Birth Rates and Immigration

[Bootstrap]

This thread is about one very simple question: how many immigrants are actually coming into the country, and how does that compare to the number of births. It started with a Twitter graph that was claiming we have more illegal immigrants than births in the United States. As far as I can tell, this claim is simply false. The graph is also labeled with "Biden" and "Trump", which makes me think it may be politically motivated. Sometimes, political factions do lie to us.

Incorrect. The graph had listed "Births" and "Encounters" as labels underneath "American Births" and "Illegal Aliens". The chart has accurate data for American births (defined as any birth happening in America), and illegal alien encounters (defined using the government's criteria).

Are we looking at the same graph? When I look at the data behind this, I think this graph is a bald-faced politically motivated lie.

Here's what I see in this graph:

1. The title claims the graph is about "American Births" versus "Illegal Immigrants". But it is not. Neither line shows the number of illegal immigrants at all. And I do not know a way to even compute the number of illegal immigrants from the graph. So the graph is a bald-faced lie.
2. As you say, there is a label at the bottom that mentions "Encounters". Which is it? Border patrol encounters do not measure the number of illegal aliens in the United States. They include every single person who is turned away. If a person is turned away three times in a year, that person is counted three times. But the graph title clearly says that "encounters" tells you how many illegal immigrants there are. That is a bald faced lie.
3. The actual numbers for legal immigrants + illegal immigrants are much lower than the number of Border Patrol encounters in most sources I have found so far. So actually using real numbers leads to a very different result.

So yes, it just might have "accurate numbers" for Border Patrol encounters, but it lies about what that means. It does not tell you how many illegal immigrants there are in the United States. But that's precisely what it claims it is doing.

For instance, if you get a flood of people trying to enter the United States but every single one of them is turned away, every one of them might have a Border Patrol encounter, some may have three or four, not a single one of them has become an immigrant. Every one of these is counted as an "illegal alien" on that chart.

Perhaps you could find some reputable source of data for the number of illegal immigrants in the United States? I presented one. I can present a few more for comparison if nobody else wants to.

[ken_sylvania]

This thread is about one very simple question: how many immigrants are actually coming into the country, and how does that compare to the number of births. It started with a Twitter graph that was claiming we have more illegal immigrants than births in the United States. As far as I can tell, this claim is simply false. The graph is also labeled with "Biden" and "Trump", which makes me think it may be politically motivated. Sometimes, political factions do lie to us.

Incorrect. The graph had listed "Births" and "Encounters" as labels underneath "American Births" and "Illegal Aliens". The chart has accurate data for American births (defined as any birth happening in America), and illegal alien encounters (defined using the government's criteria).

Are we looking at the same graph? When I look at the data behind this, I think this graph is a bald-faced politically motivated lie.

Here's what I see in this graph:

1. The title claims the graph is about "American Births" versus "Illegal Immigrants". But it is not. Neither line shows the number of illegal immigrants at all. And I do not know a way to even compute the number of illegal immigrants from the graph. So the graph is a bald-faced lie.
2. As you say, there is a label at the bottom that mentions "Encounters". Which is it? Border patrol encounters do not measure the number of illegal aliens in the United States. They include every single person who is turned away. If a person is turned away three times in a year, that person is counted three times. But the graph title clearly says that "encounters" tells you how many illegal immigrants there are. That is a bald faced lie.
3. The actual numbers for legal immigrants + illegal immigrants are much lower than the number of Border Patrol encounters in most sources I have found so far. So actually using real numbers leads to a very different result.

So yes, it just might have "accurate numbers" for Border Patrol encounters, but it lies about what that means. It does not tell you how many illegal immigrants there are in the United States. But that's precisely what it claims it is doing.

For instance, if you get a flood of people trying to enter the United States but every single one of them is turned away, every one of them might have a Border Patrol encounter, some may have three or four, not a single one of them has become an immigrant. Every one of these is counted as an "illegal alien" on that chart.

Perhaps you could find some reputable source of data for the number of illegal immigrants in the United States? I presented one. I can present a few more for comparison if nobody else wants to.

Hey, what happened to keeping politics out of this thread???

[Josh]

I agree that the Trump-Biden line is unnecessary and if I had created the graph, I wouldn't have put that in there. Everyone knows when the President changes. (Well, in theory, most people know; perhaps some people are ignorant. And then some people claim Trump is still the President.) Such political distractions aren't helpful.

I also wish the chart was wider, but the month by month data is hard to find for some months going farther back. Month-by-month resolution is helpful in this case - particularly for 2023.

[Bootstrap]

Hey, what happened to keeping politics out of this thread???

Good point. Thanks.

Request: No graphs that include the names of Trump or Biden. Lets look for other sources of data.

I agree that the Trump-Biden line is unnecessary and if I had created the graph, I wouldn't have put that in there. Everyone knows when the President changes. (Well, in theory, most people know; perhaps some people are ignorant. And then some people claim Trump is still the President.) Such political distractions aren't helpful.

I also wish the chart was wider, but the month by month data is hard to find for some months going farther back. Month-by-month resolution is helpful in this case - particularly for 2023.

The real problem with the graph, Josh, is the title: American Births versus Illegal Immigration. Despite the title, nothing in the graph shows us that. It tells us nothing at all that we can use to determine how many immigrants there are in the United States or the rate of new immigrants in this country. The title of the graph is a lie.

It's not a question of little details that can be adjusted. The chart quite simply does not tell us how many immigrants are entering the country or how many immigrants are here. We need a different chart for that. And to keep politics out of this discussion, we need a chart that isn't about Trump and Biden.

If we want to compare American Births to Illegal Immigrants, or to all Immigrants, we need a chart that actually does that. In the chart, not just in the title of the chart.

[Sudsy]

Wow ! I wonder how much discussion there would be on new birth rates (new born agains) in our countries. Aren't these the birth rates we should be most concerned about ? There, my 2 cents worth.

[RZehr]

Wow ! I wonder how much discussion there would be on new birth rates (new born agains) in our countries. Aren't these the birth rates we should be most concerned about ? There, my 2 cents worth.

Can we see a graph of that? American New Births vs. Illegal Immigrants? With the Trump / Biden line?

[Judas Maccabeus]

They can; they just have to find someone to hire them anyway, or else the appropriate convincing docs for a fake i9 and w4.

Laws are already on the books. They just aren’t enforced. Now send a few business owners to jail, than you will see a change.

Mandate e-verify, mandate reporting anyone that fails.

E-verify doesn't necessarily tell you a hard pass or fail, but it DOES tell the federal government everyone who is working at a particular job site. I'm not sure that's a good thing to have that much central collection of data.

The federal government does eventually find out when payroll taxes are filed, but that could take as long as a quarter, and some tiny employers don't have to file until an annual report is due.

I don't think it's good to have a giant underclass of people who can't work - or realistically, can only work under-the-table. That's why I have focused my conversation on instead dealing with the problem of more floods of people coming in, so that we can have breathing space to deal with the millions and millions who are already here with illegal status.

The goal is they self deport. If no one will give them work, they can march back to where they left, and build the nations they came from. A brain/population drain can't be good.

[Josh]

The goal is they self deport. If no one will give them work, they can march back to where they left, and build the nations they came from. A brain/population drain can't be good.

I guess I find the idea of "self deporting" people who have been here 10-20 years (or more) a bit... concerning. It would seem a far more appropriate focus is to prevent new arrivals, and also make it clear new arrivals will not be made comfortable.

Of course, the political climate is shifting, and public opinion right now does support a mass deportation. Perhaps those on the left side of the aisle should consider that their hard-headed insistence that floods of millions of "asylum seekers" is a good thing can have the opposite effect of what they want. A more reasoned, careful compromise would be better for everyone involved.

If what America really needs is more people, then it is appropriate to consider how the birth rate can be raised. I think an obvious place to look is in making sure there is meaningful work for people, and that it pays a fair wage. (That goes for illegal aliens too - they should be paid a fair wage, just like a legal worker.) And that the basic necessities of life, like food and shelter, are affordable for the average person. When they aren't, people aren't comfortable forming families.

If the rhetoric that there are too many people and big family sizes are bad prevails, however, then there is even less of a case for more migration.

[Judas Maccabeus]

The goal is they self deport. If no one will give them work, they can march back to where they left, and build the nations they came from. A brain/population drain can't be good.

I guess I find the idea of "self deporting" people who have been here 10-20 years (or more) a bit... concerning. It would seem a far more appropriate focus is to prevent new arrivals, and also make it clear new arrivals will not be made comfortable.

Of course, the political climate is shifting, and public opinion right now does support a mass deportation. Perhaps those on the left side of the aisle should consider that their hard-headed insistence that floods of millions of "asylum seekers" is a good thing can have the opposite effect of what they want. A more reasoned, careful compromise would be better for everyone involved.

If what America really needs is more people, then it is appropriate to consider how the birth rate can be raised. I think an obvious place to look is in making sure there is meaningful work for people, and that it pays a fair wage. (That goes for illegal aliens too - they should be paid a fair wage, just like a legal worker.) And that the basic necessities of life, like food and shelter, are affordable for the average person. When they aren't, people aren't comfortable forming families.

If the rhetoric that there are too many people and big family sizes are bad prevails, however, then there is even less of a case for more migration.

My point would be, to do both.

[Josh]

My point would be, to do both.

A reasonable policy view (and one the majority of Americans now agree with). Rather interesting when I find myself to the left of you... it just shows how much public opinion has changed on this matter.