Coronavirus Outbreak

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
Ken
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Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

nett wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:28 pm
RZehr wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:22 pm Uh-oh, sound like it’s time we veer away from following the science again.
What does that mean?
We are always veering away from the science for various reasons. That's why laws and requirements are generally made by policy makers and politicians and not scientists. We are always balancing science against other competing criteria like cost, convenience, freedom, practicality, etc.

For example, the science tells us that we could have stopped Covid in it's tracks by a simple global 14 day lockdown of the entire planet back in January 2020. Let it die out in the few individuals who had it at that time and it is erased. But that wasn't politically or practically viable so we did half-measures instead. Which obviously didn't work. Scientifically lockdowns would work perfectly, but in terms of practice they don't because they are never implemented perfectly.

Masks are another example. If everyone on the planet or in the country wore the best N95 masks fitted properly then masks would probably do a great deal to curtail Covid spread. But we don't do that. People wear all kind of junk masks fitted improperly and inconsistently. So a mask mandate is less effective than it might be and possibly completely ineffective.

Policy is about using science in the most effective way, not simply blindly following science when is impractical.
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Robert
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Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

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https://www.foxnews.com/us/lockdowns-re ... ut-of-hand
Lockdowns during the first COVID-19 wave in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID-19 mortality by .2% in the U.S. and Europe, according to a Johns Hopkins University meta-analysis of several studies.

"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted," the researchers wrote. "In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."

The researchers – Johns Hopkins University economics professor Steve Hanke, Lund University economics professor Lars Jonung, and special advisor at Copenhagen's Center for Political Studies Jonas Herby – analyzed the effects of lockdown measures such as school shutdowns, business closures, and mask mandates on COVID-19 deaths.

"We find little to no evidence that mandated lockdowns in Europe and the United States had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality rates," the researchers wrote.
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ken_sylvania

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by ken_sylvania »

Robert wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:27 pm https://www.foxnews.com/us/lockdowns-re ... ut-of-hand
Lockdowns during the first COVID-19 wave in the spring of 2020 only reduced COVID-19 mortality by .2% in the U.S. and Europe, according to a Johns Hopkins University meta-analysis of several studies.

"While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted," the researchers wrote. "In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument."

The researchers – Johns Hopkins University economics professor Steve Hanke, Lund University economics professor Lars Jonung, and special advisor at Copenhagen's Center for Political Studies Jonas Herby – analyzed the effects of lockdown measures such as school shutdowns, business closures, and mask mandates on COVID-19 deaths.

"We find little to no evidence that mandated lockdowns in Europe and the United States had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality rates," the researchers wrote.
I have a theory that the mandated lockdowns in the US, along with the slap-happy way they were drawn up and enforced/ignored, played a big part in the subsequent distrust and refusal of the vaccines once they became available. If my theory is correct, the lockdowns are probably responsible for preventing the COVID-19 mortality rate from dropping as much in 2021 as it otherwise might have.
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Josh

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Josh »

Science does not tell us anything about how a lockdown would have worked that never happened.

Science means making experiments and observations and then repeating them. Not making untested theories.
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Robert
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Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... lic-health
A Stanford University medical professor argued Tuesday that persistent masking and social distancing mandates are contributing to long-term damage to the immune systems of the public.

Dr. Eran Bendavid, an associate professor of medicine at Stanford University, opined that existing policies to combat COVID-19 and its spread are reducing the public's exposure to microbes and stopping people's immune systems from developing a defense against diseases.

"Maintaining good health is often a balancing act. Too much food and we develop obesity, diabetes and heart disease. Too little food and we see stunting and wasting," Bendavid said. "This kind of equilibrium applies to our interactions with bacteria, viruses, parasites and other microbes. Too much exposure to some microbes leads to disease, and so does too little."

"The intensification of hygienic policies with the advent of Covid-19 was understandable. But long-term masking, deep cleaning, distancing and isolation can be harmful to health, especially for children, precisely because it reduces exposure to microbes. Hygiene practices have health risks as well as benefits."

Civilization has thrived via its ability to combat infectious diseases, and the "great escape" from diseases such as tuberculosis, typhoid fever, polio, and smallpox is one of humanity's greatest accomplishments, according to Bendavid.

Humanity's liberation from these diseases was the product of clean drinking water, vaccinations, antibiotics, and sanitation, he said.

However, contemporary antiseptic populations have seen rising levels of allergies, Type 1 diabetes, Crohn's disease, asthma, and a myriad of illnesses with autoimmune components, he continued.
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Ken
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Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by Ken »

Josh wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:56 am Science does not tell us anything about how a lockdown would have worked that never happened.

Science means making experiments and observations and then repeating them. Not making untested theories.
Lockdowns are not science, they are policy. Science can investigate the characteristics of Covid and how it spreads from individual to individual, how long it persists on surfaces in the air, at what distance and duration is necessary for transmission to occur, etc. etc. Science could come up with criteria or risk factors for Covid spread. For example, two individuals at 50 meters distance for 5 min will have zero chance of transmitting Covid. Two individuals at 1 meter distance for 6 hours have 50% chance of transmitting Covid, etc. Science could inform us as to what conditions would be required in a lockdown to actually stop the spread of Covid. Which are likely to be 100x more restrictive than most actual lockdowns.

Policymakers should consider the science but have other competing issues like cost, disruption, compliance, etc. And so come up with measures (lockdowns, mask mandates etc.) that while they might be based at some level on science, they are inherently a policy compromise that may not have the intended effect, or may be counterproductive. Pretty much every Covid measure implemented in the US from lockdowns to mask mandates to vaccine mandates are riddled with various policy compromises that do not necessarily follow the science.

We can use statistics and other scientific methods to evaluate the effectiveness of various policy measures such as lockdowns. But it isn't really controlled experimentation. Because there are near infinite variables that are impossible to completely measure (levels of compliance, baseline prevalence of the disease, climate, weather, and seasons, etc.)

So yes, science could probably be used to design a 100% effective lockdown. But such a policy would likely be impossible to actually implement due to politics, economics, and other compromises. So the question is always going to be whether a compromised policy is effective or not, or even worth doing. Countries like Denmark are starting to conclude no, they aren't worth doing.
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ohio jones

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by ohio jones »

Ken wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 1:37 pm So yes, science could probably be used to design a 100% effective lockdown. But such a policy would likely be impossible to actually implement due to politics, economics, and other compromises. So the question is always going to be whether a compromised policy is effective or not, or even worth doing. Countries like Denmark are starting to conclude no, they aren't worth doing.
Problems arise when most people come to that conclusion long before the policymakers do.
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barnhart
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Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by barnhart »

Public health is as much an art as a science. It's not done in lab conditions, it must take into account all sorts of variations in human beliefs and behaviors. This is one reason I try to cut them some slack when they do things that raises my eyebrow. I don't want that job.
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ken_sylvania

Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

Post by ken_sylvania »

Ken wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:47 pm For example, the science tells us that we could have stopped Covid in it's tracks by a simple global 14 day lockdown of the entire planet back in January 2020. Let it die out in the few individuals who had it at that time and it is erased. But that wasn't politically or practically viable so we did half-measures instead. Which obviously didn't work. Scientifically lockdowns would work perfectly, but in terms of practice they don't because they are never implemented perfectly.
True science tells us that such a lockdown would have resulted in horrendous misery and death.
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Ken
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Re: Coronavirus Outbreak

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ken_sylvania wrote: ↑Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:51 pm
Ken wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:47 pm For example, the science tells us that we could have stopped Covid in it's tracks by a simple global 14 day lockdown of the entire planet back in January 2020. Let it die out in the few individuals who had it at that time and it is erased. But that wasn't politically or practically viable so we did half-measures instead. Which obviously didn't work. Scientifically lockdowns would work perfectly, but in terms of practice they don't because they are never implemented perfectly.
True science tells us that such a lockdown would have resulted in horrendous misery and death.
New Zealand did a pretty universal lockdown. I'm not sure they had horrendous misery and death. But their lockdown was more at the national level rather than individual house or city block. And they are realizing you can't maintain it forever so eventually you have to open back up if you want to rejoin the rest of the world.
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