Coronavirus Outbreak

[mike]

Single day records today in hospitalizations and deaths.

[Dan Z]

Single day records today in hospitalizations and deaths.

Yuck.

I know three rather close people who have died as a result of COVID in just the past month. All older men (two in their 70s, one in his 90s), all with some previous health issues (nothing extraordinary), and all living full and active lives until they got ill.

There is this idea out there that "people are not dying from COVID but with COVID." In other words, because they have "comorbidities" they were pretty much going to die anyway - COVID may have just fast-forwarded their demise by a bit. The stereotype is the dying nursing home resident who didn't have long to live anyway - and that may be true for some.

But the loss of these three acquaintances, full of life, got me thinking about this a bit more...they all had comorbidities (e.g. obesity, high blood pressure, heart disease, asthma, etc.). Well, it turns out that more than 40% of American adults (including many of us here), and more than 80% of adults above 80 years of age also have comorbidities, and most of these folks still enjoy active and productive lives. Studies estimate that those who die of COVID are dying an average of 3-9 years ahead of when they'd be expected to die statistically. Yes, on the one hand we're all going to die, but its important to recognize that this disease is not just killing the mostly-dead, it is robbing many folks of the potential of year's of joy filled and meaningful life.

[mike]

According to worldometers, the total of US covid deaths is now at

298,172.

In one or two days, with a 7-day average daily death rate of 2,400, we will hit that unbelievable 300,000 mark.

[joshuabgood]

Single day records today in hospitalizations and deaths.

Yuck.

I know three rather close people who have died as a result of COVID in just the past month. All older men (two in their 70s, one in his 90s), all with some previous health issues (nothing extraordinary), and all living full and active lives until they got ill.

There is this idea out there that "people are not dying from COVID but with COVID." In other words, because they have "comorbidities" they were pretty much going to die anyway - COVID may have just fast-forwarded their demise by a bit. The stereotype is the dying nursing home resident who didn't have long to live anyway - and that may be true for some.

But the loss of these three acquaintances, full of life, got me thinking about this a bit more...they all had comorbidities (e.g. obesity, high blood pressure, heart disease, asthma, etc.). Well, it turns out that more than 40% of American adults (including many of us here), and more than 80% of adults above 80 years of age also have comorbidities, and most of these folks still enjoy active and productive lives. Studies estimate that those who die of COVID are dying an average of 3-9 years ahead of when they'd be expected to die statistically. Yes, on the one hand we're all going to die, but its important to recognize that this disease is not just killing the mostly-dead, it is robbing many folks of the potential of year's of joy filled and meaningful life.

People will be missing weddings, births, graduations, adoptions, baptisms, etc etc...

[Grace]

Yuck.

I know three rather close people who have died as a result of COVID in just the past month. All older men (two in their 70s, one in his 90s), all with some previous health issues (nothing extraordinary), and all living full and active lives until they got ill.

There is this idea out there that "people are not dying from COVID but with COVID." In other words, because they have "comorbidities" they were pretty much going to die anyway - COVID may have just fast-forwarded their demise by a bit. The stereotype is the dying nursing home resident who didn't have long to live anyway - and that may be true for some.

But the loss of these three acquaintances, full of life, got me thinking about this a bit more...they all had comorbidities (e.g. obesity, high blood pressure, heart disease, asthma, etc.). Well, it turns out that more than 40% of American adults (including many of us here), and more than 80% of adults above 80 years of age also have comorbidities, and most of these folks still enjoy active and productive lives. Studies estimate that those who die of COVID are dying an average of 3-9 years ahead of when they'd be expected to die statistically. Yes, on the one hand we're all going to die, but its important to recognize that this disease is not just killing the mostly-dead, it is robbing many folks of the potential of year's of joy filled and meaningful life.

I agree. And it no longer is just the older people. Just recently I heard of two separate incidents, young fathers who had extended hospital stays from Covid. They came home from the hospital with oxygen and won't be able to work for weeks.

[Robert]

According to worldometers, the total of US covid deaths is now at

298,172.

In one or two days, with a 7-day average daily death rate of 2,400, we will hit that unbelievable 300,000 mark.

I believe that HCQ would have blunted this immensely.

Making people stay home until they are so sick they have to be hospitalized is not a good way to address this. Early stage treatment is critical.

[mike]

According to the CDC, in the 12 month period ending January 2020, there were 2,861,000 deaths in the United States.



300,000 Covid deaths in about 9 months extrapolates to 400,000 deaths per year.

Let's assume there were no COVID deaths during the 12 month period ending January 2020, that that is a fair estimate for the amount of deaths for a subsequent 12-month period, and that there will be 400,000 additional deaths in the 12-month period covering the covid outbreak for a total of 3,261,000 deaths.

400,000 deaths/3,261,000 = 12.3

This would mean that COVID-19 has caused a 12.3% increase in the number of deaths in the United States.

In this estimate:

Normal year deaths: 3,261,000
Covid year deaths: 3,661,000

From watching the CDC excess deaths charts in the past year, I think that a 12-13% excess death rate sounds like a reasonable number to expect. However, the big variable is just how bad the current wave of the virus will be.

[mike]

The current US population is about 331,000,000. 400,000 deaths/year due to Covid would mean that 1/10 of 1% of the US population will have died in a year due to the virus.

Also, apparently about 9/10 of 1% of the American population dies each year.

[Dan Z]

Interesting stats Mike. Here's an interesting regional chart - everyone is spiking at once this time:

[mike]

Governor Tom Wolf of PA just announced a 3-week period with the following restrictions:

In-Person Dining and Alcohol Sales
• All in-person indoor dining at businesses in the retail food services industry, including, but not limited to, bars, restaurants, breweries, wineries, distilleries, social clubs, and private catered events is prohibited.
• Outdoor dining, take-out food service, and take-out alcohol sales are permitted and may continue, subject to any limitations or restrictions imposed by Pennsylvania law, or this or any other Order issued by the Sec. of Health or by the governor.
Indoor Gatherings and Events
• Indoor gatherings and events of more than 10 persons are prohibited.
• Churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, and other places of congregate worship are specifically excluded from the limitations set forth above during religious services, these institutions are strongly encouraged to find alternative methods for worship, as in person gatherings pose a significant risk to participants at this time. While this an incredibly difficult recommendation to make, particularly at this time of year, faith leaders must carefully weigh the health risks to their congregants given the immense amount of community spread of COVID-19.
Outdoor Gatherings and Events
• Outdoor gatherings and events of more than 50 persons are prohibited.
Capacity Limits for Businesses
• All in-person businesses serving the public may only operate at up to 50% of the maximum capacity stated on the applicable certificate of occupancy, except as limited by existing orders to a smaller capacity limit.
Gyms and Fitness Facilities
• Indoor operations at gyms and fitness facilities are prohibited.
• Outdoor facilities and outdoor classes can continue, but all participants must wear face coverings in accordance with the Sec. of Health’s Updated Order Requiring Universal Face Coverings, including any subsequent amendments, and practice physical distancing requirements.
Entertainment Industry
• All in-person businesses in the entertainment industry serving the public within a building or indoor defined area, including, but not limited to, theaters, concert venues, museums, movie theaters, arcades, casinos, bowling alleys, private clubs, and all other similar entertainment, recreational or social facilities, are prohibited from operation.
In-Person Extracurricular School Activities
• Voluntary activities sponsored or approved by a school entity’s governing body or administration are suspended, but these extracurricular activities may be held virtually. This includes, but is not limited to, attendance at or participation in activities such musical ensembles, school plays, student council, clubs, and school dances.
K-12 School Sports and Youth Sports
• All sports at K-12 public schools, nonpublic schools, private schools and club, travel, recreational, intermural, and intramural sports are paused.
Professional and Collegiate Sports
• Professional or collegiate sports activities may continue in accordance with guidance from the CDC and the Department of Health.
• Spectators may not attend such sports activities in person.