Coronavirus Outbreak

[Bootstrap]

I have no issue with people preparing, I am a bit of a prepper myself. I also know that there is One who is greater than all our fears. I also think, we as followers of Jesus, should not be so fearful of loosing this world.

We are called to live in faith, not in fear. So much of what I see, even in this thread, is reactions in fear. Let us be intelligent and do what we can to minimize others suffering and chances of getting ill, but if we are fearful of some virus while not being strong in our faith of One who knows the hairs on my head, I may be reading the wrong materials.

Now is a time that the church of Jesus Christ can shine as the beacon on the hill. Those who are compassionate and caring for others. Those who share and care without regard for their own safety. Those who live by confidence of salvation, not be fear of disease.

Yes, I want the president and Congress to work and do what they can to help, but my faith is not in them. I know that they are a human construct and will not be perfect and get it all right. I know the One who will.

I agree with all of this.

I do think it is important to be prepared. Wash hands. Pray. Be ready to help our neighbors. Think about the ministries we pray for and give to.

[appleman2006]

Posting this again because some of you probably missed it in this fast moving thread.

43 pages in and I do not think I have commented yet. Perhaps I am sick?

Most of you know I am not a big fan of our political leaders here in Canada on the best of days right now. However on this one I have been very slow to criticize. This is such a fast moving thing it is really hard to be critical of them. I have no idea what I would be advising if I were in their shoes. And so instead I am choosing to pray.

My theory right now is that the biggest threat is actually the long term results of the potential economic collapse. The disease will kill many however the side effects could actually kill many more indirectly. People have become so accustomed to thinking that we as humans are in control of everything that I expect things will not have to get to bad until they will just really get ugly and it will more or less become each man for himself. I always suspected that our economy was only one disaster away from collapse. I am hoping this is not the big one.

Here is a list of things I am praying for.
1. That my predictions above will turn out to be very wrong.
2. That our political leaders will be given the wisdom and courage to act quickly and responsibly when needed.
3. That this will cause people to take a deep look at what is really important in life and that they will be drawn to the only one who really can help.
4. that the people of God will be shining lights and through calmness, generosity, and love show people a better way.

May God help us all.

[Josh]

What you folks are saying does not align with what’s happening in Iran and Italy. Without advanced medical care, the mortality rate goes way up.

If all of us get this at once, the 20% of us who need medical care won’t be able to get it, and we’ll die. Are you ready for a world where 1 out of 5 of us is gone?

I am not being alarmist. This is what Trump is saying, this is what Democratic politicians are saying, the WHO, the CDC. I’m also not saying to panic, but it is inappropriate to compare this to seasonal flu.

[Dan Z]

Oops...accidentally posted this in the wrong thread. I'll repost it here where it belongs:

The numbers are driving the world's response here.

The NY Times has gotten copies of the CDC projections for this event from a few weeks ago, where they estimate a range of scenarios for the US that show that between 2.1 million and 214 million Americans will be infected. This means between 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations, and 200,000 - 1.7 million deaths. These scenarios assume a 2-3 person infection rate, a 3-12% hospitalization rate, and a .25 - 1% death rate. A vaccine wont be available until 2021.

Where this gets concerning is that there are less than 1 million hospital beds in the country, and less than 100K critical care beds with about 20,000 respirators. If the US can keep this closer to the best case scenario, or slow down the progress to spread out the timeline, the healthcare system might keep up. But, if we end up closer to worst case scenario, or the disease spikes too quickly, the system will be overwhelmed.

The CDC admits there are still many unknowns that could have up or down sides to these numbers, and many experrts are critical of the US response thus far, particularly related to disease testing.

In other words, this is not a media/political-driven panic, or government hysteria as some people claim, but the prudent actions of experts crunching the potential numbers. Panic and hoarding will do no good, and we can take heart that people are typically resourceful in crisis, but based on the numbers this has to be taken seriously.

[Judas Maccabeus]

I think the school closures are going to be a mistake. How many nurses and other medical professionals, for example, have small children and are going to be forced to stay home and care for them during the day now that schools and preschools everywhere are closing? A LOT of them.

Schools could actually be run as mini-quarantine sites with no mixing of students or teachers across classes or different parts of the school. That would greatly restrict exposure spread if a student did show up infected. You would maybe have 24 students possibly exposed rather than 500. But maybe that's no longer good enough. Closing schools isn't going to put all children into isolation. It will just free them from supervision in many cases.

Maryland just announced friday will be the last day for school for awhile. Governor said that childcare provision will be made for those who are "essential." This means fire police and healthcare, let's see how this goes. In spite of this, I am expecting many of the gals at our clinics to play the "mommy" card, and the rest of us will be working doubles.

Had a patient come in today with a mask. I had to tell her it was quite useless, as she was wearing it upside down.

Seriously, the hospitals are pitching the isolation tents behind their ERs. Someone expects this to be really bad. No one actually knows how much of this is out there, largely due to the total incompetence and denial of the current administration.

J.M.

We are doing this at some of our ERs, mostly to triage at this point. ERs are already maxed out just about everywhere. Seen as the safety net many people come who don't need to. Just based on volume we will likely see a lot more alternate care sites popping up. We do them about every year for Flu, so this will just be a bit bigger. The worried well and use of protective equipment is also being challenged because many countries who make it aren't exporting it.

No need to panic, better to stay home and wash your hands. Robert is right, most people will survive. But, that doesn't mean it shouldn't make us consider doing what we can to mitigate the effects now that it's here. Biggest thing I believe is good personal hygiene and reasonable supply use. The 2nd one is the most difficult.

This is not just the flu, and likely a decent number of us will get it. The system is woefully unprepared. Just take a gander at Italy, rationing can be a really bad thing.

J.M.

[Robert]

Oops...accidentally posted this in the wrong thread. I'll repost it here where it belongs:

The numbers are driving the world's response here.

The NY Times has gotten copies of the CDC projections for this event from a few weeks ago, where they estimate a range of scenarios for the US that show that between 2.1 million and 214 million Americans will be infected. This means between 2.4 million to 21 million hospitalizations, and 200,000 - 1.7 million deaths. These scenarios assume a 2-3 person infection rate, a 3-12% hospitalization rate, and a .25 - 1% death rate. A vaccine wont be available until 2021.

Where this gets concerning is that there are less than 1 million hospital beds in the country, and less than 100K critical care beds with about 20,000 respirators. If the US can keep this closer to the best case scenario, or slow down the progress to spread out the timeline, the healthcare system might keep up. But, if we end up closer to worst case scenario, or the disease spikes too quickly, the system will be overwhelmed.

The CDC admits there are still many unknowns that could have up or down sides to these numbers, and many experrts are critical of the US response thus far, particularly related to disease testing.

In other words, this is not a media/political-driven panic, or government hysteria as some people claim, but the prudent actions of experts crunching the potential numbers. Panic and hoarding will do no good, and we can take heart that people are typically resourceful in crisis, but based on the numbers this has to be taken seriously.

Coronavirus is a respiratory infection. It will affect those with compromised respiratory systems more. Many in Wuhan were heavy smokers. This can skew the numbers. This is also another reason why the % of deaths is hard to lock down. As summer comes, respiratory infections can lessen, since more people get active and ... breathe better. Those who have healthy lungs will be less susceptible to it. Those who have smoked and worked in places that compromise their respiratory system will be more susceptible. As with every viral infection, it will not hit everyone the same. Not everyone will need to be hospitalized. Some will get a light case and get over it.

Again, staying on top of it is good. Being fearful is not what we are called to do as followers of Jesus.

[Judas Maccabeus]

What you folks are saying does not align with what’s happening in Iran and Italy. Without advanced medical care, the mortality rate goes way up.

If all of us get this at once, the 20% of us who need medical care won’t be able to get it, and we’ll die. Are you ready for a world where 1 out of 5 of us is gone?

I am not being alarmist. This is what Trump is saying, this is what Democratic politicians are saying, the WHO, the CDC. I’m also not saying to panic, but it is inappropriate to compare this to seasonal flu.

The reason for this is that we are all immunologically naive to this virus. For seasonal flu, most of us have at least some antibodies that more or less will fight it. Here, we have none. Initial exposure to relatively benign European diseases killed far more native Americans than bullets.

Preparation for this should have begun months ago, when some of our politicians were calling it a “hoax” and being dismissive about the need to prepare. You can’t build capacity overnight, and ramping up capacity gets harder and harder when you actually have the situation unfolding in your midst. Our healthcare infrastructure has actually become less resilient as the corporate side has taken over and sought to maximize profit.

Don’t get me started on testing. The main teaching hospitals here have testing ready to go, and are only waiting for the ok.

Just take a look at Italy. Major rationing going on there.

J.M.

[Josh]

JM,

Fully agreed except I don’t agree testing is “ready to go”. Every American will consider it their God-given right to get tested and overwhelm our already strained healthcare infrastructure.

A practical, new test that can be administered at a public-health level for a novel virus to people before they have symptoms is a technological miracle. Doing it to 300 million people will be logistics on the level of the Manhattan project, and right now, Americans have decided to overwhelm our toilet-paper production. Imagine what happens when 10% of the population rolls into your clinic demanding to be “tested”?

(The same people you can’t get to go to an annual physical and who won’t even test their a1c when they’re supposed to)

[Robert]

For those who need this.

https://www.askaprepper.com/how-to-make ... -pandemic/





I got to make one of these and wear it to church Sunday. I don't drink sodas, so will have to consider the investment.

[Bootstrap]

What you folks are saying does not align with what’s happening in Iran and Italy. Without advanced medical care, the mortality rate goes way up.

If all of us get this at once, the 20% of us who need medical care won’t be able to get it, and we’ll die. Are you ready for a world where 1 out of 5 of us is gone?

I am not being alarmist. This is what Trump is saying, this is what Democratic politicians are saying, the WHO, the CDC. I’m also not saying to panic, but it is inappropriate to compare this to seasonal flu.

I agree with what you are saying, but I also agree with what Robert is saying.

We do not know how serious the risk is, but it has been a big deal in Iran, Italy, and China. With this kind of pandemic, you really won't know until it's over, a year from now. Hospitals and the government need to plan for the worst - knowing that it might turn out to have been an overreaction. Most of what we need to do is wash our hands, avoid touching surfaces someone else may have sneezed on, stay out of crowds and off of public transportation, etc. And we especially need to be careful about giving it to others. If you have symptoms like COVID-19, don't go hugging everyone in a nursing home.

We don't know how bad this is yet. When we talk about it being like the flu .. well, like the 1918 flu? like last year's flu? Remember that the flu has caused very serious pandemics in the past. It is certainly bad enough to take seriously. That is precisely why we used to have a pandemic response center. They played simulation games to see how various scenarios pan out and think of the best ways to respond to them. I hope we will go back to having one. After all, many more people die of the flu every year than died in 9/11. Many more Americans die of the flu every year than in our forever wars. If preserving American lives is something government should do, this matters.

But fear doesn't help. You can't act out of fear, you can only act out of a plan. Get informed, do what is helpful, trust the medical experts to guide us through this. Don't bother listening to politicians, listen to the medical experts. And not just to the medical experts, we need to talk about how to respond in our churches once we understand what they are saying.

And ultimately, we have to put ourselves in God's hands. That is not an excuse for being careless, but fear is useful only when it inspires us to go find out what the medical experts are telling us to do or when it reminds us to put ourselves in God's hands and ask where we can serve others.

Does that make sense?