mike wrote:
We could. But the second and (as of yet) third waves of the virus have not seen anywhere near the rate of deaths as the first wave.
Actually Mike, the relationship of deaths and cases in this third wave has been tracking very close to the second. The math is pretty straightforward here. Look at the numbers:
In the last wave, the 7-day average for cases peaked at about 69,000 on July 17, with deaths peaking at 1,081 about 18-days later. At that time the ratio of deaths to cases was about 1.6%.
In the current wave, on Oct 25th, the 7-day average for cases was roughly 68,000, and deaths 18 days later (Nov 11) were 1,080. Once again a death to cases ratio of about 1.6%.
Extrapolating forward, if this ratio holds (as it appears to be) we should see about 2,000 deaths a day by the end of November (130,000 cases/day x 1.6%). Where it goes from there depends on case load and hospitalization rates from here forward.
Copied this post from 24 days ago (Nov 12) just to illustrate how mathematically consistent this pandemic has been.
The daily average for deaths is now 2,222 - which is pretty close to what the numbers predicted over three weeks ago. Simply speaking - deaths have been following case rates by about three weeks (18-21 days) at a ratio of 1.5%-1.7% since early summer. Why - it takes COVID-diagnosed folks about three weeks to die of the disease on average, and the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID has been about 1.6% since June.
Currently (Dec. 5) the seven-day daily average case number is about 200,000 cases/day. This means that in about three weeks (at Christmas time) the county will be seeing a tragic average in excess of 3,000 deaths per day (20,000-25,000 deaths per week)! At that rate, it would take about two weeks for COVID to equal the average annual flu season. I think we have been at this so long that sometimes we loose perspective. Remember when folks were arguing that this is "just a bad flu?"
We are basically up to a 9-11 level of deaths every 24 hours. Or a Vietnam War death toll every month.
Stay safe.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Dan Z wrote:
Actually Mike, the relationship of deaths and cases in this third wave has been tracking very close to the second. The math is pretty straightforward here. Look at the numbers:
In the last wave, the 7-day average for cases peaked at about 69,000 on July 17, with deaths peaking at 1,081 about 18-days later. At that time the ratio of deaths to cases was about 1.6%.
In the current wave, on Oct 25th, the 7-day average for cases was roughly 68,000, and deaths 18 days later (Nov 11) were 1,080. Once again a death to cases ratio of about 1.6%.
Extrapolating forward, if this ratio holds (as it appears to be) we should see about 2,000 deaths a day by the end of November (130,000 cases/day x 1.6%). Where it goes from there depends on case load and hospitalization rates from here forward.
Copied this post from 24 days ago (Nov 12) just to illustrate how mathematically consistent this pandemic has been.
The daily average for deaths is now 2,222 - which is pretty close to what the numbers predicted over three weeks ago. Simply speaking - deaths have been following case rates by about three weeks (18-21 days) at a ratio of 1.5%-1.7% since early summer. Why - it takes COVID-diagnosed folks about three weeks to die of the disease on average, and the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID has been about 1.6% since June.
Currently (Dec. 5) the seven-day daily average case number is about 200,000 cases/day. This means that in about three weeks (at Christmas time) the county will be seeing a tragic average in excess of 3,000 deaths per day (20,000-25,000 deaths per week)! At that rate, it would take about two weeks for COVID to equal the average annual flu season. I think we have been at this so long that sometimes we loose perspective. Remember when folks were arguing that this is "just a bad flu?"
For most people it is like the flu period for a lot of people they don't have any symptoms. And for a great deal of people they might have a symptom that's not serious for instance since I talked to so many people since I scanned about 200 customers a day at my work and of course everyone wants to share, they tell me about so and so had it and this is all that happened to them so I'm so had it and they just lost their sense of taste and that was it things like that. My pharmacist said for somebody over 70 that has other underlying issues and obese it could be a much higher risk.
Some perspective about death rates.
On D-Day the American Army landed over 150,000 troops on the beaches of Normandy and suffered 4,414 deaths for a death rate of 2.9%
On Friday we had 220,000 new cases of Covid in this country and 2,857 deaths. The current case fatality rate in the US is 1.9% or nearly as high as the death rate on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. If you have any co-morbidities related to health, race, or age it is higher.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Dan Z wrote:
Copied this post from 24 days ago (Nov 12) just to illustrate how mathematically consistent this pandemic has been.
The daily average for deaths is now 2,222 - which is pretty close to what the numbers predicted over three weeks ago. Simply speaking - deaths have been following case rates by about three weeks (18-21 days) at a ratio of 1.5%-1.7% since early summer. Why - it takes COVID-diagnosed folks about three weeks to die of the disease on average, and the case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID has been about 1.6% since June.
Currently (Dec. 5) the seven-day daily average case number is about 200,000 cases/day. This means that in about three weeks (at Christmas time) the county will be seeing a tragic average in excess of 3,000 deaths per day (20,000-25,000 deaths per week)! At that rate, it would take about two weeks for COVID to equal the average annual flu season. I think we have been at this so long that sometimes we loose perspective. Remember when folks were arguing that this is "just a bad flu?"
For most people it is like the flu period for a lot of people they don't have any symptoms. And for a great deal of people they might have a symptom that's not serious for instance since I talked to so many people since I scanned about 200 customers a day at my work and of course everyone wants to share, they tell me about so and so had it and this is all that happened to them so I'm so had it and they just lost their sense of taste and that was it things like that. My pharmacist said for somebody over 70 that has other underlying issues and obese it could be a much higher risk.
Some perspective about death rates.
On D-Day the American Army landed over 150,000 troops on the beaches of Normandy and suffered 4,414 deaths for a death rate of 2.9%
On Friday we had 220,000 new cases of Covid in this country and 2,857 deaths. The current case fatality rate in the US is 1.9% or nearly as high as the death rate on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. If you have any co-morbidities related to health, race, or age it is higher.
Are you saying the 1.9% fatality rate is all in people with no co-morbidities, and for people with co-morbidities the death rate is higher than 1.9%?
Valerie wrote:
For most people it is like the flu period for a lot of people they don't have any symptoms. And for a great deal of people they might have a symptom that's not serious for instance since I talked to so many people since I scanned about 200 customers a day at my work and of course everyone wants to share, they tell me about so and so had it and this is all that happened to them so I'm so had it and they just lost their sense of taste and that was it things like that. My pharmacist said for somebody over 70 that has other underlying issues and obese it could be a much higher risk.
Some perspective about death rates.
On D-Day the American Army landed over 150,000 troops on the beaches of Normandy and suffered 4,414 deaths for a death rate of 2.9%
On Friday we had 220,000 new cases of Covid in this country and 2,857 deaths. The current case fatality rate in the US is 1.9% or nearly as high as the death rate on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. If you have any co-morbidities related to health, race, or age it is higher.
Are you saying the 1.9% fatality rate is all in people with no co-morbidities, and for people with co-morbidities the death rate is higher than 1.9%?
Yes. The overall case fatality rate for the US is 1.9%. That is the average rate for the entire US (total deaths divided by total cases). By definition, those with co-morbidities like age, obesity, or other chronic respiratory disease are going to have a higher death rate. And those who are younger and healthier are going to have lower death rates.
RZehr wrote:I don’t believe that number. How can it be accurately calculated if, as I believe, many people are getting the virus but not getting tested?
It is only as good as the data we collect.
Both the total cases and total deaths are likely underestimated. A lot of people catch covid without being tested. But a lot of people have also died without being confirmed covid deaths. So both the numerators and denominators that determine the case fatality rates are likely to be underestimates. The question is which one is the greater source of error.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
On D-Day the American Army landed over 150,000 troops on the beaches of Normandy and suffered 4,414 deaths for a death rate of 2.9%
On Friday we had 220,000 new cases of Covid in this country and 2,857 deaths. The current case fatality rate in the US is 1.9% or nearly as high as the death rate on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day. If you have any co-morbidities related to health, race, or age it is higher.
Are you saying the 1.9% fatality rate is all in people with no co-morbidities, and for people with co-morbidities the death rate is higher than 1.9%?
Yes. The overall case fatality rate for the US is 1.9%. That is the average rate for the entire US (total deaths divided by total cases). By definition, those with co-morbidities like age, obesity, or other chronic respiratory disease are going to have a higher death rate. And those who are younger and healthier are going to have lower death rates.
RZehr wrote:I don’t believe that number. How can it be accurately calculated if, as I believe, many people are getting the virus but not getting tested?
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is a concrete number- how many confirmed deaths divided by how many confirmed cases. Early on it was higher, but since June in the US it has settled in at about 1.6%.
The less known number is the Incident Fatality Rate (IFR) - total (known & unknown) cases divided by total (known & unknown) deaths. Like Ken said, both cases and deaths are likely underestimated. Best estimates for IFR in the US from the CDC is .65%. I’ve seen other recent scientific studies as high 1.15% and as low as .24%.
RZehr wrote:I don’t believe that number. How can it be accurately calculated if, as I believe, many people are getting the virus but not getting tested?
Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is a concrete number- how many confirmed deaths divided by how many confirmed cases. Early on it was higher, but since June in the US it has settled in at about 1.6%.
The less known number is the Incident Fatality Rate (IFR) - total (known & unknown) cases divided by total (known & unknown) deaths. Like Ken said, both cases and deaths are likely underestimated. Best estimates for IFR in the US from the CDC based on scientific estimates including both under-counted cases and deaths is .65%. I’ve seen other recent scientific studies as high 1.15% and as low as .24%.
Wow. 1.6% is about the mortality rate for a Coronary Bypass! That is really high. Even 0.65% is bad, although I would love to know the statistical methodology behind that number. I am just now understanding why the "Hopkins" number for Maryland is different than that which the state releases.
I am hearing about quite a number of people who have died, mostly with significant co-morbidities. If you fall into this category please be careful.
It is sufficiently difficult that they have my (now retired) wife coming back to do covid testing. She expects to hear what the "plan" is as soon as the FDA approves these vaccines.
I understand percentages. I’m not good with statistics. What would it do to that CFR number if the number of people who actually had it was increased by a factor of 20? I expect that there are 20 positive people not tested, for each one test positive.