I also noticed the following chart for the first time, which shows deaths/million over time.
By most metrics this third wave of the virus has been the worst yet, but it is interesting that in terms of deaths/million, the highest individual state numbers happened in the spring. The reason that the total daily deaths are worse in the third wave is that more states are seeing elevated numbers at the same time.
The high numbers in the spring came from NY, NJ, and CT.
From my colleagues who still live in CA: they mention the very large homeless population as contributing to the situation, particularly in southern CA. Poor health and poor sanitation are endemic in that group. Their poor health is exasperated during cooler weather which in turn spreads pathogens quickly among those who are in proximity.
A few more days of reports like the last several days and we may see an actual downturn. However reporting will no doubt be off kilter the next few weeks due to the holidays.
A few more days of reports like the last several days and we may see an actual downturn. However reporting will no doubt be off kilter the next few weeks due to the holidays.
And what happens after that may depend a great deal on what people choose to do during the holidays. I worry that there is enough Covid fatigue and still enough Covid denialism that we could see another spike. This last spike was likely related to Thanksgiving.
A few more days of reports like the last several days and we may see an actual downturn. However reporting will no doubt be off kilter the next few weeks due to the holidays.
And what happens after that may depend a great deal on what people choose to do during the holidays. I worry that there is enough Covid fatigue and still enough Covid denialism that we could see another spike. This last spike was likely related to Thanksgiving.
Things are easing here in Minnesota - back to October case levels. I'm convinced it is in part because of an active yet well-reasoned mitigation approach on the part of governor Walz, who is taking a lot of heat for it from the right...but is principled enough to do the right thing. Part of it is probably the wavy nature of the disease as well - pattern-wise. In any case, this state has outperformed all of its neighbors thus far in case rates.
Dan Z wrote:Things are easing here in Minnesota - back to October case levels. I'm convinced it is in part because of an active yet well-reasoned mitigation approach on the part of governor Walz, who is taking a lot of heat for it from the right...but is principled enough to do the right thing. This state has outperformed all of its neighbors thus far in case rates.
California is puzzling. From what I hear they have had strict mitigation measures since the beginning, and they were doing better than many other states until recently.
If the COVID-19 trends are all about human behavior as we have been led to believe, and this rise can be credited to people not following health mandates, then the people of California must be disregarding the restrictions in a big way the last while. Or maybe there are other factors.
