Oil Prices, Oil Flows, and the War with Iran

[Ernie]

Why would the US agree to allow only 20% of oil to flow again through the strait?

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5894 ... n-centcom/

[sojourner]

Why would the US agree to allow only 20% of oil to flow again through the strait?

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5894 ... n-centcom/

I think you are misunderstanding the article. Previously about 20% of all oil worldwide flowed thru the straits. I believe it’s talking about restoring the flow to previous levels.

[Ernie]

Why would the US agree to allow only 20% of oil to flow again through the strait?

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5894 ... n-centcom/

I think you are misunderstanding the article. Previously about 20% of all oil worldwide flowed thru the straits. I believe it’s talking about restoring the flow to previous levels.

You are right. I missed that.

[Ernie]

Trump Thought Opening the Strait of Hormuz Was Imminent. Iran Had Other Plans.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/t ... _permalink

[sojourner]

Trump Thought Opening the Strait of Hormuz Was Imminent. Iran Had Other Plans.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/t ... _permalink

Yup, nothing has changed. You can’t negotiate with a regime that does not care about the wellbeing of its people. Actually, Trump already knows this. He stated something of that nature years ago in an interview. It’s becoming quite obvious that he’s left with 2 choices neither of which is going to make him look very good. Either cater to their demands and tuck tail and run or stay in a prolonged unwinnable war. He’s got himself in quite a jam. He’s found an opponent he can’t force into submission.
In other news, in my area fuel prices are down dramatically. Pretty close to where they were before the war began.

[R7ehr]

It seems like Trump was playing 1 dimensional chess here. After Venezuela, the administration became high on their own supply. Even ready to add Cuba to the mess as well.
Thought that if he killed the Iranian leadership, internal opposition would overthrow the government and that would be his big win. I remember him trying to get the Iranians to rise up. Once that didn’t happen, no other good options seem achievable. He thought he was rolling a loaded dice that he was sure to roll a 6, and not any of the other 5 possibilities, so he didn’t worry about them. That’s what it looks like to me.

[sojourner]

It seems like Trump was playing 1 dimensional chess here. After Venezuela, the administration became high on their own supply. Even ready to add Cuba to the mess as well.
Thought that if he killed the Iranian leadership, internal opposition would overthrow the government and that would be his big win. I remember him trying to get the Iranians to rise up. Once that didn’t happen, no other good options seem achievable. He thought he was rolling a loaded dice that he was sure to roll a 6, and not any of the other 5 possibilities, so he didn’t worry about them. That’s what it looks like to me.

I agree with all of this. I would add there was an uprising and he was unable to take advantage of it for various reasons.
Also, supposedly getting rid whoever didn’t agree with him didn’t help. I think there’s always value in listening to voices with experience.
At some point he’s just going to have to leave and declare victory. Well, I guess he’s been declaring victory for months. Now it’s just time to leave. And Iran? Now they are quite incentivized to prepare for future conflicts.

[justme]

It’s becoming quite obvious that he’s left with 2 choices neither of which is going to make him look very good. Either cater to their demands and tuck tail and run or stay in a prolonged unwinnable war. He’s got himself in quite a jam. He’s found an opponent he can’t force into submission.

my question is, why did he feel the need to put himself into that situation? why did he need to even start the fight?

[Soloist]

It’s becoming quite obvious that he’s left with 2 choices neither of which is going to make him look very good. Either cater to their demands and tuck tail and run or stay in a prolonged unwinnable war. He’s got himself in quite a jam. He’s found an opponent he can’t force into submission.

my question is, why did he feel the need to put himself into that situation? why did he need to even start the fight?

I don’t think that can really be answered without getting into politics because war is a continuation of politics by force.
Suffice to say he received information, wrong or right and acted on it.

[sojourner]

It’s becoming quite obvious that he’s left with 2 choices neither of which is going to make him look very good. Either cater to their demands and tuck tail and run or stay in a prolonged unwinnable war. He’s got himself in quite a jam. He’s found an opponent he can’t force into submission.

my question is, why did he feel the need to put himself into that situation? why did he need to even start the fight?

Very good question, and one that I have myself. Publicly, he claims it was to destroy their nuclear capability even tho he assured us he destroyed it last summer.
So you can take his word for it or speculate.