Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[mike]

Ukraine seems to be demanding the rest of the world be willing to start WW3 on its behalf. This is insane.

Should Cuba and Venezuela demand theh enter CSTO in order to ensure the U.S. will leave them alone? Would America tolerate a CSTO “peacekeeping force” in Cuba?

Ukraine might cease to exist soon, so you shouldn't have to worry too much longer about their "insanity."

[Szdfan]

So…not simple or easy.

That's why this is such a bleak situation. There doesn't seem to be a good off-ramp for either Ukraine or Russia. I think that the outcome is probably determined as much by events on the ground as by negotiations. If the Ukraine can't repel the Russians, none of the talking really matters. Ukraine is history. If they can repel the Russians, or at least can keep them at bay indefinitely, things could get really ugly. I think Putin is more likely to escalate with chemical or biological or nuclear weapon than he is to reduce his demands or lower expectations.

Yes…from the same post:

As a senior NATO official suggested, negotiations only work, as they finally did in Bosnia, when a conflict reaches a stalemate or one side wins. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is yet ready to stop fighting — Russia in its quest to seize Ukraine’s seacoast, main cities and the capital, Kyiv; or Ukraine to resist. Even if Russia’s advances have slowed, Mr. Putin gives no indication that his military or political goals have changed.

Until the situation on the ground changes, I don’t think there’s going to be a negotiated peace.

[mike]

Until the situation on the ground changes, I don’t think there’s going to be a negotiated peace.

Me either. I would be really glad to be surprised in that department, but I don't expect it.

[temporal1]

Szdfan:
I think these negotiations are a lot more complicated than people are pretending they are.

the talks are PRIVATE. they’ve been going on pretty much all this time. OF COURSE there’s more than any report or tweet offers.
it’s hard to not know. to be forced to wait. the noise does not stop. the more silence, the more speculation.

but, so far, whether tweet or lengthier report, there hasn’t been much variation in what’s reportedly going on.
i consider it a positive. i consider continuing talks a positive.

it’s like the public waiting for a courtroom ruling. or a family waiting outside for the birth of a child.
lots of speculation. eventually, rulings are known, babies are born.

i don’t see any pretending. i’m not sure there’s anything constructive about inferring there is. do you?

- - - - - - -

in the recent Jussie Smollett case, the judge is recorded delivering his verdict/sentencing to JS.
it was lengthy, detailed, kinda boring .. but he included many facts considered NOT before made public.

the public needs to accept it: ALL FACTS WILL NOT BE KNOWN. don’t pretend they are.

btw, i read JS is out, not serving his 150 days. why would he?? judges rule, lawyers spring their clients. we know that.

[RZehr]

I thought this was interesting, and maybe has some credibility since it was made a year ago. Before current troubles.

[Falco Underhill]

I thought this was interesting, and maybe has some credibility since it was made a year ago. Before current troubles.

From the end of the second video —

"If President Trump is re-elected it's likely Putin will take that as a green light to invade ..."

Two facts to consider here:

1. The Orange revolution occurred during the Obama/Biden administration,
when Biden was Obama's point man in Ukraine. Don't you suppose it's possible Putin suspected the Obama/Biden administration was behind that, even if others regard that as just a conspiracy theory?

2. If Trump was really so on board with Russia taking back Ukraine, wouldn't it have made more sense to go in while Trump was still in office, instead of waiting till the Biden administration got in?

[Ken]

The problem or inaccuracy with those videos is that they treat Central and Eastern Europe as if the people and nations living there have no agency or rights of their own.

Unlike the former USSR, NATO is not an independent entity. There is no NATO parliament and no such thing as NATO troops independent of any specific country. It is not the equivalent to the USSR which was actually an empire. NATO did not conquer and occupy eastern Europe. NATO is simply a defense alliance between like-minded nations. And it has been extremely effective in maintaining peace in Western Europe for 75 years when previously western Europe was a battleground for most of its history.

The former Soviet states like Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. And the former Warsaw Pact states like Poland, Hungary and Romania all had choices when the USSR became economically and politically unsustainable and crumbled. They could have cast their fates eastward or westward. They had all experienced 50 years of Soviet occupation and repression following their capture as spoils of war during WW2. I would suggest that it isn't so much an issue of NATO expanding eastward as Central Europeans choosing on their own to cast their fate with the west. As was their right to do so.

In any event, Russia is simply no longer a great power. Economically it is more or less Spain but with lots of nuclear weapons and about half the size of the UK. It looks like this time they have bitten off more than they can chew and will bring ruin on their own economy and people as a result. It didn't have to be this way. This was entirely a war of choice by Putin and Russia. This is how the Russian economy looked before they invaded Ukraine. With the collapse of the ruble and sanctions it stands to shrink another 20-30% and will likely wind up about like Mexico when all is said and done.

[RZehr]

I thought this was interesting, and maybe has some credibility since it was made a year ago. Before current troubles.

From the end of the second video —

"If President Trump is re-elected it's likely Putin will take that as a green light to invade ..."

Two facts to consider here:

1. The Orange revolution occurred during the Obama/Biden administration,
when Biden was Obama's point man in Ukraine. Don't you suppose it's possible Putin suspected the Obama/Biden administration was behind that, even if others regard that as just a conspiracy theory?

2. If Trump was really so on board with Russia taking back Ukraine, wouldn't it have made more sense to go in while Trump was still in office, instead of waiting till the Biden administration got in?

I don’t have any comments on these questions one way or another.

[RZehr]

The problem or inaccuracy with those videos is that they treat Central and Eastern Europe as if the people and nations living there have no agency or rights of their own.

Unlike the former USSR, NATO is not an independent entity. There is no NATO parliament and no such thing as NATO troops independent of any specific country. It is not the equivalent to the USSR which was actually an empire. NATO did not conquer and occupy eastern Europe. NATO is simply a defense alliance between like-minded nations. And it has been extremely effective in maintaining peace in Western Europe for 75 years when previously western Europe was a battleground for most of its history.

The former Soviet states like Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. And the former Warsaw Pact states like Poland, Hungary and Romania all had choices when the USSR became economically and politically unsustainable and crumbled. They could have cast their fates eastward or westward. They had all experienced 50 years of Soviet occupation and repression following their capture as spoils of war during WW2. I would suggest that it isn't so much an issue of NATO expanding eastward as Central Europeans choosing on their own to cast their fate with the west. As was their right to do so.

In any event, Russia is simply no longer a great power. Economically it is more or less Spain but with lots of nuclear weapons and about half the size of the UK. It looks like this time they have bitten off more than they can chew and will bring ruin on their own economy and people as a result. It didn't have to be this way. This was entirely a war of choice by Putin and Russia. This is how the Russian economy looked before they invaded Ukraine. With the collapse of the ruble and sanctions it stands to shrink another 20-30% and will likely wind up about like Mexico when all is said and done.

Just one comment about GDP. I think in terms of strength and military power comparisons, wouldn’t GDP (PPP) be more useful? A soldier is not more or less dead, if the 7.62x38 round that killed him cost $0.01 or $10. It’s the same round, no matter what the military paid for it.

[Ken]

Just one comment about GDP. I think in terms of strength and military power comparisons, wouldn’t GDP (PPP) be more useful? A soldier is not more or less dead, if the 7.62x38 round that killed him cost $0.01 or $10. It’s the same round, no matter what the military paid for it.

I'm not sure I understand your point.

Modern conventional warfare is exceedingly expensive. What we are seeing in Ukraine isn't about rifle rounds. It's about cruise missiles, high altitude bombing, precision-guided artillery, and precision-guided anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. And it is about logistics. Every Russian combat unit inside Ukraine has a very long "tail" back to their supply depots in Russia which requires hundreds upon hundreds of trucks and other transport to keep them supplied with fuel, ammo, food, and every other type of supply. Every additional mile they extend into Ukraine adds to this supply line two-fold as the trucks have to go back and forth each trip. Just one single firing of one of their common rocket artillery weapons requires an entire truckload of big heavy rockets to reload. Every time you fire that weapon it means another truck trip back to Russia and return to reload. Add to that the fuel trucks necessary so mobile artillery can maneuver and not get caught out in stationary locations where it can be targeted in return. The Ukrainians are now using drones to spot Russian artillery and using them to target their counter-fire. Much of these long supply chains run through enemy territory where Ukrainian forces lie in wait miles away with precision guided weapons to take them out.

Modern wars are fought between economies, not just troops and bullets. And the Russians look to be soon running on empty. Half of what they thought they spent in terms of modernized military equipment is actually floating around the Mediterranean in the form of 500 ft luxury yachts and tied up in overseas bank accounts. And a huge amount of the smaller stuff like fuel, provisions, and such seems to have been pilfered and sold off by troops seeking to augment their meager salaries. The tooth to tail ratio of modern conventional armies is something like 1 to 5 or even lower. And all of that is exceedingly expensive.

Will China bail them out? I have no idea. But I suspect China is only concerned about China. And China shares a longer border with Russia than any other country. I expect a weakened Russia but not one that has completely collapsed into anarchy is to their advantage. Especially a Russia that continues to be sanctioned by the west. As they will be able to pick up Russian resources and fuel at fire-sale prices. China is a huge importer of oil. It is the largest single importer of crude oil on the planet. And it imports vast quantities of grain. The more the west shuts off Russian markets for oil and grains, the cheaper those things become for China. It is to China's interest that Russia stays in a quagmire in Ukraine and doesn't achieve a quick victory because that increases their bargaining power and makes it easier for China to expand its influence in all the border republics of central Asia.