By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

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Bootstrap
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by Bootstrap »

Soloist wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 5:42 pm
Bootstrap wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 4:24 pm I assume we agree that the average Russian or Chinese person is worse off than the average American and we do not want to pick their system. I assume you are not arguing that we want the seas to be so dangerous that people do not dare ship goods.
I have no way of knowing if the average Russian or Chinese is worse off. I haven’t been to either country to compare with my own experience.
I have, enough to have formed my own opinion. And I was in a number of Eastern European countries before the Wall fell. I also lived in East Berlin for years starting soon after the Wall fell and knew people who had lived in East Germany all their lives quite well.

Russia's economy is a little smaller than Italy's, with 2 1/2 times Italy's population. Geographically, it is about 57 times larger than Italy. So its economy is really not performing well.

China’s economy is much larger in absolute terms, but its per-capita income is still much lower, with significantly lower living standards. And it's a nightmare when it comes to personal freedom or the ability for businesses to develop without government interference. China produces the bulk of the world's widgets, but they are significantly less well off than Americans or Europeans or people in many other parts of the world.

So part of this is subjective experience and part of it is hard numbers. I don't think I would look to Russia to show us how to create a great economy. Or a free country. Or a wise military and economic strategy.
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Soloist
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by Soloist »

Bootstrap wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 7:54 pm
First off, I notice that both you and Josh are working from the podcast, which is different from the article. I have been working from the article, which is why I asked people to read it. That may be one source of differences in our understanding of what she is saying. I did listen to the podcast, but not recently.
no I'm not. I have no idea what podcast you are referring to, I listened to her lecture on almost the same subject but it was uploaded back in 2023 or 2022. I also read several of her war strategy journals which only underscore the point I've made that she knows better.

But I still don't see why you cannot do tariffs and economic incentives in her framework. She explicitly says economic incentives are important. As far as I can tell, she never says tariffs are always wrong. She did give a talk called “Tariffs Created Chaos 100 Years Ago” that discusses the historical effects of tariff escalations in the early 20th century, saying that tariff wars and protectionism in the 1930s disrupted global trade flows, contributed to economic contraction, and helped create conditions for rising geopolitical tensions by undermining the pre-war economic order. Here's an excerpt:
you can continue to change the argument but I don't see a point. I've stated my point and I wasn't interested in arguing about some hypnotical alternative view of how her system is still the best. I wasn't arguing on that. I was stating her entire case was flawed because of her examples and cherry picked data.

And I think most historians would agree that the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 sharply reduced trade, prompted retaliatory barriers, and made the Great Depression worse. I cannot think of a time in history where broad-based tariff wars worked out well for the countries involved - can you?
Not interested in justifying sanctions and condemning tariffs. This is just her political position as she also points out how damaging the sanctions on Japan were and indirectly/directly caused Pearl Harbor (one of her war college articles)
Targeted tariffs for things like pharmaceuticals and chips would be different, I think. But I think it's probably better to have the government invest directly in these industries and their research. The goal is to fund these things at home, and just taxing foreign production does not automatically do that. Government can also choose to buy from domestic suppliers in industries where it wants to promote production at home.

Funding training for skilled labor can also help.
The Chips bill was a good start, but its not nearly enough and her system caused these problems.
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Soloist
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by Soloist »

for fun I fed our debates into a few llm's and asked them who won, who was consistent and what the primary point of each user was.

These were specifically stripped of identifiers so they had no bias reviewing it.
Gemini likes Bootstrap
Claude likes me
Chatgpt hedged
They are answering different questions:

Soloist: What will actually happen?

Bootstrap: What could happen in principle?

Neither explicitly names this distinction, so they talk past each other.
They were pretty terrible at figuring out my point so perhaps thats part of the problem and you aren't following me. I'm specifically pointing out:

1: her paper is flawed through and through and fails to use accurate history by cherry picking time limited examples.
2: she does not account for the serious dangers the strategy put American interests into.
3: although lesser point, the global uplifting is done on the backs of those it pushes down.

as for me, I'm not advocating for any particular strategy outside of domestic industry.


I'm not sure on Gemini, but Claude is the only one of the three actually able to hold the whole discussion in context. Chatgpt tends to lose focus quickly.
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ken_sylvania
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by ken_sylvania »

Bootstrap wrote: Fri Dec 19, 2025 12:30 pm
Paine wrote:By contrast, states with an oceanic moat have relative security from invasion. They can thus focus on compounding wealth rather than on fighting neighbors. These maritime states see money, not territory, as the source of power. They advance domestic prosperity through international commerce and through industry, minimizing the tradeoff between military and civilian needs. While continental hegemons gravitate toward finite-game, winner-take-all strategies that are ruinous to the defeated, those vested in the maritime order prefer the infinite game of wealth-compounding, mutually beneficial transactions. They view neighbors as trade partners, not enemies.
Paine presents the above as a summary of her argument. I think it's both simplistic and historically inaccurate. I simply can't think of any country - and certainly not any historically powerful and wealthy country - that was "relatively secure" from invasion because of an oceanic moat. To the extent that the US kinda-sorta had this advantage, it was only after consolidating a tremendous amount of territory by armed force, and dividing an entire continent up into essentially "spheres of influence" with Canada, US, and Mexico each taking a piece.
Even if one is willing to accept the US as a maritime state, the fact is that the US spends an above average percentage of its GDP on military spending, exporting death and destruction around the world. In a macabre sort of a way this does correlate with her actual words here in that the US doesn't have much of a trade-off between military and civilian needs - there are huge profits to be made by selling war equipment to the US Government which the US Government then sends to other countries to allow them to kill each other. However, by no means is it a "mutually beneficial transaction."
The maritime worldview goes back to the ancient Athenians, whose rimland empire depended on accruing wealth from coastal trade. Such states wish to treat the oceans as commons, so all can share them and safely trade. It is not a coincidence that Hugo Grotius, the founding father of international law, came from the Dutch Republic, a trading empire. And since World War II, commercially minded countries have developed regional and global institutions to facilitate trade, minimize transaction costs, and compound wealth. They have coordinated their coast guards and navies to eliminate piracy so that trade gets through. This has produced an evolving maritime, rules-based order with dozens of members that together enforce the regulations that protect them all.
How is this particularly different from land-bounded countries? Both ocean-bounded countries and land-bounded countries have varying interest in cooperating to facilitate trade. The Silk Road trade between Europe and China wasn't ocean based. It is true that ocean trade brought tremendous wealth to certain Dutch, English, Portuguese and Spanish traders, but it's wild to say this was because they engaged in "mutually beneficial transactions" with the colonies they exploited. The Africans would like a word about the slave trade. The Jamaicans would like a word about the plantations there that generated tremendous wealth for the French. The Chinese would like a word about the Opium traders.

I don't have time to write out all of my objections to the claims made in this article, but I think overall it would be much simpler to say that in general maintaining friendly relationships rather than unnecessarily antagonizing other countries, in connection with not bombing other countries and killing people, is probably going to result in less death and property damage. She chooses to label certain behavior as "maritime" vs. "continental" and then proceeds to describe the behavior of certain ocean bounded countries as "continental" and the behavior of certain land-bounded countries as "maritime". :?

Maybe she can explain why the Spanish and French economies continue to struggle, despite their participation in the EU and their lack of "wasting" money on military rather than civilian needs.
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JohnH
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by JohnH »

Bootstrap wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 7:54 pm First off, I notice that both you and Josh are working from the podcast, which is different from the article.
I worked off the article, also I listened to it via text-to-speech whilst I was busy doing things (you know, doing one of those "jobs Americans won't do", in this case, building fencing and handling cattle).
Funding training for skilled labor can also help.
I don't see how this makes any sense when we have a large amount of presumably skilled workers graduating college who cannot find a job, and when various "tech" employers are busy laying off Americans and yet demand more H-1B visas because they claim they can't find skilled workers in America.
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Bootstrap
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by Bootstrap »

ken_sylvania wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 9:24 pm
Bootstrap wrote: Fri Dec 19, 2025 12:30 pm
Paine wrote:By contrast, states with an oceanic moat have relative security from invasion. They can thus focus on compounding wealth rather than on fighting neighbors. These maritime states see money, not territory, as the source of power. They advance domestic prosperity through international commerce and through industry, minimizing the tradeoff between military and civilian needs. While continental hegemons gravitate toward finite-game, winner-take-all strategies that are ruinous to the defeated, those vested in the maritime order prefer the infinite game of wealth-compounding, mutually beneficial transactions. They view neighbors as trade partners, not enemies.
Paine presents the above as a summary of her argument.
Yes, I think that's fair.
ken_sylvania wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 9:24 pm I think it's both simplistic and historically inaccurate. I simply can't think of any country - and certainly not any historically powerful and wealthy country - that was "relatively secure" from invasion because of an oceanic moat. To the extent that the US kinda-sorta had this advantage, it was only after consolidating a tremendous amount of territory by armed force, and dividing an entire continent up into essentially "spheres of influence" with Canada, US, and Mexico each taking a piece.
I think Paine herself says that the US operated as a continental power during that time.

To me, two things make sense:

1. The rest of the world does not share a border between two countries. Conflicts along that border primarily involve those two countries.
2. The ocean is more of a free space, shared by all.
ken_sylvania wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 9:24 pm Even if one is willing to accept the US as a maritime state, the fact is that the US spends an above average percentage of its GDP on military spending, exporting death and destruction around the world. In a macabre sort of a way this does correlate with her actual words here in that the US doesn't have much of a trade-off between military and civilian needs - there are huge profits to be made by selling war equipment to the US Government which the US Government then sends to other countries to allow them to kill each other. However, by no means is it a "mutually beneficial transaction."
We can spend our money and energy on instruments of destruction or on things that bring life and healing. The choice matters. We can invest in conflict or we can invest in cooperation. The choice matters. That's the part I am most sure I agree with.
ken_sylvania wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 9:24 pm How is this particularly different from land-bounded countries? Both ocean-bounded countries and land-bounded countries have varying interest in cooperating to facilitate trade. The Silk Road trade between Europe and China wasn't ocean based. It is true that ocean trade brought tremendous wealth to certain Dutch, English, Portuguese and Spanish traders, but it's wild to say this was because they engaged in "mutually beneficial transactions" with the colonies they exploited. The Africans would like a word about the slave trade. The Jamaicans would like a word about the plantations there that generated tremendous wealth for the French. The Chinese would like a word about the Opium traders.
That's fair. But I think the fact that the ocean is shared space is a significant difference - we have to figure out who gets to fish where, and it's not determined by borders. We have to decide whether and how to ensure safe shipping, when 90% of all goods traded come on ships.
ken_sylvania wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 9:24 pmI don't have time to write out all of my objections to the claims made in this article, but I think overall it would be much simpler to say that in general maintaining friendly relationships rather than unnecessarily antagonizing other countries, in connection with not bombing other countries and killing people, is probably going to result in less death and property damage. She chooses to label certain behavior as "maritime" vs. "continental" and then proceeds to describe the behavior of certain ocean bounded countries as "continental" and the behavior of certain land-bounded countries as "maritime". :?

Maybe she can explain why the Spanish and French economies continue to struggle, despite their participation in the EU and their lack of "wasting" money on military rather than civilian needs.
It may well be clearer and cleaner without using the "maritime" versus "continental" labels.
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JohnH
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by JohnH »

we have to figure out who gets to fish where, and it's not determined by borders
Most of the ocean is a free for all that isn’t owned by anybody. This is resulting in severe overfishing and collapse of fisheries around the world.

There is no “we have to figure out who gets to fish where”. The largest nations are not signatories to any global treaties restricting overfishing.

The UN concepts that do exist regarding exclusive economic zones for fishing are most certainly based on national borders.
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Jazman
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by Jazman »

Bootstrap wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 1:15 pm
Soloist wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 12:50 pm
Bootstrap wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 12:36 pmI think this is where we disagree.

Fragile supply chains are orthogonal to Paine’s framework. Domestic production of critical goods is more expensive, and sustaining it at scale always requires non-market intervention.

You can do that under either system. The real question isn’t the framework, but whether you’re willing to pay the cost to maintain onshore capacity and redundancy.
I agree that we disagree. The system that Paine advocates for causes the fragile supply chains. They are not orthogonal.
I'm having hard time following your logic here.

In any system, you face the same choice: either you pay more to produce critical goods domestically, or you buy cheaper goods from wherever they’re available. That tradeoff exists regardless of whether you’re operating in Paine’s framework or not.
You seem to be assuming that a rules-based global system requires always choosing the cheapest option. I don’t think that follows. Nothing in that framework prevents using non-market policies to sustain onshore capacity and redundancy.
Would there be some examples of modern countries doing that now? Possibly Germany? The Swiss? (They're not solely self-efficient, but they also maintain highly technical, high paying, high value 'on-shore' industry, etc? They're economy and culture's aren't pursuing the cheapest option like america seems to do... just thinking out loud...
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barnhart
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by barnhart »

I think it's pretty common to try. Where would the US aircraft industry be without fat government contracting. It "works" on a limited scale. There likely are longer term effects like loosing the competitive edge like Boeing who frittered away their world domination by becoming soft and lazy.
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JohnH
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Re: By Land or by Sea: The US after WWII

Post by JohnH »

Jazman wrote: Fri Jan 09, 2026 6:33 am
Bootstrap wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 1:15 pm
Soloist wrote: Sat Dec 20, 2025 12:50 pm

I agree that we disagree. The system that Paine advocates for causes the fragile supply chains. They are not orthogonal.
I'm having hard time following your logic here.

In any system, you face the same choice: either you pay more to produce critical goods domestically, or you buy cheaper goods from wherever they’re available. That tradeoff exists regardless of whether you’re operating in Paine’s framework or not.
You seem to be assuming that a rules-based global system requires always choosing the cheapest option. I don’t think that follows. Nothing in that framework prevents using non-market policies to sustain onshore capacity and redundancy.
Would there be some examples of modern countries doing that now? Possibly Germany? The Swiss? (They're not solely self-efficient, but they also maintain highly technical, high paying, high value 'on-shore' industry, etc? They're economy and culture's aren't pursuing the cheapest option like america seems to do... just thinking out loud...
Considering how much Germany’s industrial output has plummeted not a particularly good example to follow. But before that happened, they imposed high tariffs that basically forced consumers to buy domestically made goods and allowed paying better wages.

Regarding the Swiss, their diaspora (such as Amish) also prefer to make purchasing decisions to buy high quality locally made goods. However, it doesn’t seem like a good solution to try to make everybody be Swiss (despite the best efforts of some Anabaptists to do so).
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