RZehr wrote:I don’t believe that number. How can it be accurately calculated if, as I believe, many people are getting the virus but not getting tested?
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is a concrete number- how many confirmed deaths divided by how many confirmed cases. Early on it was higher, but since June in the US it has settled in at about 1.6%.
The less known number is the Incident Fatality Rate (IFR) - total (known & unknown) cases divided by total (known & unknown) deaths. Like Ken said, both cases and deaths are likely underestimated. Best estimates for IFR in the US from the CDC is .65%. I’ve seen other recent scientific studies as high 1.15% and as low as .24%.
Depending on what you mean. To some it might be about 6% concrete. Not saying it is, but something to consider when looking at the broader picture.
From the CDC:(https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... /index.htm)
Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.
RZehr wrote:I understand percentages. I’m not good with statistics. What would it do to that CFR number if the number of people who actually had it was increased by a factor of 20? I expect that there are 20 positive people not tested, for each one test positive.
Well - that means we’re basically done because 15 Million Americans have been diagnosed...so that means, by your figuring, 300 million (90%) have already had it.
Early on the pandemic, credible estimates for undetected cases were as high as 10:1. That number has now dropped though with widespread testing. A scientific study in Sept. Put the number closer to 3:1. I think that is close to the assumption the CDC is using for its estimate.
i keep thinking of the people who in the beginning said this was so much less than other outbreaks.
it's really a shame that they were proven wrong. and we aren't even near the end of this one.
As I mentioned my Dad is in the hospital with COVID pneumonia. He was asked at admittance about signing to not be resuscitated if needed. Apparently if you sign that, then quit breathing, they will not perform CPR and will not be putting you on a ventilator.
His doctor is from Brooklyn NY and was in the heat of it there last spring, and the doctor only saw about 5% of ones on ventilators live. He isn’t a ventilator proponent.
Sounds like my Dad is doing okay. He is hooked up to a oxygen monitor. When he moves around, the numbers go down. Lowest he saw was 74% when he was moving around. Normally he is now at about 91%-93%. Being treated with remdesivir.
He seems to be doing better than many in there. The Covid unit there is full 20-30 patients, no visitors allowed. Youngest person who died at that hospital was 49.
RZehr wrote:As I mentioned my Dad is in the hospital with COVID pneumonia. He was asked at admittance about signing to not be resuscitated if needed. Apparently if you sign that, then quit breathing, they will not perform CPR and will not be putting you on a ventilator.
His doctor is from Brooklyn NY and was in the heat of it there last spring, and the doctor only saw about 5% of ones on ventilators live. He isn’t a ventilator proponent.
Sounds like my Dad is doing okay. He is hooked up to a oxygen monitor. When he moves around, the numbers go down. Lowest he saw was 74% when he was moving around. Normally he is now at about 91%-93%. Being treated with remdesivir.
He seems to be doing better than many in there. The Covid unit there is full 20-30 patients, no visitors allowed. Youngest person who died at that hospital was 49.
Wow - then this is all very real for you. So sad to hear. I’m glad things are looking positive. We’ll pray God’s healing and comfort for your dad.
I just spent the afternoon with the family of a retired former employee who just died of COVID at 73. He was active & relatively healthy until he got ill a few weeks ago. This doesn’t seem like a far away possibility any more.
We’re are still hanging in there and monitoring our oxygen intake. Symptoms are still mild. I’m coughing tonight and feeling fatigue. We consider ourselves fortunate. God has been good so far.
But man, I’m exhausted. Just going out and feeding the chickens wears me out. We’re eating canned soup, because cooking is too exhausting. I made dinner a couple of nights ago and it just about wiped me out.
My county with a population of about 10,000 now has over 900 cases, about 300 new cases in the past week. That number is probably low because it’s taking 13 days for the local hospital to get results. We went to Pueblo and I was able to get results in 3 days.
I’m going to insert an inappropriate joke here that if anyone still thinks this is a hoax or overblown, I’m happy to come over and cough on you and show you just how not a big deal this is.
RZehr wrote:The CARES Act apparently pays for COVID hospital bills. So hopefully no one is dying because they aren’t going to the hospital for fear of the bill.
In our case, the local hospital is full. But we’ll go if our symptoms get worse or our oxygen intake gets scary.
My in-laws purchased a pulse oximeter for us. It’s been a huge source of comfort.
