Poll: 2024 Presidential Election

[Ken]

Well I've been seeing Trump 2024 flags flying from poles for over a year. Considering all they've done to try to destroy him for 7 years, he has more support than any president I've seen in my lifetime, but I'm in Ohio. Without all the vitriol I have no doubt he'd win for the 3rd time. His pill #s are extremely high- considering the hatred from the left that's pretty remarkable. He did a great job before, he can again. He's already proved himself as a strong leader who can do it again- if God will have mercy on an undeserving nation.

I like 2 others a lot but they would be hated too (I remember how Busy was treated) so it may not even matter

In point of fact, Trump's disapproval ratings have actually DECLINED during his ex-presidency and I think he is the first president in modern history who has gotten more unpopular after he left office. That takes some doing. Bush, Obama, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, etc. all saw their popularity and approval ratings jump after leaving office.

[Valerie]

Well I've been seeing Trump 2024 flags flying from poles for over a year. Considering all they've done to try to destroy him for 7 years, he has more support than any president I've seen in my lifetime, but I'm in Ohio. Without all the vitriol I have no doubt he'd win for the 3rd time. His pill #s are extremely high- considering the hatred from the left that's pretty remarkable. He did a great job before, he can again. He's already proved himself as a strong leader who can do it again- if God will have mercy on an undeserving nation.

I like 2 others a lot but they would be hated too (I remember how Busy was treated) so it may not even matter

In point of fact, Trump's disapproval ratings have actually DECLINED during his ex-presidency and I think he is the first president in modern history who has gotten more unpopular after he left office. That takes some doing. Bush, Obama, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, etc. all saw their popularity and approval ratings jump after leaving office.

Me thinks you're not seeing what I'm seeing.

[Bootstrap]

His pill #s are extremely high

Yeah, that happens to a lot of people in their late 70s. I think Biden also takes a lot of pills.

[Bootstrap]

He's already proved himself as a strong leader who can do it again- if God will have mercy on an undeserving nation.

I would love to see God have mercy on this undeserving nation.

If that includes the political domain, I think that means someone better than either Trump or Biden.

Regardless, I would love to join anyone in prayer that God have mercy on this undeserving nation, bring revival, and change hearts. Or that God will raise up political leaders who will be seen as just and wise and good, across party lines.

[Ken]

Well I've been seeing Trump 2024 flags flying from poles for over a year. Considering all they've done to try to destroy him for 7 years, he has more support than any president I've seen in my lifetime, but I'm in Ohio. Without all the vitriol I have no doubt he'd win for the 3rd time. His pill #s are extremely high- considering the hatred from the left that's pretty remarkable. He did a great job before, he can again. He's already proved himself as a strong leader who can do it again- if God will have mercy on an undeserving nation.

I like 2 others a lot but they would be hated too (I remember how Busy was treated) so it may not even matter

In point of fact, Trump's disapproval ratings have actually DECLINED during his ex-presidency and I think he is the first president in modern history who has gotten more unpopular after he left office. That takes some doing. Bush, Obama, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, etc. all saw their popularity and approval ratings jump after leaving office.

Me thinks you're not seeing what I'm seeing.

Oh, I'm sure he is popular in the rural and mainly white parts of Ohio. You can drive around rural eastern Washington and see the same thing. I just did. But even in Ohio (or Washington), rural areas only represent about 20% of the population.

So what you are seeing isn't remotely representative of the population as a whole. And opinion surveys that measure presential approval and popularity are actually designed to be representative of the population as a whole.

[Josh]

Valerie is in a metropolitan area of Ohio and also a very diverse area.

[Ken]

Here is a recent Quinnipiac poll of Trump's approval (actually from Dec 2022) https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releas ... May%202015.

As former President Donald Trump seeks to return to the Oval Office, 31 percent of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 59 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, the lowest favorability rating he's received among registered voters since July 2015, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today.

Among Republican voters, 70 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 20 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. This is the lowest favorability rating among Republican voters in a Quinnipiac University poll since March 2016.

Among independent voters, 25 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 62 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him. This is his lowest favorability rating among independent voters since Quinnipiac University first asked this question of registered voters in May 2015.

Seven in 10 registered voters (70 percent) say they would not like to see Donald Trump as the 2024 Republican nominee for president, while 25 percent say they would like to see him as the nominee. Among Republican voters, 56 percent say they would like to see Trump as the 2024 Republican nominee for president, while 38 percent say they would not like to see him as the nominee. The Quinnipiac University Poll does not have a trend for this question.

Slightly more than half of registered voters (51 percent) say Trump should be disqualified from running for president again after he called to terminate the Constitution so that he can be reinstated as president, while 40 percent say he should not be disqualified.

Here is a more recent poll about whether or not Trump should be tried https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3877

In the wake of a federal indictment accusing former President Donald Trump of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, Americans 54 - 42 percent think Trump should be prosecuted on criminal charges, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University national poll released today. Democrats (95 - 5 percent) and independents (57 - 37 percent) think the former president should be prosecuted on criminal charges for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, while Republicans (85 - 12 percent) think Trump should not be prosecuted. The poll was conducted from August 10th through August 14th.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans (64 percent) think the federal criminal charges accusing former President Trump of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election are either very serious (52 percent) or somewhat serious (12 percent), while roughly one-third (32 percent) think they are either not too serious (11 percent) or not serious at all (21 percent).

And finally....

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans (68 percent) think that if a person is convicted of a felony, they should not still be eligible to be president of the United States, while 23 percent think a person should still be eligible.

To summarize, large majorities of Americans:

1. Disapprove of Trump
2. Think think he should be prosecuted
3. Think the charges against him are serious
4. Think if he is convicted he should disqualified from holding office.

The Republican party primary voters are a completely different story. But they don't decide general elections, independent and swing voters do.

[Josh]

Well in that case let’s just restrict elections to only “independent” voters.

[Josh]

To summarize, large majorities of Americans:

1. Disapprove of Trump
2. Think think he should be prosecuted
3. Think the charges against him are serious
4. Think if he is convicted he should disqualified from holding office.

Regarding #4, an opinion poll doesn’t override the Constitution.

[Ken]

Well in that case let’s just restrict elections to only “independent” voters.

They basically decide things anyway.

Republicans and Democrats are both pretty locked in, especially in the past few elections. So Independents and people who are basically less engaged tend to decide elections. Independents swung for Bush in 2000 and 2004. The swung for Obama in 2008 and 2012. They swung for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020.

Who knows what will happen in 2024. But is suspect the grievance politics of constantly relitigating the 2020 election will not be a winning strategy. It didn't work in 2022. Candidates who were election deniers did measurably worse than Republicans who were not. I suspect the same thing will happen in 2024. Candidates who can express a positive platform and direction for the future will do well. Candidates who can't stop talking about 2020, not so much.