Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[AndersonD]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/worl ... =url-share

[Josh]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/worl ... =url-share

We should be prepared for similar to happen in the U.S. - especially as our alternative service programmes like MVS are in a state of disarray.

Currently Selective Service wants my denomination to open more units so that if there were a draft, we could take every other denomination’s C.O.s. These units are expensive to run and need a lot of volunteer help. I really wish other Anabaptists and other peace churches would show a stronger commitment to running voluntary service units.

[AndersonD]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/worl ... =url-share

We should be prepared for similar to happen in the U.S. - especially as our alternative service programmes like MVS are in a state of disarray.

Currently Selective Service wants my denomination to open more units so that if there were a draft, we could take every other denomination’s C.O.s. These units are expensive to run and need a lot of volunteer help. I really wish other Anabaptists and other peace churches would show a stronger commitment to running voluntary service units.

What is your denomination?

[AndersonD]

I wasn't aware that there was CO status in Ukraine. Thought it was mandatory to serve in the military in many Eastern European countries including Russia.

[Josh]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/worl ... =url-share

We should be prepared for similar to happen in the U.S. - especially as our alternative service programmes like MVS are in a state of disarray.

Currently Selective Service wants my denomination to open more units so that if there were a draft, we could take every other denomination’s C.O.s. These units are expensive to run and need a lot of volunteer help. I really wish other Anabaptists and other peace churches would show a stronger commitment to running voluntary service units.

What is your denomination?

Holdeman Mennonites

[Josh]

I wasn't aware that there was CO status in Ukraine. Thought it was mandatory to serve in the military in many Eastern European countries including Russia.

It was in their constitution since independence but was never tested before. Much like in the rest of the satellite states, it
becomes nonexistent in a time of actual crisis.

Our church members there have had to flee to other places or go into hiding.

[Ken]

Is anyone else going to answer Ernie or are we just gonna argue over my opinion of what a proxy war is?

From a strategic standpoint, not a non-resistant one, what do you think of this author's proposal for not letting Putin control everything he wants to?

From whose strategic standpoint? I’ve noticed the new President in Brazil sure is cozy with Putin. As is the entire continent of Africa (and the situation with Niger is making them even cozier.)

It is actually very much the opposite. Russia’s influence in Africa has been waning in the past decade and that decline has only been accelerated since Russia chose to invade Ukraine. None of the large countries in Africa are Russian allies. For example. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90294

The Ukraine war and its consequences mean that for Moscow, this year’s summit was a relic of better times. In the early 2000s, and even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin’s efforts in Africa were logical and looked like they could yield results. The only other such summit, which was held in 2019, was widely seen as the jumping-off point for Russia’s return to Africa, enabling it to take a position alongside other important regional powers and promote its interests amid its global confrontation with the West.

Back then, Russia really did have major leverage on the continent: the country’s human capital and ties forged during the Soviet period; a reputation untarnished by historical trauma; and expertise in crucial spheres like security, healthcare, and education.

It was no surprise, therefore, that leaders from as many as forty-five of Africa’s fifty-four nations attended the 2019 summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi. Back then, Putin said Russia and Africa would try to double their trade volume in the next four to five years, and the organizers subsequently boasted of dozens of agreements and memorandums of understanding that were signed, worth an estimated $15 billion.

Four years later, however, even political experts loyal to the Kremlin have concluded that the positive boost to Russia-Africa relations in 2019 has not been realized. Trade volumes have not only not doubled, they have actually decreased. And Russia’s direct investment in Africa is currently about 1 percent of the total inflow.

Moscow has also managed to damage its own reputation. This is clear from polling in Africa and by voting patterns at the UN. The cause is not only Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, but also the controversy surrounding the Wagner mercenary army, which is active across the continent. Wagner has regularly been accused of human rights violations and of seeking only to protect the African business interests of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Indeed, Prigozhin’s activities in Africa increasingly resemble those of a military-trading company from the eighteenth or nineteenth century, combining military power with a nominal loyalty to its mother country while exploiting accessible material riches. Wagner’s modus operandi and the imperial nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine devalues Putin’s rhetoric about the fight against neocolonialism, and discredits Russia in the eyes of many Africans.

In other words, since the last summit in 2019, Russia’s economic ties with Africa have frayed and Moscow has begun an unsuccessful war that means it is unlikely to be able to preserve its status as a regional power, let alone a global one.

The Kremlin has little time for Africa right now, and it looks like Africa doesn’t have much time for Russia either. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov was forced—rather unconvincingly—to explain that the lower headcount of African leaders at the summit this year was a result of “Western pressure.” Only twenty-seven countries sent top political figures to the summit, compared with forty-five countries in 2019.

[Josh]

Yes, that’s why the whole continent refused to join the anti-Russia sanctions.

[Ken]

Yes, that’s why the whole continent refused to join the anti-Russia sanctions.

African trade with Russia is trivial and shrinking. As the article notes, it represents less than 1% of total inflows into Africa. China, Europe, and the United States are far more consequential actors in Africa than Russia is.

It would be rather pointless and mostly just performative for African nations to sanction Russia since most of them have virtually no trade with Russia to begin with. The main thing Russia exports to Africa is weapons and grain. The Ukraine war is demonstrating how poor most Russian weapons are, and Russia’s actions in Ukraine are simply increasing the price of grain which is straining African economies.

The big winner will be China, of course. The Ukraine War will be an absolute windfall for China in a long list of ways.

[Ken]

Looks like the Russian's attempt to return to the moon crashed and burned in failure

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 023-08-20/

Russia's first lunar mission in 47 years smashes into the moon in failure

MOSCOW, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Russia's first moon mission in 47 years failed when its Luna-25 space craft spun out of control and crashed into the moon after a problem preparing for pre-landing orbit, underscoring the post-Soviet decline of a once mighty space programme.

Russia's state space corporation, Roskosmos, said it had lost contact with the craft at 11:57 GMT on Saturday after a problem as the craft was shunted into pre-landing orbit. A soft landing had been planned for Monday.

"The apparatus moved into an unpredictable orbit and ceased to exist as a result of a collision with the surface of the Moon," Roskosmos said in a statement.

It said a special inter-departmental commission had been formed to investigate the reasons behind the loss of the Luna-25 craft, whose mission had raised hopes in Moscow that Russia was returning to the big power moon race.

The failure underscored the decline of Russia's space power since the glory days of Cold War competition when Moscow was the first to launch a satellite to orbit the Earth - Sputnik 1, in 1957 - and Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first man to travel into space in 1961.

In 2022, Putin appointed his crony and former Deputy to run the Russian space agency Roscosmos so it seems that the political rot and corruption has spread to their once proud and accomplished space agency.

India has a space probe scheduled to land on the Moon this coming Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if India succeeds where Russia failed. This could mark a real turning point in worldwide science and exploration. The Chinese also have a series of moon missions planned, eventually with astronauts.