Szdfan wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:32 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/06 ... icial-says
Russia has withdrawn all of its troops that had been arrayed against Kyiv and Chernihiv, two major cities in northern Ukraine, and sent them back to Belarus and Russia to rearm and resupply, presumably for duty soon in eastern Ukraine, a senior Pentagon official said on Wednesday.
When Russia announced more than a week ago that it was withdrawing its forces around Kyiv and elsewhere in the north to focus on the east, many U.S. officials voiced suspicion that it might be a ruse, since many of the Russian forces were dug in, and Moscow continued to pummel the cities with air and artillery strikes.
But in the past week, senior Pentagon officials said 20 percent, then two-thirds, and, as of Wednesday, all of the Russian ground forces advancing against Kyiv and Chernihiv — about 40 battalion tactical groups, or as many as 40,000 troops — had left, in many cases under fierce attack from Ukrainian troops who retook the territory.
Russia now has about 30 battalion tactical groups — or as many as 30,000 troops — in the east, the senior Pentagon official said. Earlier this week, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said Russia would likely send “tens of thousands of soldiers to the front line in Ukraine’s east” in the coming week.
Some perspective on what 30,000 troops means. Or even 70,000 if they manage to bring all their troops from the Kyiv front all the way around through Belarus and Russia for deployment in eastern Ukraine. Which is a long way to move military equipment. A lot of which will need major repair and refitting.
First the size of Ukraine. Ukraine is 233,062 square miles. To give some US context that is equal to the combined area of NY, PA, OH, VA, ME, and VT
New York 54,555 square miles
Pennsylvania 46,054 square miles
Ohio 44,826 square miles
Virginia 42,775 square miles
Maine 35,380 square miles
Vermont 9,616 square miles
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Total 233,206 square miles
And if you subtract NYC, Ukraine has about the same population and number of towns and cities as those 6 states combined.
On just the western front during WW2 the US, British, and other allied forces invaded France and pushed on into Germany with a combined force of 4.5 million men. That's not even counting the Soviet armies. Germany (today) has a total size of 137,000 square miles (it was larger during WW2 but still not as large as Ukraine). And US began the initial occupation of just their half of Germany (about 1/4 the size of Ukraine) with a force of 1.5 million men.
The NYPD has over 35,000 uniformed officers and another 20,000 or so support and clerical staff. And that is to patrol a city of 300 square miles in peacetime.
Ukraine reportedly now has over 10 anti-tank missiles for every Russian tank. And more arms of every form are pouring in including lots of anti-aircraft weaponry. And they building their forces as fast as they can train and equip new recruits and volunteers. Russia might be able to consolidate its hold over the border regions of the Donbass. But every additional mile they push into Ukraine lengthens their supply lines and make them more vulnerable to guerilla attack and counter-attack. And with spring approaching the Ukrainians will have the additional advantage of foliage for concealment from the air as a lot of that landscape is wooded.
Russia might be able to wreak enormous destruction in Ukraine. But I don't see how they have the forces to conquer let alone hold large parts of it. And with all the reports of atrocities and targeting of civilian infrastructure, it seems unlikely that the Ukrainians will be in the mood to cede any territory to Russia as part of peace negotiations. And without a peace agreement no Russian will be safe anywhere in Ukraine.