Israel strikes Iran

[HondurasKeiser]

We have learned from history that while air power can be an effective strategic weapon, it is a very ineffective tactical weapon, especially when it comes to these sorts of attempted precision strikes. The Iranians are not stupid enough to leave their nuclear weapons program sitting around in places where it can be destroyed by precision air strikes.

So the more likely objective here on the part of Israel is to torpedo nuclear negotiations with Iran that could lead to the future normalizing of relations and reductions of sanctions on Iran.

I think it may be prudent to sit and hold off on arm-chair commentary until we see what the actual results of this strike are. What’s more, your conjecture above about Trump being in on it and your conjecture here about Israel doing this to torpedo the negotiations cannot both be true. Pick a theory please.

Oh please. Nearly every post in this entire thread is “armchair commentary” and will continue to be so since we will never likely know (1) the actual secret communications between Israel and the US, and (2) the actual extent of any damage. Both the actual commentary here is “armchair commentary” as is the links to Twitter commentary.

And yes, both can be true at the same time. The original Iranian JCPOA was a multi-party agreement including the EU and all the permanent members of the UN Security Council. And there is an entire international sanctions regime against IRAN involving most western countries. Nuclear talks are one of the main vehicles that Iran would use to normalize relationships with the rest of the developed world and to start clawing back sanctions. In other words, it would be the carrot for them to negotiate in the first place. That goes WAY WAY beyond simple bi-lateral talks between the US and Iran. There are many more players here than just the US and Iran.

If the US wanted to head off normalization of relations between say the EU and Iran, one way to do that would be to paint Iran as unwilling to negotiate. Israel’s obvious long-term objective here is to prevent normalization of relations with the rest of the world outside the US. Which is always likely to be the most hard-line western nation against Iran. In other words, start negotiations that they had no intention of completing with any sort of reasonable deal. And then show that Iran is intransigent.

I mean there are a whole lot of possible scenarios.

1. The Trump administration restarted Iran talks in 2025 because they realized that their abandonment of the original Iran JPCOA back in 2018 was a mistake and they wanted to get back to the point that the Obama Administration brought us to in 2015. Seems unlikely to me since if anything, the current Trump Administration is more hard-line than the previous one.

2. The Trump administration restarted Iran talks in 2025 with no intention of actually reaching some new deal. But more to forestall any normalization of relations between Iran and the EU and other western nations. Because if talks fail and Iran can be blamed for their failure that strengthens the hand of hardliners who want to prevent the rollback of any sanctions.

3. This was also part of a larger strategy to provide cover for Israeli air strikes that both Netanyahu and the Trump Administration hardliners wanted to see happen.

Both 2 and 3 can be true.

Of course 2 & 3 can be true but that of course isn’t what you claimed. You suggested the talks were a ruse and that Israel was in on the ruse. You also and separately suggested that Israel struck in order to torpedo the talks. Both of those options cannot be true and make no sense talen together.

[Ken]

I imagine if you were an Israeli living within striking distance if Iran, you’d feel differently.

If I was an Israeli I would want my government to pursue policies that make peace and stability more likely in my neighborhood. Not policies that make things worse.

Now I grant you that Israel lives in a neighborhood with a lot of bad actors. But even so, they have choices between policies that empower bad actors and policies that tend to isolate them and diminish their influence.

Prior to a few days ago, what choices had Israel made that justified being threatened with fiery annihilation by Iran?

Let's not pretend that Israel is some sort of innocent victim here. Israel and Iran have both been threatening each other with annihilation and attack for decades. And Israel has conducted near endless attacks on Iran of every sort from cyber-attacks to air strikes going back decades.

Iran is clearly one of the worst actors on the world stage, up there with Russia and North Korea. I'm not excusing anything they do. It is a horrid theocratic fundamentalist regime. But we should also be clear-eyed about Netanyahu and the Israeli hard-line right as well. They also move from one provocation to another.

[JohnH]

I imagine if you were an Israeli living within striking distance if Iran, you’d feel differently.

When was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel?

So far, there are dozens dead in Iran and hundreds of injuries.

Whereas Israel doesn't have a single death yet and a handful of injuries.

[Ken]

When was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel?

That was Wednesday October 2nd, 2024.

[Soloist]

When was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel?

That was Wednesday October 2nd, 2024.

Actually... that was a token retaliatory strike for striking Iranian officials. The Iranians had to respond but apparently did not wish to escalate things and announced its strategy ahead of time allowing plenty of time to counter it by Israel and allies.

[Ken]

When was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel?

That was Wednesday October 2nd, 2024.

Actually... that was a token retaliatory strike for striking Iranian officials. The Iranians had to respond but apparently did not wish to escalate things and announced its strategy ahead of time allowing plenty of time to counter it by Israel and allies.

The Iranian official who was killed was killed in an air strike against the main Hezbollah headquarters in Lebanon, which at that time was engaged in missile and rocket strikes against Israel. If the Iranian official wasn't hanging out with Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon he wouldn't have been killed. This is the Iranian official in question, Revolutionary Guard General Abbas Nilforoushan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abbas_Nilforoushan

What were the exact circumstances of his death?

On 27 September 2024, Nilforoushan was killed at the main headquarters of the Shia organization Hezbollah by an Israeli airstrike alongside Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. His remains were repatriated to Iran, with his burial scheduled on 17 October in Isfahan following a series of funeral ceremonies in Tehran, Qom and Mashhad.

Oh....

Why did Iran HAVE to respond?

Point is, both countries have been engaging in back-and-forth strikes and provocations for decades.

[Soloist]

Oh....

Why did Iran HAVE to respond?

Point is, both countries have been engaging in back-and-forth strikes and provocations for decades.

I was pointing out it was provoked. Do you really think that location would matter to us?
Besides, both countries have been at each other since the revolution.

[Ken]

Oh....

Why did Iran HAVE to respond?

Point is, both countries have been engaging in back-and-forth strikes and provocations for decades.

I was pointing out it was provoked. Do you really think that location would matter to us?
Besides, both countries have been at each other since the revolution.

JohnH asked when was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel (comparable to what Israel did yesterday). And I provided the correct answer. About 9 months ago in October 2024. A strike against Hezbollah HQ in Lebanon when Hezbollah was engaged in war against Israel does not constitute a first strike against Iran.

[JohnH]

Oh....

Why did Iran HAVE to respond?

Point is, both countries have been engaging in back-and-forth strikes and provocations for decades.

I was pointing out it was provoked. Do you really think that location would matter to us?
Besides, both countries have been at each other since the revolution.

JohnH asked when was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel (comparable to what Israel did yesterday). And I provided the correct answer. About 9 months ago in October 2024. A strike against Hezbollah HQ in Lebanon when Hezbollah was engaged in war against Israel does not constitute a first strike against Iran.

It should be pointed out that was a token response (no casualties), and Iran also gave plenty of advance warning. They basically burned off a bunch of obsolete missiles.

I would disagree it was a first strike though. America would never tolerate air striking one of our top officials meeting with a foreign ally. Nor would we consider it a “first strike”.

[Nomad]

I was pointing out it was provoked. Do you really think that location would matter to us?
Besides, both countries have been at each other since the revolution.

JohnH asked when was the last time Iran engaged in a first strike against Israel (comparable to what Israel did yesterday). And I provided the correct answer. About 9 months ago in October 2024. A strike against Hezbollah HQ in Lebanon when Hezbollah was engaged in war against Israel does not constitute a first strike against Iran.

It should be pointed out that was a token response (no casualties), and Iran also gave plenty of advance warning. They basically burned off a bunch of obsolete missiles.

I would disagree it was a first strike though. America would never tolerate air striking one of our top officials meeting with a foreign ally. Nor would we consider it a “first strike”.

On the surface you are right. Irans typical M.O. is to run their attacks through proxy militias like Hamas, Hezbollah or the Houthis so they can remain unscathed of being blamed for a direct attack. All have been firing rockets frequently via the supply of Iran. We don't hear much about it because its so frequent and Iran tends to be in the shadows while the militias get the glory. Also, with the Iron dome its decreased the casualties which in turn means less newsworthy.