Coronavirus Outbreak

[Wade]

My mom spent the entire day with something with COVID19 in a 18ftx12ft building. Then a couple days later she came over to our place for our daughters birthday with my sisters children and my dad. The next day was when my mom found out that that co-worker she spent the day with was positive through facebook - because they aren't telling people... My sister phoned the health authority and explained the situation - they told her not to even worry about it until they show symptoms... My dad who lives with my mom didn't have to isolate or anything. My moms test came back negative and yet she still had to isolate for two weeks...? Meanwhile her co-worker and 29 other people in the neighbouring town that got infected are back to work and said it was just like a minor cold to them.

[Jazman]

As I mentioned my Dad is in the hospital with COVID pneumonia. He was asked at admittance about signing to not be resuscitated if needed. Apparently if you sign that, then quit breathing, they will not perform CPR and will not be putting you on a ventilator.
His doctor is from Brooklyn NY and was in the heat of it there last spring, and the doctor only saw about 5% of ones on ventilators live. He isn’t a ventilator proponent.
Sounds like my Dad is doing okay. He is hooked up to a oxygen monitor. When he moves around, the numbers go down. Lowest he saw was 74% when he was moving around. Normally he is now at about 91%-93%. Being treated with remdesivir.
He seems to be doing better than many in there. The Covid unit there is full 20-30 patients, no visitors allowed. Youngest person who died at that hospital was 49.

Wow - then this is all very real for you. So sad to hear. I’m glad things are looking positive. We’ll pray God’s healing and comfort for your dad.

I just spent the afternoon with the family of a retired former employee who just died of COVID at 73. He was active & relatively healthy until he got ill a few weeks ago. This doesn’t seem like a far away possibility any more.

And I just found that the church co-leader of my youth has passed away, from Covid... I believe he was in his 70's as well, but I don't know what his health was immediately prior... or if there was any co-morbidities... There are multiple sad aspects to this situation... I'm not sure he passed while surrounded by his family and I've followed this through social media, and leaving out names, but a close family member of this gentleman has been what one might say, a covid-denier... not more than a few days before having to take him to hospital, they were decrying California's strict measures (which granted may be too strict, but...) And now this has happened - he picked it up from someone, maybe church? family? Probably someone who was asymptomatic or mild symptoms and could live/act as normal...
It's real and let's do everything we can to keep it from spreading to the most vulnerable.

[GaryK]

Interesting stats on Americans' mental health in 2020 compared to 2019.

https://www.axios.com/americans-mental- ... fe64f.html

[mike]

We could. But the second and (as of yet) third waves of the virus have not seen anywhere near the rate of deaths as the first wave.

Actually Mike, the relationship of deaths and cases in this third wave has been tracking very close to the second. The math is pretty straightforward here. Look at the numbers:

• In the last wave, the 7-day average for cases peaked at about 69,000 on July 17, with deaths peaking at 1,081 about 18-days later. At that time the ratio of deaths to cases was about 1.6%.
  
  In the current wave, on Oct 25th, the 7-day average for cases was roughly 68,000, and deaths 18 days later (Nov 11) were 1,080. Once again a death to cases ratio of about 1.6%.

Extrapolating forward, if this ratio holds (as it appears to be) we should see about 2,000 deaths a day by the end of November (130,000 cases/day x 1.6%). Where it goes from there depends on case load and hospitalization rates from here forward.

Copied this post from 24 days ago (Nov 12) just to illustrate how mathematically consistent this pandemic has been.

The daily average for deaths is now 2,222 - which is pretty close to what the numbers predicted over three weeks ago. Simply speaking - deaths have been following case rates by about three weeks (18-21 days) at a ratio of 1.5%-1.7% since early summer. Why - it takes COVID-diagnosed folks about three weeks to die of the disease on average, and the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID has been about 1.6% since June.

Currently (Dec. 5) the seven-day daily average case number is about 200,000 cases/day. This means that in about three weeks (at Christmas time) the county will be seeing a tragic average in excess of 3,000 deaths per day (20,000-25,000 deaths per week)! At that rate, it would take about two weeks for COVID to equal deaths for the average annual flu season. I think we have been at this so long that sometimes we loose perspective. Remember when folks were arguing that this is "just a bad flu?"

It's all quite astounding.

For additional perspective, the CDC's excess deaths chart is worth looking at. Deaths from all causes are following the normally expected upward trajectory for the winter season. However, COVID has caused the death numbers to be consistently 10-15% higher than expected for the past three months.

So, in terms of excess deaths, this third wave still is not anywhere near the terrible 30-40% excess deaths rate we saw in April.

[barnhart]

One person from our fellowship tested positive with symptoms this week. Another member who is a surgeon urged caution because if it spreads in our group, statistically one person will die.

[Robert]

One person from our fellowship tested positive with symptoms this week. Another member who is a surgeon urged caution because if it spreads in our group, statistically one person will die.

Does he advise about heart disease and dietary health to limit deaths from them also? Not trying to be antagonistic, just wondering about the viewpoint of the medical industry. Them seem to have accepted those lifestyle choices, while warning about a virus we can do little about.

My wife is like that a little too. If she can take a pill to address something, she will, but if she has to modify her life for better results, she is much slower to do that. It is human nature I guess.

[Dan Z]

For additional perspective, the CDC's excess deaths chart is worth looking at. Deaths from all causes are following the normally expected upward trajectory for the winter season. However, COVID has caused the death numbers to be consistently 10-15% higher than expected for the past three months.

So, in terms of excess deaths, this third wave still is not anywhere near the terrible 30-40% excess deaths rate we saw in April.

That is interesting Mike. Very consistent since the first wave was over.

As mentioned earlier, this CDC chart notoriously lags the data however...so much so, that the third wave (which has now equaled the first in daily deaths) has yet to show up in force on the current CDC death chart. A usual, time will correct that - but for now the chart is good to about a month in the past - and is a work in progress after that.

By the way, the consensus of the predictive models shows death's continuing to rapidly increase for the next few weeks (following case rates) but beginning to level off toward month's end perhaps near or above 3,000 deaths/day. It also seems that case rates are now not growing as fast as they were in Nov. - but we have yet to fully see the effects of Thanksgiving gatherings in the case numbers yet (that should show up this week). Christmas gathering may push spread further into the new year, but after that we should start to see the positive effects of vaccine distribution in nursing homes. All that to say that the next 4-6 weeks will likely be the darkest of the entire pandemic - but as they say, "it's always darkest before the dawn."

Lay low people for just a bit longer.

[mike]

For additional perspective, the CDC's excess deaths chart is worth looking at. Deaths from all causes are following the normally expected upward trajectory for the winter season. However, COVID has caused the death numbers to be consistently 10-15% higher than expected for the past three months.

So, in terms of excess deaths, this third wave still is not anywhere near the terrible 30-40% excess deaths rate we saw in April.

That is interesting Mike. Very consistent since the first wave was over.

As mentioned earlier, this CDC chart notoriously lags the data however...so much so, that the third wave (which has now equaled the first in daily deaths) has yet to show up in force on the current CDC death chart. A usual, time will correct that - but for now the chart is good to about a month in the past - and is a work in progress after that.

By the way, the consensus of the predictive models shows death's continuing to rapidly increase for the next few weeks (following case rates) but beginning to level off toward month's end perhaps near or above 3,000 deaths/day. It also seems that case rates are now not growing as fast as they were in Nov. - but we have yet to fully see the effects of Thanksgiving gatherings in the case numbers yet (that should show up this week). Christmas gathering may push spread further into the new year, but after that we should start to see the positive effects of vaccine distribution in nursing homes. All that to say that the next 4-6 weeks will likely be the darkest of the entire pandemic - but as they say, "it's always darkest before the dawn."

Lay low people for just a bit longer.

It seems like it takes until about Tuesday, typically, for reporting to catch up from the previous weekend, so we'll see if this nasty upward trajectory continues.

About lag in reporting excess deaths, the CDC says:

Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death.

Helpful in interpreting the chart.

[Josh]

Dan Z,

“Lay low people for just a bit longer.”

Can you put a time limit on it? 2022? 2024? 2040?

When it is acceptable to do things like have church, sing, conduct baptisms, meet family for Christmas, visit those who are sick, or visit those in prison?

[Dan Z]

Dan Z,

“Lay low people for just a bit longer.”

Can you put a time limit on it? 2022? 2024? 2040??

Good question. Vaccines will likely begin begin distribution next week.

They will go to first-line healthcare workers and the most vulnerable (nursing home residents, the elderly, the most physically compromised). Depending on who you listen to, this will take a month or two. Over 40% of COVID deaths have come from long-term care homes - so targeted vaccination to these at-risk folks should knock the death rate down by 30%-50% - to levels more common for a bad flu season. At that point I expect more draconian distancing, gathering and travel guidelines should begin to ease.

Most credible sources are saying that the vaccine should be widely available to all who want it by April or May...meaning by early summer a good percentage of the population will have either had the vaccine or recovered from the illness - thus having a good degree of societal immunity. By summer COVID-related business and masking restrictions should be wrapping up, with ongoing hygiene protocols lingering for a while after that.

That's my best guess based on some pretty extensive reading, and this timeline is guiding my business and personal decision-making at this point - subject to change of course.

I have found that my life as a Christian continues undeterred - although creatively modified to honor the requests of the public health officials, and to keep my family, neighbors, and faith community as safe as possible from the effects of this tragic disease. Many fellow Christians have found ways to live out their faith in more difficult times then me.