Poll: Auto Accident Fatalities and Injuries

[barnhart]

Ken, I like your vision of a more people friendly, less car centric future but how sure are you the balance of power and law will not be captured by the tech giants for their ends. Just 100 years ago the streets were legally given over to the automobile and simply being in the street without a car was criminalized as "jaywalking". I think something like the latter is more likely.

[Ken]

Ken, I like your vision of a more people friendly, less car centric future but how sure are you the balance of power and law will not be captured by the tech giants for their ends. Just 100 years ago the streets were legally given over to the automobile and simply being in the street without a car was criminalized as "jaywalking". I think something like the latter is more likely.

I'm not sure about anything. I can just anticipate the upcoming conflicts if self-driving cars are designed to be safe and avoid hitting pedestrians. As they will have to be in order to legally use the roads. That is obviously going to change the behaviors of pedestrians and other people on the streets. For example, if people know for certain they can just step out into a 6-lane street and walk across it mid-block and all the cars will automatically stop, then I think people will start doing that. Especially in big cities where there are lots of aggressive pedestrians as well as vagrants and such on the streets. And cyclists will be more willing to take the lane and ride out in traffic if they know cars aren't going to mow them down. Which could also slow traffic.

I expect self-driving car companies to demand all kinds of new infrastructure to prevent that such as fencing off access to streets, using facial ID and such to try to identify and fine "jaywalkers" and others who interfere with the flow of traffic. But I don't know that they will win that battle. We barely have any traffic enforcement on our streets as it is. And municipalities aren't necessarily going to want to spend billions just to make life easier for giant auto-tech companies who want to privatize the streets for their own profit.

Were we wind up I have no idea. But one thing is certain. Increasing safety isn't necessarily going to increase efficiency of the system. To the contrary, it could be the opposite.

[barnhart]

Who knows, whatever happens, I don't think the most likely scenario will be a smooth transition to driverless cars in dense urban areas.

[Josh]

It’s hard to imagine a future where self governing cars have carte Blanche to just mow people over and get away with it.

If they do, perhaps we could carry car-disabling firearms to fire upon any autonomous vehicles before they kill us.

[Neto]

It’s hard to imagine a future where self governing cars have carte Blanche to just mow people over and get away with it.

If they do, perhaps we could carry car-disabling firearms to fire upon any autonomous vehicles before they kill us.

Maybe a new business venture will provide wireless scrambling devices to stop these un-manned machines in their tracks, so to speak. (I doubt if I will live to see it, but it would be funny to me.)

[Ken]

It’s hard to imagine a future where self governing cars have carte Blanche to just mow people over and get away with it.

If they do, perhaps we could carry car-disabling firearms to fire upon any autonomous vehicles before they kill us.

I predict the opposite. NHTSA won't allow any autonomous vehicles that will unsafely mow down pedestrians, cyclists, etc. I expect they will test such vehicles in endless car/pedestrian scenarios to make sure they don't just kill people before they are authorized for use on our roadways. Companies are currently pushing the envelope by trying to do testing on our roads. But eventually the government is going to have to regulate them like they do with all other aspects of road safety from crumple zones to air bags to infant car seats.

The question in my mind is whether a lot of autonomous cars on the road will make traffic flow MORE efficient or LESS efficient. I'm not convinced they will improve traffic flow and could just make traffic worse. ESPECIALLY self-driving taxis if they are just clogging up the centers of our cities endlessly circling looking for fares because there isn't places for them to park.

[Neto]

In places like Manhattan I expect people will learn they can just walk in front of them which will basically re-write the rules of right of way on the streets and highways allowing pedestrians, cyclists, scooter users, etc. to claim rights of way. It has the potential to greatly increase traffic congestion if traffic on a street stops for every pedestrian who decides to cross the street anywhere. And I expect self-driving car companies will start demanding major infrastructure investments to accommodate/alleviate that.

Right now they are a new thing in places like San Francisco, but pedestrians and others are already learning how to mess with those cars and block them.

We get a tremendous amount of traffic through Berlin in the "tourist season", which is increasingly almost any time during the year. We have two of these pedestrian right-of-way cross-walks in the center of town, and yes, it causes traffic congestion, because the result is that vehicles often cannot move through the two main intersections when they have a green light. Traffic often then backs up well out of town, in both directions, but especially to the East, where there are another two traffic lights farther outside of town.

Here is a fascinating video of a trip down a San Francisco street in 1900. Notice how many pedestrians are crossing the street anywhere, not just at street corners. I don't think crosswalks even existed. That was possible because vehicles were much slower moving and horses aren't going to run over people, they will stop and swerve if you step in front of a horse.

If software prevents self-driving cars from running over pedestrians and cyclists and other non-car road users I expect they will quickly learn to carve out more rights of way in traffic, knowing they are safe in doing so. And that is how it will have to be, otherwise self-driving car companies will be driven out of business due to all the endless liability claims over dead and injured pedestrians and cyclists.

I don't necessarily think it will be a bad thing to have more equitable sharing of the road spaces like we had 125 years ago. But it will be different. And it won't necessarily improve traffic flow through our cities. It will probably make it worse. Self-driving cars aren't going to be some magic solution to traffic congestion. To the contrary.

I have seen this video before - very interesting, yes, but that cannot be the year 1900. Automobiles weren't that advance at that time. Maybe 1910 or 1913, but not 1900.

Regardless, it's close to correct. But just as there was a transition period back then, there will also be one during the switch from driver controlled vehicles to driverless vehicles. (Of course a high & mighty government could shorten it, and that appears to be the direction our government is trending.) So how long it will be before pedestrians can really safely assume that all vehicles are autonomous (driverless) might take a period of years. Then there is also the question of how often one of these machines will malfunction, and run someone over who makes the wrong assumption. Human beings make mistakes, and these machines are designed by the same fallible humans. And at least so far, I don't know of any machines that are completely free of malfunctions. Currently, pedestrians try to make eye contact with other drivers, and these machines are not capable of that. (Or is there a plan to put a human-looking robot in the driver's seat, one capable of sending non-verbal 'body language signals' ?)

True, they DO have table saws now that will stop if your hand gets in the blade. But I wouldn't suggest (or dare) test it with anything but a hotdog. And, even if the vehicle attempted to stop, there could always be a brake failure. However, as I commented on Josh's post, I doubt if I will live long enough to see this "dream" come true.

[Josh]

It’s hard to imagine a future where self governing cars have carte Blanche to just mow people over and get away with it.

If they do, perhaps we could carry car-disabling firearms to fire upon any autonomous vehicles before they kill us.

I predict the opposite. NHTSA won't allow any autonomous vehicles that will unsafely mow down pedestrians, cyclists, etc. I expect they will test such vehicles in endless car/pedestrian scenarios to make sure they don't just kill people before they are authorized for use on our roadways. Companies are currently pushing the envelope by trying to do testing on our roads. But eventually the government is going to have to regulate them like they do with all other aspects of road safety from crumple zones to air bags to infant car seats.

The question in my mind is whether a lot of autonomous cars on the road will make traffic flow MORE efficient or LESS efficient. I'm not convinced they will improve traffic flow and could just make traffic worse. ESPECIALLY self-driving taxis if they are just clogging up the centers of our cities endlessly circling looking for fares because there isn't places for them to park.

Let’s just hope Boeing doesn’t enter the field. With self inspection and self regulation. “Don’t worry, trust us, our stuff is safe.”

Ultimately cities should be for people, not cars. The downtown area in my local village is smaller than one end of a Walmart parking lot to the extreme end. You’d think we could just park in satellite parking and hoof it a few blocks.

But America is increasingly fat, out of shape, and sporting a disability placard.

[Ken]

It’s hard to imagine a future where self governing cars have carte Blanche to just mow people over and get away with it.

If they do, perhaps we could carry car-disabling firearms to fire upon any autonomous vehicles before they kill us.

I predict the opposite. NHTSA won't allow any autonomous vehicles that will unsafely mow down pedestrians, cyclists, etc. I expect they will test such vehicles in endless car/pedestrian scenarios to make sure they don't just kill people before they are authorized for use on our roadways. Companies are currently pushing the envelope by trying to do testing on our roads. But eventually the government is going to have to regulate them like they do with all other aspects of road safety from crumple zones to air bags to infant car seats.

The question in my mind is whether a lot of autonomous cars on the road will make traffic flow MORE efficient or LESS efficient. I'm not convinced they will improve traffic flow and could just make traffic worse. ESPECIALLY self-driving taxis if they are just clogging up the centers of our cities endlessly circling looking for fares because there isn't places for them to park.

Let’s just hope Boeing doesn’t enter the field. With self inspection and self regulation. “Don’t worry, trust us, our stuff is safe.”

Ultimately cities should be for people, not cars. The downtown area in my local village is smaller than one end of a Walmart parking lot to the extreme end. You’d think we could just park in satellite parking and hoof it a few blocks.

But America is increasingly fat, out of shape, and sporting a disability placard.

Yes, when we moved back to the Pacific Northwest from Texas, walkability was a major criteria in finding a new place to live. I was sick of car-centric suburbs that make all other modes of transportation (even walking) impossible.

When I went back to visit last summer, it did strike me how much fatter Texans are than Washingtonians. It is noticeable when you are out in public. At least it was in Waco.

[Josh]

When I went back to visit last summer, it did strike me how much fatter Texans are than Washingtonians. It is noticeable when you are out in public. At least it was in Waco.

Fun fact: people in Arkansas or Alabama (can't remember which) used to be the most obese in the nation in the 1990s.

But that rate now would be the lowest in the nation. It's spread everywhere.