Coronavirus Outbreak

[MichaelPA]

Except way more people get the flu, or diseases like RSV, which seems to have hit 100% this year for ages 0 - 2.

Well, coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, so more people should get it eventually.

Are you sure about that? Flu outbreaks are pretty bad and have an R0 that ranges from 2 to 3. They can afflict a large proportion of the population. The coronavirus R0 is not well known but is believed to be around 2.2.

I might be wrong, but I read an article that said the R0 of the flu is 1.3 and the R0 of the coronavirus is between 2 and 3.

[Josh]

Well, coronavirus is more contagious than the flu, so more people should get it eventually.

Are you sure about that? Flu outbreaks are pretty bad and have an R0 that ranges from 2 to 3. They can afflict a large proportion of the population. The coronavirus R0 is not well known but is believed to be around 2.2.

I might be wrong, but I read an article that said the R0 of the flu is 1.3 and the R0 of the coronavirus is between 2 and 3.

Flu varies each season. When there's a flu outbreak, the R0 is a bit higher, in the 2 to 3 range. When it's less than that, that strain will have a hard time causing an outbreak.

The flu vaccine is designed to try to target the flus that will have a higher R0, since that's the one we're more likely to be inoculated against.

(Have y'all gotten your flu shot yet?)

[Bootstrap]

There is a 1.5% you will die of Coronavirus. There is a 1% chance you will die from a vehicle fatality. Is it really that serious? If so, stop driving too.

Fatality rate reported anywhere from 1 to 3.4% fatality if infected. A bit different than your chances of dying everytime you get behind the wheel
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

You don't know how Robert drives.

[Bootstrap]

Why is the American stock market so nervous?

• The stock market sees what Coronavirus did to the Chinese economy and the Italian economy
• The stock market sees impacts on any venue that involves large crowds, transportation together with others, etc.
• The American stock market is following trends in other stock markets internationally
• The Saudi and Russian moves on oil are also making the stock market nervous
• The stock markets know how Robert drives

Stock markets recovered substantially today, but it's not at all surprising that the stock market is nervous or that it lost value. Not just in America. The stock markets are not mostly about American politics or the political messaging of our leaders.

Incidentally, is it me, or are there some days where some people say the markets have all wisdom and other days where the same people suggest the markets are idiotic? I'm guessing the truth lies somewhere in-between. But stock traders are human beings and are more psychological than logical sometimes.

[Josh]

Incidentally, is it me, or are there some days where some people say the markets have all wisdom and other days where the same people suggest the markets are idiotic? I'm guessing the truth lies somewhere in-between. But stock traders are human beings and are more psychological than logical sometimes.

These days, the stock market is mostly robots which manage investment in index funds. I'm not sure if they have emotions or not. I definitely have my doubts about how much wisdom highly advanced computer programs have to offer, though.

[Ken]

So how are we doing so far compared to other countries? Testing for the coronavirus in this country has been almost a farce so far: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/w ... story.html

A week later, the United States declared a public health emergency, a process designed to speed the development of diagnostic tests and other medical products. The CDC received the first “emergency use authorization” to make and distribute its test to the backbone of the public health system in the United States — mostly state labs.

But the emergency policy, intended to keep quality high, also discouraged hospital labs from quickly developing in-house tests. They would need specific approval from the FDA to do so.

“Since CDC and FDA haven’t authorized public health or hospital labs to run the tests, right now #CDC is the only place that can. So, screening has to be rationed,” Gottlieb tweeted on Feb. 2.

The CDC manufactured kits, and on Feb. 6 and 7, 90 test kits were shipped to the public health labs. Some labs began to have trouble with the test. On Feb. 12, the CDC announced the test was providing inconclusive results in some laboratories. The problem was in one of the three components of the test.

How do other countries manage to test thousands of people, then? What about using the test kits they use? The answer:

Some critics have questioned why the CDC didn’t switch to tests being used by other countries as soon as the problems arose, but the official said it would have taken longer to apply for a new authorization from the FDA and validate and manufacture a new test than it would to fix a test they knew worked in their own lab.

So it goes. Currently the US testing is too narrow to allow us to tell much anything about the possible spread of coronavirus in different areas. This means that we have no idea how correct the numbers of those infected might be. And then there is this bit:

On Feb. 13, HHS Secretary Alex Azar testified before Congress that a limited five-city pilot would begin to add coronavirus to the usual flu surveillance system to see whether “there is broader spread than we have been able to detect so far.” But the plan was delayed because coronavirus tests weren’t available.

Wider testing for the virus is required to properly plan the need for hospital facilities and medical staff and for deciding when stronger quarantine policies might be in order. So far the US testing has been totally inadequate for these purposes. To put it into perspective:

As of Sunday, 1,707 Americans had been tested for the novel coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. South Korea, by contrast, has tested more than 189,000 people. The two countries announced their first coronavirus cases on the same day.

[violet]

Ken, do you have any thoughts on the closing of the NW school district? A friend told me the largest one plans to remain open and there is controversy surrounding this decision.

[Ken]

Ken, do you have any thoughts on the closing of the NW school district? A friend told me the largest one plans to remain open and there is controversy surrounding this decision.

From what I have read, the best practices seem to be to keep the schools open as much as possible, but screen out kids who might be sick. Apparently kids are even less affected by this than the common flu. So kids themselves are really at risk of anything more than a runny nose and sore throat. Closing schools means a large percentage of parents need to stay home, or find alternative child care, which kind of defeats the purpose of closing schools. You can actually have more spreading of virus if all the kids are home, especially home unattended or with grandparents instead of at school. It can be counterproductive.

I'd be in favor of keeping schools open but just escalating precautions at schools. No assemblies and out of school events like games. Cancel recess. Maybe have boxed lunches delivered to the classrooms rather than have 500 kids in the cafeteria. Run the schools on semi-lockdown mode, bathroom monitors making sure they all wash properly, make sure the kids are super sanitary. Do lots of cleaning of public areas nightly. That sort of thing.

Teachers and administrators can do this pretty easily and quickly if they have proper guidance and resources.

[RZehr]

Bathroom monitor seems like a simple and good idea that would actually be impactful.

[Robert]

You don't know how Robert drives.

I just put down 1000 miles. 500 in a 26' truck towing a van. So I guess I do alright.

The death rate for covid-19 is 2% of those diagnosed. This means it is not 2% of the population. It is 2% of those sick enough to get a diagnosis. So many more have it, figure they have a cold, and get over it and never know it.

Influenza spreads about as much as covid-19. Many people exposed to influenza do not get sick either.