Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[RZehr]

Russia isn't really as big as you think. I stumbled across this site today: https://thetruesize.com/ which lets you drag and drop countries across the map to superimpose them (HINT: don't click the START NOW button which installs a chrome extension, just play with the site).

I see maps of Ukraine showing Russian advances and which parts of Ukraine Russia controls. It may seem like they are taking over the country pretty slowly, but I don't think it is really slowly. I think it just seems that way because Ukraine is so large.
Using thetruesize.com site, and state square mile sizes, Ukraine is pretty equal in size of PA, OH, IN, MD, DE, WV, VA, and half of Kentucky. Very similar in both square miles and population. To control an area that large is just going to take some time.

Ukraine is similar in square miles and population as Iraq. It took the US 40+ days to overwhelm Iraq in 1991. And that was considered stunningly fast. Also, the US wasn't trying to own the country, nor install a puppet. They left Saddam in charge. If they were trying to change the government, as Russia is wanting to do, it would have taken the US a lot longer, and the US would probably still be there. Oops, I guess the US is still there anyhow.

All this to say, that while I certainly believe that Russia had made incorrect assumptions about their invasion, and it is going more difficult than they figured, I don't think that their slow progress is much of a concern to Russia. They've only been at this for 16 days so far.

[Ken]

Russia isn't really as big as you think. I stumbled across this site today: https://thetruesize.com/ which lets you drag and drop countries across the map to superimpose them (HINT: don't click the START NOW button which installs a chrome extension, just play with the site).

I see maps of Ukraine showing Russian advances and which parts of Ukraine Russia controls. It may seem like they are taking over the country pretty slowly, but I don't think it is really slowly. I think it just seems that way because Ukraine is so large.
Using thetruesize.com site, and state square mile sizes, Ukraine is pretty equal in size of PA, OH, IN, MD, DE, WV, VA, and half of Kentucky. Very similar in both square miles and population. To control an area that large is just going to take some time.

Ukraine is similar in square miles and population as Iraq. It took the US 40+ days to overwhelm Iraq in 1991. And that was considered stunningly fast. Also, the US wasn't trying to own the country, nor install a puppet. They left Saddam in charge. If they were trying to change the government, as Russia is wanting to do, it would have taken the US a lot longer, and the US would probably still be there. Oops, I guess the US is still there anyhow.

All this to say, that while I certainly believe that Russia had made incorrect assumptions about their invasion, and it is going more difficult than they figured, I don't think that their slow progress is much of a concern to Russia. They've only been at this for 16 days so far.

The bigger issue isn't the speed, it's the casualties. Reportedly the Russians have already had 3 or 4 times more combat deaths than the US experienced in 20 years of war in Afghanistan and 10 years of war in Iraq. If they are experiencing a typical 4-1 ratio of wounded to dead then there may be tens of thousands of casualties by now. They are rapidly running out of troops. The loss of equipment is also enormous. Hundreds of tanks, helicopters, aircraft, trucks, etc. By contrast, the US lost just one tank during the first gulf war and it was recovered and repaired. And in the second gulf war the US and allies only had about 100 casualties up to the point that Bush declared mission accomplished and and end to major combat operations. The casualties didn't really start until later with the insurgency and that was mostly IEDs and snipers. Russia is a highly mechanized military and the don't seem to be able to cope well with the swampy muddy terrain that is most of Ukraine this time of year once you get off the major highways. Iraq was a desert so the US could essentially drive anywhere it wanted in large armored columns with few geographic barriers.

When it was the USSR the Soviets experienced massive casualties in every military campaign and it didn't matter because they had a limitless supply of troops. I'm not sure that is still the case. For example, when they invaded Finland (a country of 5 million) in 1939 they brought an invading army of over 700,000 troops and experienced something like 150,000 dead and 200,000 wounded over a 3-month war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War They can't do that sort of thing today and Ukraine is a bigger and much more populous country that is far less geographically isolated. Ukraine can throw every last soldier and resource into this fight because it faces no other threats or enemies. Russia has potential hot spots and military defenses to maintain across all of its tens of thousands of miles of border from Finland to Korea.

[mike]

[Dan Z]

I agree. I hear that 30% of the world's Wheat, 20% of its corn, and 80% of its sunflower oil come from the Ukraine/Russia 'breadbasket" region. Putin's plan for a quick and rather painless week-long takeover of a Russian-welcoming Ukraine never took this into account. As this drags on, and as infrastructure is destroyed and agriculture is disrupted, the world impact become potentially HUGE!

[temporal1]

The optimum time for resolution is when all parties are motivated toward resolution.
i believe that time is now. i’m glad Putin is engaging. esp for the people of Ukraine, i hope the opp is not wasted.

i hope for a quick resolution. if not, another 20 years could be ahead.
i’m remembering several weeks, 1982 Falkland Islands. the U.S. was not prominent. it was an unnerving time.

https://news.usni.org/2012/06/27/reagan ... ands-war-0

https://www.britannica.com/event/Falkland-Islands-War

[mike]

I agree. I hear that 30% of the world's Wheat, 20% of its corn, and 80% of its sunflower oil come from the Ukraine/Russia region. Putin's plan for a quick and rather painless week-long takeover of a Russian-welcoming Ukraine never took this into account. As this drags on, and as infrastructure is destroyed and agriculture is disrupted, the world impact become potentially HUGE!

Yes.

[temporal1]

Japan, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, are small but wealthy+powerful countries.
Land mass, sheer population numbers don’t determine much. A small nation of wealthier citizens will carry more sway than big countries with masses in poverty.

The world has always been controlled by the few elite.
ideas of democracies with large comfortable middle classes are ideals, not typical in real life history.

[temporal1]

I agree. I hear that 30% of the world's Wheat, 20% of its corn, and 80% of its sunflower oil come from the Ukraine/Russia region. Putin's plan for a quick and rather painless week-long takeover of a Russian-welcoming Ukraine never took this into account. As this drags on, and as infrastructure is destroyed and agriculture is disrupted, the world impact become potentially HUGE!

Yes.

Yes. When we view the numbskulls in charge of determining outcomes, there is reason to:
All grace comes from God.

[nett]

Russia isn't really as big as you think. I stumbled across this site today: https://thetruesize.com/ which lets you drag and drop countries across the map to superimpose them (HINT: don't click the START NOW button which installs a chrome extension, just play with the site).

I see maps of Ukraine showing Russian advances and which parts of Ukraine Russia controls. It may seem like they are taking over the country pretty slowly, but I don't think it is really slowly. I think it just seems that way because Ukraine is so large.
Using thetruesize.com site, and state square mile sizes, Ukraine is pretty equal in size of PA, OH, IN, MD, DE, WV, VA, and half of Kentucky. Very similar in both square miles and population. To control an area that large is just going to take some time.

Ukraine is similar in square miles and population as Iraq. It took the US 40+ days to overwhelm Iraq in 1991. And that was considered stunningly fast. Also, the US wasn't trying to own the country, nor install a puppet. They left Saddam in charge. If they were trying to change the government, as Russia is wanting to do, it would have taken the US a lot longer, and the US would probably still be there. Oops, I guess the US is still there anyhow.

All this to say, that while I certainly believe that Russia had made incorrect assumptions about their invasion, and it is going more difficult than they figured, I don't think that their slow progress is much of a concern to Russia. They've only been at this for 16 days so far.

The bigger issue isn't the speed, it's the casualties. Reportedly the Russians have already had 3 or 4 times more combat deaths than the US experienced in 20 years of war in Afghanistan and 10 years of war in Iraq. If they are experiencing a typical 4-1 ratio of wounded to dead then there may be tens of thousands of casualties by now. They are rapidly running out of troops. The loss of equipment is also enormous. Hundreds of tanks, helicopters, aircraft, trucks, etc. By contrast, the US lost just one tank during the first gulf war and it was recovered and repaired. And in the second gulf war the US and allies only had about 100 casualties up to the point that Bush declared mission accomplished and and end to major combat operations. The casualties didn't really start until later with the insurgency and that was mostly IEDs and snipers. Russia is a highly mechanized military and the don't seem to be able to cope well with the swampy muddy terrain that is most of Ukraine this time of year once you get off the major highways. Iraq was a desert so the US could essentially drive anywhere it wanted in large armored columns with few geographic barriers.

When it was the USSR the Soviets experienced massive casualties in every military campaign and it didn't matter because they had a limitless supply of troops. I'm not sure that is still the case. For example, when they invaded Finland (a country of 5 million) in 1939 they brought an invading army of over 700,000 troops and experienced something like 150,000 dead and 200,000 wounded over a 3-month war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War They can't do that sort of thing today and Ukraine is a bigger and much more populous country that is far less geographically isolated. Ukraine can throw every last soldier and resource into this fight because it faces no other threats or enemies. Russia has potential hot spots and military defenses to maintain across all of its tens of thousands of miles of border from Finland to Korea.

You never answered why you think Russia chose to do this, instead of establishing air superiority. Are they just stupid?

[RZehr]

Russia isn't really as big as you think. I stumbled across this site today: https://thetruesize.com/ which lets you drag and drop countries across the map to superimpose them (HINT: don't click the START NOW button which installs a chrome extension, just play with the site).

I see maps of Ukraine showing Russian advances and which parts of Ukraine Russia controls. It may seem like they are taking over the country pretty slowly, but I don't think it is really slowly. I think it just seems that way because Ukraine is so large.
Using thetruesize.com site, and state square mile sizes, Ukraine is pretty equal in size of PA, OH, IN, MD, DE, WV, VA, and half of Kentucky. Very similar in both square miles and population. To control an area that large is just going to take some time.

Ukraine is similar in square miles and population as Iraq. It took the US 40+ days to overwhelm Iraq in 1991. And that was considered stunningly fast. Also, the US wasn't trying to own the country, nor install a puppet. They left Saddam in charge. If they were trying to change the government, as Russia is wanting to do, it would have taken the US a lot longer, and the US would probably still be there. Oops, I guess the US is still there anyhow.

All this to say, that while I certainly believe that Russia had made incorrect assumptions about their invasion, and it is going more difficult than they figured, I don't think that their slow progress is much of a concern to Russia. They've only been at this for 16 days so far.

The bigger issue isn't the speed, it's the casualties. Reportedly the Russians have already had 3 or 4 times more combat deaths than the US experienced in 20 years of war in Afghanistan and 10 years of war in Iraq. If they are experiencing a typical 4-1 ratio of wounded to dead then there may be tens of thousands of casualties by now. They are rapidly running out of troops. The loss of equipment is also enormous. Hundreds of tanks, helicopters, aircraft, trucks, etc. By contrast, the US lost just one tank during the first gulf war and it was recovered and repaired. And in the second gulf war the US and allies only had about 100 casualties up to the point that Bush declared mission accomplished and and end to major combat operations. The casualties didn't really start until later with the insurgency and that was mostly IEDs and snipers. Russia is a highly mechanized military and the don't seem to be able to cope well with the swampy muddy terrain that is most of Ukraine this time of year once you get off the major highways. Iraq was a desert so the US could essentially drive anywhere it wanted in large armored columns with few geographic barriers.

When it was the USSR the Soviets experienced massive casualties in every military campaign and it didn't matter because they had a limitless supply of troops. I'm not sure that is still the case. For example, when they invaded Finland (a country of 5 million) in 1939 they brought an invading army of over 700,000 troops and experienced something like 150,000 dead and 200,000 wounded over a 3-month war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War They can't do that sort of thing today and Ukraine is a bigger and much more populous country that is far less geographically isolated. Ukraine can throw every last soldier and resource into this fight because it faces no other threats or enemies. Russia has potential hot spots and military defenses to maintain across all of its tens of thousands of miles of border from Finland to Korea.

The only thing I might disagree with here, is the underlined. I agree that they don't have as many people as they did back then. I just don't think it matters. I think they will be willing to lose tens if not hundreds of thousands of soldiers to accomplish whatever their goals are. As an oligarchy, they simply don't have the dynamics at play that the West would have.