Coronavirus Outbreak

[Wade]

That's exactly the same as saying "if everyone would have been wearing masks we would be out of it by now".
The reality does not support that presumption.

No, I don't think so at all. Masks aren't a fix - but they are one part of limiting spread (and thus the number of deaths). Frankly, I think distancing is more important, because you cant catch a disease if you aren't in proximity to it. Ultimately, it will be vaccination that puts and end to this disease. The question is, how many will become infected (and die) before vaccines are widely distributed. At the macro-level, it's a numbers game.

Dan, there have been a lot of numbers, estimates, projections, if this, if that, but when the projection and estimate numbers don't actually happen, is that still "science"?
I think any benefit that masks may have diminishes with time spent in situations where infection is present, so that dependence on masking in many situations may actually begin to increase infections.
And no, that's not science either, but I have spent a lot of time trying to discern what is ACTUALLY happening, and it is often at odds with the expectations of the "experts". How many times have they changed their mind about the "science"?

Our work place has posted for some time now on pieces of paper plus on TV screens on site that masks do NOT work after 15 minutes of close contact. It has a health Canada stamp on the page - maybe people are not seeing this in the USA?

[Judas Maccabeus]

The question is where would the cases and deaths be if nothing had been done? The simple epidemiological math (fatality rate X herd immunity number) says that potentially one to two million Americans could have died if the disease was allowed to run its course unobstructed.

That's exactly the same as saying "if everyone would have been wearing masks we would be out of it by now".
The reality does not support that presumption.
Locally the three large hospitals all have outbreaks, both staff and patients, one LTC has 100 infections now, 46 staff and 54 residents, all DESPITE "best practices".

Today's update on the LTC, now 50 staff and 56 residents.

Masks are not a total solution , they only slow it down. We have known this from the start, it improves your chances. Some sort of respirator does better. Hopefully, slow it down enough that the vaccine beats many of us getting it, slow it down enough that our hospitals don't get overwhelmed and nearly collapse, like they almost did in March/April. There has got to be something about LTC facilities that we have not figured out yet, in my (now former) outpatient setting, I am sure I treated a number of unrecognized Covid patients, yet did not get it. My wife had done testing one to two days a week since this thing began, she did not get it, (She gets the first vaccine shot tomorrow!) so the PPE must do SOMETHING.

Hoping they figure it out, or get all of those LTC residents vaccinated, and soon.

J.M.

[Judas Maccabeus]

No, I don't think so at all. Masks aren't a fix - but they are one part of limiting spread (and thus the number of deaths). Frankly, I think distancing is more important, because you cant catch a disease if you aren't in proximity to it. Ultimately, it will be vaccination that puts and end to this disease. The question is, how many will become infected (and die) before vaccines are widely distributed. At the macro-level, it's a numbers game.

Dan, there have been a lot of numbers, estimates, projections, if this, if that, but when the projection and estimate numbers don't actually happen, is that still "science"?
I think any benefit that masks may have diminishes with time spent in situations where infection is present, so that dependence on masking in many situations may actually begin to increase infections.
And no, that's not science either, but I have spent a lot of time trying to discern what is ACTUALLY happening, and it is often at odds with the expectations of the "experts". How many times have they changed their mind about the "science"?

Our work place has posted for some time now on pieces of paper plus on TV screens on site that masks do NOT work after 15 minutes of close contact. It has a health Canada stamp on the page - maybe people are not seeing this in the USA?

If you are in close contact, you should not be using a mask, period. You should be using some sort of respirator like an N-95. A mask only prevents you from spraying all of your mist on other people, although it may give some degree of protection. That degree is debatable

In effect, Health Canada is giving good advice, although I would not word it that way.

J.M.

[silentreader]

Dan, there have been a lot of numbers, estimates, projections, if this, if that, but when the projection and estimate numbers don't actually happen, is that still "science"?
I think any benefit that masks may have diminishes with time spent in situations where infection is present, so that dependence on masking in many situations may actually begin to increase infections.
And no, that's not science either, but I have spent a lot of time trying to discern what is ACTUALLY happening, and it is often at odds with the expectations of the "experts". How many times have they changed their mind about the "science"?

Our work place has posted for some time now on pieces of paper plus on TV screens on site that masks do NOT work after 15 minutes of close contact. It has a health Canada stamp on the page - maybe people are not seeing this in the USA?

If you are in close contact, you should not be using a mask, period. You should be using some sort of respirator like an N-95. A mask only prevents you from spraying all of your mist on other people, although it may give some degree of protection. That degree is debatable

In effect, Health Canada is giving good advice, although I would not word it that way.

J.M.

The best study I have seen, dealing with non-medical masks and the actual aerosol, not with droplets or similar particulates, suggested that a non-medical mask prevented about 30% of exhaled aerosols from reaching the exterior and prevented about 5% of aerosol particles from being inhaled through the mask.
Those numbers were dependent on numerous variables. They also found that depending on numerous variables, the non-surgical masks lost increasing degree of efficacy in increasing durations of being in infectious settings.
I do not remember them giving an actual time frame, but the thrust was the same, DO NOT DEPEND ON NON-MEDICAL MASKS TO SAFEGUARD YOU IF YOU ARE IN CONTACT WITH ACTUALLY INFECTED PERSONS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

[silentreader]

Dan, there have been a lot of numbers, estimates, projections, if this, if that, but when the projection and estimate numbers don't actually happen, is that still "science"?
I think any benefit that masks may have diminishes with time spent in situations where infection is present, so that dependence on masking in many situations may actually begin to increase infections.
And no, that's not science either, but I have spent a lot of time trying to discern what is ACTUALLY happening, and it is often at odds with the expectations of the "experts". How many times have they changed their mind about the "science"?

Our work place has posted for some time now on pieces of paper plus on TV screens on site that masks do NOT work after 15 minutes of close contact. It has a health Canada stamp on the page - maybe people are not seeing this in the USA?

If you are in close contact, you should not be using a mask, period. You should be using some sort of respirator like an N-95. A mask only prevents you from spraying all of your mist on other people, although it may give some degree of protection. That degree is debatable

In effect, Health Canada is giving good advice, although I would not word it that way.

J.M.

I'm not real familiar with respirators although I did have occasions to wear one many years ago.
The question I have, JM, if an infected person is wearing a respirator, will it prevent that person from exhaling the virus into the atmosphere? I have read that they will not, but I don't know. It would help to explain hospital outbreaks, especially among staff.

[Judas Maccabeus]

Our work place has posted for some time now on pieces of paper plus on TV screens on site that masks do NOT work after 15 minutes of close contact. It has a health Canada stamp on the page - maybe people are not seeing this in the USA?

If you are in close contact, you should not be using a mask, period. You should be using some sort of respirator like an N-95. A mask only prevents you from spraying all of your mist on other people, although it may give some degree of protection. That degree is debatable

In effect, Health Canada is giving good advice, although I would not word it that way.

J.M.

I'm not real familiar with respirators although I did have occasions to wear one many years ago.
The question I have, JM, if an infected person is wearing a respirator, will it prevent that person from exhaling the virus into the atmosphere? I have read that they will not, but I don't know. It would help to explain hospital outbreaks, especially among staff.

The respirators are for the staff, not the patients. They have to be fitted tested, and worn properly. A patient already SOB will not be able to wear one, nor can they be trusted to keep them on properly. I have never heard of anyone giving one to a patient. They are STILL in short supply.

J.M.

[silentreader]

If you are in close contact, you should not be using a mask, period. You should be using some sort of respirator like an N-95. A mask only prevents you from spraying all of your mist on other people, although it may give some degree of protection. That degree is debatable

In effect, Health Canada is giving good advice, although I would not word it that way.

J.M.

I'm not real familiar with respirators although I did have occasions to wear one many years ago.
The question I have, JM, if an infected person is wearing a respirator, will it prevent that person from exhaling the virus into the atmosphere? I have read that they will not, but I don't know. It would help to explain hospital outbreaks, especially among staff.

The respirators are for the staff, not the patients. They have to be fitted tested, and worn properly. A patient already SOB will not be able to wear one, nor can they be trusted to keep them on properly. I have never heard of anyone giving one to a patient. They are STILL in short supply.

J.M.

That was not my question.
I should have clarified. Will the respirator worn by an infected staff member prevent that staff member from passing the virus on to someone else?

[Ernie]

That was not my question.
I should have clarified. Will the respirator worn by an infected staff member prevent that staff member from passing the virus on to someone else?

It is my understanding that the N95's with a one way "exhaling valve" will release the virus into the air and to others. These are banned on some airlines.

N95's without the valve block droplets going both ways. However without the valve, some droplets will still likely exit the mask when the person exhales, unless it is a very good fit.

[silentreader]

That was not my question.
I should have clarified. Will the respirator worn by an infected staff member prevent that staff member from passing the virus on to someone else?

It is my understanding that the N95's with a one way "exhaling valve" will release the virus into the air and to others. These are banned on some airlines.

N95's without the valve block droplets going both ways. However without the valve, some droplets will still likely exit the mask when the person exhales, unless it is a very good fit.

Thanks, that was my understanding as well.
It is troubling to me how much spread there is among health-care workers and in supposedly safe hospital environments among staff when we are in a lock-down.

[Dan Z]

The AP is reporting that the the total number of deaths in the US this year will set a record, topping 3 million for the first time, up by at least 400,000, which will represents a 15% increase over last year, perhaps higher. This will be the highest single year death rate increase since 1918 (even higher than the WWII years). In addition, life expectancy in the US is expected to drop by as much as 3 full years this year. The increase is primarily attributed to COVID-related deaths, although drug overdoses are also up significantly, and suicides may be up as well (many indirectly related to COVID).