Coronavirus Outbreak

[Judas Maccabeus]

So....we need to now hang bone rattles from our noses?

"Just wear the mask." (Marylands governor, Larry Hogan)

He reported that surveys show a 96% compliance rate in Maryland, and I believe it as I go about my business. The case positivity rate in MD is at 6.04% Better than PA at 28.95% and VA at 10.69%.

You can debate all you like, but it appears to do something.

J.M.

I'd guess the mask compliance rate for PA is less than a 60% compliance rate. Total cases per 1M population in PA are 31,612 compared 34,602 cases per 1M population in MD.

You can debate all you like, but it appears PA's refusal to mask up is helping somewhat.

OK, well, I don't actually believe that. But I do think it's absurd to suggest that COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA compared to MD.

Case positivity rates seem to be the best indicator of prevalence in the community. Unlike number of postitves you find, it is independent of sample size. You can change how many you find by changing the amount of testing you do, but no matter how much testing you do (How large your sample size is) the percentage of positives in the community should be reflected by the positivity rate.

At least that is what I have been taught.

J.M.

[ken_sylvania]

"Just wear the mask." (Marylands governor, Larry Hogan)

He reported that surveys show a 96% compliance rate in Maryland, and I believe it as I go about my business. The case positivity rate in MD is at 6.04% Better than PA at 28.95% and VA at 10.69%.

You can debate all you like, but it appears to do something.

J.M.

I'd guess the mask compliance rate for PA is less than a 60% compliance rate. Total cases per 1M population in PA are 31,612 compared 34,602 cases per 1M population in MD.

You can debate all you like, but it appears PA's refusal to mask up is helping somewhat.

OK, well, I don't actually believe that. But I do think it's absurd to suggest that COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA compared to MD.

Case positivity rates seem to be the best indicator of prevalence in the community. Unlike number of postitves you find, it is independent of sample size. You can change how many you find by changing the amount of testing you do, but no matter how much testing you do (How large your sample size is) the percentage of positives in the community should be reflected by the positivity rate.

At least that is what I have been taught.

J.M.

If testing is limited to only those showing symptoms rather than widespread access to testing, wouldn't that also increase the positivity rate?

If in fact COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA than in MD, then it seems to me that either (1) only 25% of PA COVID deaths are being recorded properly, (2) MD deaths due to non-COVID causes are being recorded as COVID, or (3) MD residents who get COVID are much more likely to die from it than PA residents.

[Ken]

I'd guess the mask compliance rate for PA is less than a 60% compliance rate. Total cases per 1M population in PA are 31,612 compared 34,602 cases per 1M population in MD.

You can debate all you like, but it appears PA's refusal to mask up is helping somewhat.

OK, well, I don't actually believe that. But I do think it's absurd to suggest that COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA compared to MD.

Case positivity rates seem to be the best indicator of prevalence in the community. Unlike number of postitves you find, it is independent of sample size. You can change how many you find by changing the amount of testing you do, but no matter how much testing you do (How large your sample size is) the percentage of positives in the community should be reflected by the positivity rate.

At least that is what I have been taught.

J.M.

If testing is limited to only those showing symptoms rather than widespread access to testing, wouldn't that also increase the positivity rate?

If in fact COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA than in MD, then it seems to me that either (1) only 25% of PA COVID deaths are being recorded properly, (2) MD deaths due to non-COVID causes are being recorded as COVID, or (3) MD residents who get COVID are much more likely to die from it than PA residents.

It would eventually show up in the hospitalization rate one way or the other. False positives and such don't get hospitalized or put on ventilators.

[Judas Maccabeus]

Case positivity rates seem to be the best indicator of prevalence in the community. Unlike number of postitves you find, it is independent of sample size. You can change how many you find by changing the amount of testing you do, but no matter how much testing you do (How large your sample size is) the percentage of positives in the community should be reflected by the positivity rate.

At least that is what I have been taught.

J.M.

If testing is limited to only those showing symptoms rather than widespread access to testing, wouldn't that also increase the positivity rate?

If in fact COVID is 5x more prevalent in PA than in MD, then it seems to me that either (1) only 25% of PA COVID deaths are being recorded properly, (2) MD deaths due to non-COVID causes are being recorded as COVID, or (3) MD residents who get COVID are much more likely to die from it than PA residents.

It would eventually show up in the hospitalization rate one way or the other. False positives and such don't get hospitalized or put on ventilators.

It will, but both hospitalization and deaths run behind positive tests. So you really do not know if the higher rate of positives are because of a more constrained testing situation, more of the virus out there, or other cultural factors. We also lack data from the future when the people who test positive today show up in need of hospitalization.

I wonder if you have fewer or more beds per population.

Pa hospitalization rates are about 365 per million. Maryland rate is about 262 per million. Data from NY times. So there is definitely more of it up there. How much more remains to be seen. Our public health people are getting concerned about 6%. They are not pulling the panic cord, yet.

It is higher, likely not 5x, but in a highly constrained bed situation, when you get very full, you become more judicious as to who you admit. 100 persons per million is not an anomaly.

J.M.

[RZehr]

My Dad is now in hospital with COVID-pneumonia. Went to a clinic to try to get medicine for what was thought to be bronchitis and was sent to the hospital with Covid.
Not on oxygen, but does have low oxygen levels.
The nurse said that “conspiracy theorist and nay sayers usually shut their pie holes when they get to the ER with Covid.”

[Sudsy]

This Current Events forum asks the question how do we Anabaptists approach or address a current event i.e. the Covid pandemic ?

Here is an article from a Mennonite Brethren perspective, a church we attend, and am curious what others think

https://www.mbseminary.ca/christians-li ... -pandemic/

[Robert]

This Current Events forum asks the question how do we Anabaptists approach or address a current event i.e. the Covid pandemic ?

Here is an article from a Mennonite Brethren perspective, a church we attend, and am curious what others think

https://www.mbseminary.ca/christians-li ... -pandemic/

The western world has grown used to comfort and security. When we have society and government to protect us, we have less need to lean on God. I think the pandemic has shown this as a undercurrent in our culture right now. While we, as followers of Jesus, should be as helpful to society as we can, we should not put our trust in chariots and horses or live in fear. Early Anabaptists longed for a better world so they did not cling to this one as much. This year ratifies a quesion I have had asked me once long ago.

"Whom do you trust?"

[Ken]

My Dad is now in hospital with COVID-pneumonia. Went to a clinic to try to get medicine for what was thought to be bronchitis and was sent to the hospital with Covid.
Not on oxygen, but does have low oxygen levels.
The nurse said that “conspiracy theorist and nay sayers usually shut their pie holes when they get to the ER with Covid.”

So sorry to hear about your Dad. Praying for the best.

[RZehr]

Thank you. He was eventually put on oxygen, was at 88. This morning, based on his group texts, he is doing okay.

[Sudsy]

This Current Events forum asks the question how do we Anabaptists approach or address a current event i.e. the Covid pandemic ?

Here is an article from a Mennonite Brethren perspective, a church we attend, and am curious what others think

https://www.mbseminary.ca/christians-li ... -pandemic/

The western world has grown used to comfort and security. When we have society and government to protect us, we have less need to lean on God. I think the pandemic has shown this as a undercurrent in our culture right now. While we, as followers of Jesus, should be as helpful to society as we can, we should not put our trust in chariots and horses or live in fear. Early Anabaptists longed for a better world so they did not cling to this one as much. This year ratifies a quesion I have had asked me once long ago.

"Whom do you trust?"

A good question. IN GOD WE TRUST. Really ? We do ?

I think this may be one of the areas of poorest testimony when it comes to how we stand out from the fears and anxieties that this world is so caught up with. For the Christ follower we are to expect sufferings in this life and these are just not the persecution that comes from spreading the Gospel. We are not guaranteed to be sick free until this mortal puts on immortality.

I am far from a perfect representative of a Kingdom of God mindset, yet should we not be encouraging one another to live in a way of trusting God to actually be shining lights in this world of darkness ? We can either listen to what Jesus said and follow Him or listen to what the world's fears are and join them in their temporal anxieties.

I really doubt Jesus would approve of how of this world we Christ Followers have become in North America. What is there about us that would attract any unbeliever to become on of us if we have their same fears and anxieties ? Do they see us as unattached to this world and representatives of a world to come ?

I say us and yet there are some that really are living with a Kingdom perspective and I, for one, want to hear from them more. Whatever the latest current events are, how can we spur on each other to not be sucked into the world's anxieties ? Satan is hard at work keeping us off track to our mission.

Anyway, that is what I am thinking about and open to those who have similar thoughts and how we Anabaptists can stand out as cities on a hill that cannot be hid or is it too late.