Hospitalizations, which have been climbing, also look to have reached a peak.
More importantly, death counts are faltering instead of climbing sharply as with prior waves of the virus. The big rise in hospitalizations during this latest surge without an similar rise in deaths points to better therapies as well as perhaps less severe cases.
This wave of the virus is looking quite different from all the previous waves in terms of the cases to deaths ratio. It's good to see.
mike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:07 pmMore importantly, death counts are faltering instead of climbing sharply as with prior waves of the virus. The big rise in hospitalizations during this latest surge without an similar rise in deaths points to better therapies as well as perhaps less severe cases.
Is that really true though? We aren't really experiencing one consistent pandemic wave in this country. We are experiencing many multiple regional waves that are cresting and receding in different regions of the country independently. What do the death rates look like when we zoom into the locations where the pandemic is currently cresting? This is the data that I see as of today for Florida and Louisiana, two of the current epicenters. It looks like both deaths and hospitalizations are escalating as fast as in previous waves.
Rather than faltering, Florida's deaths in the past several days are far-outstripping the 7-day average which means they are actually accelerating exponentially rather than faltering. Look at the grey bars labeled "deaths" not the dark line which is the running 7-day average. Florida deaths as of today are higher than at any previous point in the pandemic going all the way back to March 2020. And Louisiana's death numbers are fast approaching their two previous peaks.
Ken wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:26 pm
Is that really true though? We aren't really experiencing one consistent pandemic wave in this country. We are experiencing many multiple regional waves that are cresting and receding in different regions of the country independently. What do the death rates look like when we zoom into the locations where the pandemic is currently cresting? This is the data that I see as of today for Florida and Louisiana, two of the current epicenters. It looks like both deaths and hospitalizations are escalating as fast as in previous waves.
I'm obviously just looking at the overall numbers. Of course it has always been different for states/regions. For example the wild numbers in New York City were vastly different from other places in the country at the same time. Now it's Florida apparently, although their numbers in terms of deaths/million are still in the middle of the pack (24th in the ranking). Different states/regions always had their own spikes. But still I think it's useful to see the big picture.
According to the Worldometers charts the latest surge has peaked in FL and deaths are dropping off steeply. Compare these two charts:
Although this surge of covid has been the biggest yet for Florida, the deaths are nowhere near what happened during their previous surges. It's not over yet, but it has peaked and is dropping off quickly, so it seems unlikely to me that Florida will end up much higher in the rankings than what it is now.
Louisiana is showing a kinda similar trend. It has seen its biggest wave of cases the virus to date without making similar records in deaths numbers:
But, although its daily deaths have been higher relative to cases than Florida, the deaths this time around still did not reach to the levels they were during Louisiana's previous surges.
mike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 2:07 pmMore importantly, death counts are faltering instead of climbing sharply as with prior waves of the virus. The big rise in hospitalizations during this latest surge without an similar rise in deaths points to better therapies as well as perhaps less severe cases.
Is that really true though? We aren't really experiencing one consistent pandemic wave in this country. We are experiencing many multiple regional waves that are cresting and receding in different regions of the country independently. What do the death rates look like when we zoom into the locations where the pandemic is currently cresting? This is the data that I see as of today for Florida and Louisiana, two of the current epicenters. It looks like both deaths and hospitalizations are escalating as fast as in previous waves.
Rather than faltering, Florida's deaths in the past several days are far-outstripping the 7-day average which means they are actually accelerating exponentially rather than faltering. Look at the grey bars labeled "deaths" not the dark line which is the running 7-day average. Florida deaths as of today are higher than at any previous point in the pandemic going all the way back to March 2020. And Louisiana's death numbers are fast approaching their two previous peaks.
Like you wondered what's with the media's obsession with Sweden, I'm wondering what's with the media's obsession with Florida. I'm sure Florida's numbers are included in the graph Mike posted and it's great to see that this wave is not like the others as it relates to deaths. Sure, there are going to be regional hot spots with more deaths than others, but it was that way in all the waves that happened.
So, in my opinion, these charts show that even in states where we are still seeing surges/outbreaks, they are not nearly as bad as before in terms of deaths. Just as we would expect given the increase in vaccinations and natural immunity.
GaryK wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:55 pmLike you wondered what's with the media's obsession with Sweden, I'm wondering what's with the media's obsession with Florida. I'm sure Florida's numbers are included in the graph Mike posted and it's great to see that this wave is not like the others as it relates to deaths. Sure, there are going to be regional hot spots with more deaths than others, but it was that way in all the waves that happened.
I don't have any particular obsession with Florida. I'm just pointing out that we don't have one single pandemic wave in this country that is washing across the nation in a uniform fashion. We have lots of regional waves that are cresting with different intensities and on different timelines based on things like vaccination rates and pandemic measures taken.
Right now Florida is the epicenter along with the rest of the Gulf Coast. If it was Maine and New Hampshire then I'd be looking at their numbers. Oregon is also starting to look bad, although the darkest red areas are all lightly populated rural counties. And the current wave in Oregon is about a week behind Florida so I expect deaths in Oregon to start ticking up too.
I expect in another week or two we'll see another wave in South Dakota as the super-spreader event known as Sturgis 2021 starts getting reflected in the data.
Last edited by Ken on Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
In my state of Pennsylvania, the governor just announced that 80% of adults have received at least one dose of the COVID vax, with 63% fully vaxxed. Here's what our current wave of the virus looks like:
Now look at our daily deaths from COVID:
We have seen practically no increase in deaths from this recent "surge," and deaths have been under 10 daily for a month and a half. I think the vaccines have had a clear effect.
In contrast, Lousiana's rate is 46% of adults with at least one shot, and 38% fully vaccinated as of yesterday.
mike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 4:10 pm
In my state of Pennsylvania, the governor just announced that 80% of adults have received at least one dose of the COVID vax, with 63% fully vaxxed. Here's what our current wave of the virus looks like:
Oregon is a bit behind Pennsylvania in vaccination rates with 73% of adults having received at least one dose. And I think the vaccine distribution in OR is more patchy than in PA with much greater disparities between urban/suburban counties with high vaccination rates and rural counties with low vaccination rates. There are 8 counties in Oregon with vaccination rates between 32 and 39 percent, all of them in rural eastern and southern Oregon. So I expect the current wave to wash over Oregon in similar patchy fashion, hitting the low vaccination areas the hardest.
I pay particular attention to both OR and PA because half my family is from one state and half is from the other. Things look like they are about to get bad again in Oregon, especially for the unvaccinated. And I have a bunch of elderly relatives in OR in their 70s and 80s who are unvaccinated and frankly not taking much effort in terms of masking and social distancing to avoid catching Covid. I fear the delta wave is going to overtake them.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
GaryK wrote: ↑Mon Aug 16, 2021 3:55 pmLike you wondered what's with the media's obsession with Sweden, I'm wondering what's with the media's obsession with Florida. I'm sure Florida's numbers are included in the graph Mike posted and it's great to see that this wave is not like the others as it relates to deaths. Sure, there are going to be regional hot spots with more deaths than others, but it was that way in all the waves that happened.
I don't have any particular obsession with Florida. I'm just pointing out that we don't have one single pandemic wave in this country that is washing across the nation in a uniform fashion. We have lots of regional waves that are cresting with different intensities and on different timelines based on things like vaccination rates and pandemic measures taken.
Right now Florida is the epicenter along with the rest of the Gulf Coast. If it was Maine and New Hampshire then I'd be looking at their numbers. Oregon is also starting to look bad, although the darkest red areas are all lightly populated rural counties. And the current wave in Oregon is about a week behind Florida so I expect deaths in Oregon to start ticking up too.
I expect in another week or two we'll see another wave in South Dakota as the super-spreader event known as Sturgis 2021 starts getting reflected in the data.
From the beginning of the pandemic I don't remember having one single pandemic wave washing across the nation in a uniform fashion. In the first major wave, the Northeast seemed to be a pretty significant hot spot. Right now is appears the Gulf coast region is the hot spot. I'm just glad to see this wave cresting sooner than some of the others did and the deaths not nearly as significant as previous waves.
