And we will absolutely accomplish all of our plans," Putin said, adding that, when needed, Russian soldiers "shield each other from bullets with their bodies like brothers". read more

State television briefly cut away from his speech in mid-sentence; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said later the interruption was due to a technical fault.

Russian troops have taken heavy losses while blasting residential areas to rubble, sending more than 3 million refugees fleeing over Ukraine's western border.

Ukraine said its troops had prevented their Russian adversaries from making any fresh advances on Friday and the Russians had problems with food, fuel and communications.

Britain said Russian forces had made minimal progress this week. "Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities," the UK defence ministry said.

Jakob Kern, emergency coordinator for the crisis at the U.N. World Food Programme, said Ukraine's "food supply chain is falling apart. Movements of goods have slowed down due to insecurity and the reluctance of drivers". read more

Oksana Zalavska, 42, fled Mariupol two days ago after staying in an overcrowded bomb shelter where adults ate one tiny meal a day as rations were low.

"Now I know everything about starvation in 2022," she said.

WFP, which feeds people in global crisis zones, also buys nearly half of its wheat from Ukraine. Kern said the war has already driven global food prices to all time highs, and could cause "collateral hunger" in poor countries worldwide.

INTENSE SHELLING

Russia has been intensively shelling eastern Ukrainian cities, especially Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol.

Troop columns bearing down on Kyiv from the northwest and east have been halted at the gates of the capital by fighting. But residents have endured nightly deadly missile attacks.

Debris from a missile blew a large crater in the ground in the middle of a residential block where a school was also located in northern Kyiv on Friday, shattering hundreds of windows and leaving debris scattered around the complex.

At least one person was killed, emergency services said. Kyiv mayor said 19 people were injured including four children.

"This is a war crime by Putin," said Lyudmila Nikolaenko, visiting her son, who lived in one of the apartments hit. "They say they aren't hitting regular people, they say we are firing at ourselves."

BIDEN PUTTING PRESSURE ON BEIJING

Kyiv and Moscow have both described progress in peace talks this week towards a political formula that would keep Ukraine out of the NATO alliance but protected with some other form of guarantee. Ukraine has demanded an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian troops and both sides accused each other on Friday of dragging out the talks.

With financial sanctions and diplomatic ostracism cutting Russia off from advanced economies, China is Russia's last big economic lifeline. Putin and Xi signed a "no limits" friendship pact three weeks before the invasion which repeated some of Russia's grievances over Ukraine.

China has so far been treading a careful line, abstaining in votes over U.N. resolutions condemning Russia while declining to refer to the assault as an invasion criticising the West.

But Washington, which this week announced $800 million in new military aid to Kyiv, now says Moscow wants more from Beijing than just diplomatic cover.

Biden, who has described Putin as a "murderous dictator", would make clear to Xi that China "will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia's aggression", Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Thursday.

"Beijing will do everything in its power to avoid having to openly take sides, but its formerly relatively cost-free relationship with Russia has become complicated and is now exposing China to growing geopolitical, economic and reputational risks," said Helena Legarda, Lead Analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

Hours before the phone call, China sailed an aircraft carrier through the sensitive Taiwan Strait - shadowed by a U.S. destroyer - a person with direct knowledge of the matter said.

[Falco Underhill]

[temporal1]

The U.S. just abandoned billions in military weapons in Afghanistan, the Taliban might be happy to sell.
Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. There may be quite a black market. Anyway, i don’t foresee “running out.”

i’m not sure the U.S. could function without a real or imagined powerful USSR/Russia.
it’s political+media gold.

China. hmm. i don’t foresee U.S. politicians willing to rock that big boat.
Putin/Russia are old standbys.

[Szdfan]

I think these negotiations are a lot more complicated than people are pretending they are.

From the NYT live blog:

A form of neutrality for Ukraine without NATO membership would seem to satisfy a key Russian demand, though only one of them. And any form of neutrality must come with security guarantees against further Russian aggression, the Ukrainians say. But who would provide such guarantees, and, if some guarantors are NATO members, how that would be fundamentally different from actual membership in the alliance, are only some of the fundamental questions outstanding.

On Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky said neutrality must include reliable guarantees that protect Ukraine from future threats. “We can and must defend our state, our life, our Ukrainian life,” he said. “We can and must negotiate a just but fair peace for Ukraine, real security guarantees that will work. Patience is needed.”

I don’t think this is an unreasonable expectation from Ukraine. Ukraine wants to join NATO because they want to protect themselves from exactly what Russia is doing right now. I don’t think giving Russia everything they want while leaving Ukraine open to future invasions or annexations is really peace.

What the Ukrainians want in exchange for neutrality:

The Ukrainians also want an international peacekeeping force in Ukraine, with its sovereignty guaranteed — and not simply “assured,” as in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which the country agreed to give up its nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet Union. And they want those security guarantees signed by the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council — the United States, Britain, China, France and Russia — plus Turkey and Germany.

That would commit the key members of NATO to fight for Ukraine should Russia (or any other country) invade. Given that NATO is unwilling to fight Russian troops in Ukraine now, or even to create a no-fly zone over Ukraine for risk of combat with Russia, it is hard to imagine that such guarantees could be agreed upon, the senior NATO official said.

So…not simple or easy.

A senior Western diplomat, briefed on the talks, suggested that neutrality and giving up Crimea would be easier for Ukraine than Russia’s other demands, like a further eastern partition and demilitarization. The diplomat confirmed that Mr. Putin appeared willing to talk to Mr. Zelensky, who seems to be trying to prepare Ukrainians for an eventual deal.

If accurate, Mr. Putin’s willingness to talk to Mr. Zelensky, whose ouster he originally demanded, is a form of progress. That is also an acknowledgment that the current Russian team negotiating with Ukraine is low-ranking and has little authority to settle the most difficult issues. So peace appears a very long way away.

[nett]

inb4 Bootstrap says it can't be verified.

[mike]

So…not simple or easy.

That's why this is such a bleak situation. There doesn't seem to be a good off-ramp for either Ukraine or Russia. I think that the outcome is probably determined as much by events on the ground as by negotiations. If the Ukraine can't repel the Russians, none of the talking really matters. Ukraine is history. If they can repel the Russians, or at least can keep them at bay indefinitely, things could get really ugly. I think Putin is more likely to escalate with chemical or biological or nuclear weapons than he is to reduce his demands or lower expectations.

[Josh]

Ukraine seems to be demanding the rest of the world be willing to start WW3 on its behalf. This is insane.

Should Cuba and Venezuela demand theh enter CSTO in order to ensure the U.S. will leave them alone? Would America tolerate a CSTO “peacekeeping force” in Cuba?