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In 1992, Steven M. Nolt wrote about a surprising turn of events for progressive minded Anabaptists.

He titled, his article, The Mennonite Eclipse. In the article he describes how the Plain People, once thought to be a dying movement, were heading towards eclipsing progressive groups in the USA, in terms of numbers.

You can read this article at the following link, starting at archive page 47 and continuing thru 51 (Article pages 8-12)
https://archive.org/details/festivalqua ... 7/mode/2up
(On a PC you can Zoom in and then move the page around with your mouse to make for easier reading.)

A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:49 pm A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

The non-conference churches came out of more liberal churches. They were not stocked with Old Orders or Ultra Conservatives. So I would suppose that over time, another similar movement would come about, and a new group of conservatives would appear.

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:49 pm A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

The first question is if you consider Intentionalists who are horse-and-buggy and Plain Church Movement groups (also horse and buggy) to be "Old Orders" or "ultra conservatives". If not, these people would exist and grow in sufficient numbers to sustain the movement, although I suspect the Intentionalists could have a chance of dying out. The PCM people wouldn't.

R7ehr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 5:00 pm

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:49 pm A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

The non-conference churches came out of more liberal churches. They were not stocked with Old Orders or Ultra Conservatives. So I would suppose that over time, another similar movement would come about, and a new group of conservatives would appear.

I wonder if this has still been the case in recent memory. I can think of very few people who once attended an MC USA church and are now plain people, although I am one myself, so is my brother and his wife, and so is my erstwhile business partner and his wife. But I think we are really not the norm at all.

I can't think of any "true" liberal / progressive / mainline / mainstream Mennonites who have ended up in plain circles in the last 20 years. I am sure some exist, but I just don't seem to know of any.

The author's predictions are not entirely correct:

It won’t be easy to listen to a Beachy Amish appraisal of that home entertainment center we just bought, either.

I suspect the average MC USA person would find the appraisal of a typical Beachy person these days pretty easy to listen to.

JohnH wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 6:40 pm The author's predictions are not entirely correct:

It won’t be easy to listen to a Beachy Amish appraisal of that home entertainment center we just bought, either.

I suspect the average MC USA person would find the appraisal of a typical Beachy person these days pretty easy to listen to.

Was he talking about 1992 or predicting the future?

R7ehr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 5:00 pm

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:49 pm A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

The non-conference churches came out of more liberal churches. They were not stocked with Old Orders or Ultra Conservatives. So I would suppose that over time, another similar movement would come about, and a new group of conservatives would appear.

At the time the non conference folks left, they were leaving churches that were still "Plain", if plain means requiring skirts and headcoverings for women and designated attire for men. I agree with JohnH that you don't see groups of Anabaptists leaving non-plain churches to become Plain churches.

It seems to me that Intermediate, Moderate, and Progressive Conservatives have trouble maintaining their numbers unless they keep gradually becoming more like the more liberal folks they left. If they keep the same standards as a couple decades before, they are reliant on ex Old Orders and Ultra Conservatives to maintain their numbers.

JohnH wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 6:07 pm

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:49 pm A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

The first question is if you consider Intentionalists who are horse-and-buggy and Plain Church Movement groups (also horse and buggy) to be "Old Orders" or "ultra conservatives". If not, these people would exist and grow in sufficient numbers to sustain the movement, although I suspect the Intentionalists could have a chance of dying out. The PCM people wouldn't.

Sorry but I don't know who these intentionalists are that you are referring to nor who the PCM people are.

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 7:29 pm

JohnH wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 6:07 pm

Ernie wrote: ↑Tue Nov 25, 2025 4:49 pm A question.

How long do you think there would continue to be Plain Anabaptists, if Old Orders and Ultra-conservatives ceased to exist?

The first question is if you consider Intentionalists who are horse-and-buggy and Plain Church Movement groups (also horse and buggy) to be "Old Orders" or "ultra conservatives". If not, these people would exist and grow in sufficient numbers to sustain the movement, although I suspect the Intentionalists could have a chance of dying out. The PCM people wouldn't.

Sorry but I don't know who these intentionalists are that you are referring to nor who the PCM people are.

Internationalists being people like Greg McAllum’s in Tasmania, who don’t have an Anabaptist background but attempt to live a horse a buggy lifestyle. They try to intentionally live by certain principles.

The PCM would be the movement describe in Hoover’s paper. Examples would be Scottsville type churches like Delano, the Spencer type church, or the Lobelville type churches, or the Orthodox Mennonites of Ontario.

Charity groups seem to try to source heavily from PCM groups. They actually consider them a “mission field”, to the point that Delano has a ban on their youth attending Charity attempts to “reach” them.