No. Posted the tweet for what it is worth: one person's opinion.
Excellent point. However, I think that Geraldo may have a point in the fact that, with time, Russia may bring more of its full military might to bear on Ukraine; and given that Ukraine's allies are only contributing weapons in a limited way (no fighter planes for instance), Russia may yet pull off a victory.
The key, I think, is in defining what constitutes a victory for either Russia or Ukraine. And whether such a victory is worth the enormous costs that this war is generating on both sides.
Right. I wonder what Putin really wanted to start with, and whether that has changed with the course of the invasion. I assume that what Ukraine wants is simple enough.
If, as seems possible, we wind up back essentially where we started with Crimea in Russian hands, the Donbass carved out as some sort of quasi-independent region, and the rest of Ukraine an independent west-leaning democracy. Then who is the winner and who is the loser in that result?
Arguably everyone is the loser because that was more or less where things were before the war started. So what even was the point?
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
mike wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 2:12 pmI wonder what Putin really wanted to start with, and whether that has changed with the course of the invasion. I assume that what Ukraine wants is simple enough.
If, as seems possible, we wind up back essentially where we started with Crimea in Russian hands, the Donbass carved out as some sort of quasi-independent region, and the rest of Ukraine an independent west-leaning democracy. Then who is the winner and who is the loser in that result?
Arguably everyone is the loser because that was more or less where things were before the war started. So what even was the point?
No idea.
If this is the end result, the west will end up pouring in billions of aid to rebuild Ukraine. One can only imagine the potential for corruption and mismanagement for years on end in this kind of scenario.
If Ukraine as a whole ends up under Russian control, what has been destroyed likely won't get rebuilt.
i’ve seen similar offers/gestures/promises to Ukraine. ^^^
maybe others are focusing on talks, not U.S. (rhetoric)?
the U.S. is not alone in this, maybe helped by the Trump years when he was no-nonsense about other countries contributing their “fair share?” as well, Vietnam seems to be doing fine without “Mother U.S.A.” (we were promised this would NOT happen.)
mike wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:33 pm
It appears that Russia's invasion of Ukraine isn't going well, at least if the goal was complete takeover of the country. The Ukrainians have held their capital city, are retaking some cities, and are managing some actual attacks against Russia on Russian territory.
The "Kyiv" Independent is not a reliable source of news about this conflict. They have consistently over-reported Ukrainian success and under-reported Russian advances.
mike wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:29 pmOne can only imagine the potential for corruption and mismanagement for years on end in this kind of scenario.
One doesn't need to imagine; simply look at how Ukraine has been managed for the last decade to get an idea of the level of corruption and mismanagement possible.
If Ukraine as a whole ends up under Russian control, what has been destroyed likely won't get rebuilt.
Actually, Russia has invested huge amounts in Crimea. Most of what was in the Ukraine was only there because the USSR built it in the first place.
Ken wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:02 pm
If, as seems possible, we wind up back essentially where we started with Crimea in Russian hands, the Donbass carved out as some sort of quasi-independent region, and the rest of Ukraine an independent west-leaning democracy. Then who is the winner and who is the loser in that result?
Arguably everyone is the loser because that was more or less where things were before the war started. So what even was the point?
Russia wins, since it no longer has a hostile client state of the U.S. next door, and Ukraine's potential as a military aggressor are nullified. And nobody else is going to want to repeat what happened to Ukraine. Thus Russia has the security assurances that it wanted in the first place.
If Russia takes the Donbass (or turns them into Russian client states), I would expect they will take most of the south shore as well (they already hold the land there). Taking over Odessa would be about as difficult as Crimea was 8 years ago. At that point, "Ukraine" is a landlocked "country" of resource-poor, cold, dry, and infertile patches of mountains in the West. I don't think Russia ever had a serious desire to take Kiev and certainly not the western oblasts like where Lvov is.
Didn’t know Ukraine taxed its residents in dollars. A decline of 7% on tax base seems a bit laughable but just shows to show how overstated the consequences of this “war” are.