Coronavirus Outbreak

[MaxPC]

So every time something bad happens and people die, I'll compare the number of fatalities to the number of abortions to see if I should care or not.

I agree. Abortions exponentially outpace any all of these.

[joshuabgood]

So every time something bad happens and people die, I'll compare the number of fatalities to the number of abortions to see if I should care or not.

I agree. Abortions exponentially outpace any all of these.

I think you missed his point.

[Robert]

Announcement today from the CDC

299,000 x 2/3 = 199,333 excess Covid deaths.

This sounds about right. This is serious, but not catastrophic. They were projecting 2 million deaths. I guess this is why many of us see this as a partial win. We did the hard work and it paid off. Now that we can manage it and death rates keep going down, we need to move forward or more deaths will be in other categories.

299,000 - 199,333 = 99,667 elevated deaths from other causes.

This means some are not getting treatment or lockdowns are triggering side effects. I would not want this number to get higher and match Covid deaths since we are starting to get a handle on how to treat it and vaccines coming on line very soon.

It shows mitigation worked. Other indicators show that we can not stay in lockdown or other excess deaths will surpass Covid deaths. It is a balancing act. Not all one or the other. Hospitals and healthcare are not overrun. WE can return to functioning while managing the consequences of the virus, as we do many other causes of illness.

These numbers actually bring hope. Thanks for posting it.

[Dan Z]

No to quibble Robert - but I believe the CDC was generalizing when it said "at least 2 out of 3 deaths." The current death count is about 225K, and there is strong empirical evidence that, if anything, this is an undercount of COVID deaths.

Along with you, I'm happy that we're not looking at a million or more deaths...although I'm not convinced that if it would get to a million, those who all along have been bent toward discounting the seriousness of the disease would ever be convinced otherwise. The goalposts keep moving. I remember many discussions early on when it was "just a bad flu"...which persisted until deaths surpassed any flu season in 50 years (61K in 2018) and then 100 years (116K deaths in 1958), and now it is a "partial win" because "at least it was not 2 million." COVID, an entirely new disease, is now the fourth leading cause of death in the US (behind abortion, heart disease, cancer) - and by the end of March, in just 12 months, COVID could possibly kill more people than the US lost in WWII (400K).

While it's not the Spanish flu (it would have to kill over 2 million to reach that level proportionately), it is a tragic and deadly serious pandemic. It past time to come to terms with that reality.

[MaxPC]

So every time something bad happens and people die, I'll compare the number of fatalities to the number of abortions to see if I should care or not.

I agree. Abortions exponentially outpace any all of these.

I think you missed his point.

No one missed any point, JB. You would do well to avoid being so quick to correct others. Instead ask and avoid jumping to a conclusion.

[Robert]

No to quibble Robert - but I believe the CDC was generalizing when it said "at least 2 out of 3 deaths."

I was just contextualizing the numbers While they are real lives, arguing over 200,000 and 240,000 seems unnecessary to me. It does not change the percentages much when you are talking 330 million people.

The current death count is about 225K, and there is strong empirical evidence that, if anything, this is an undercount of COVID deaths.

There is also empirical evidence that these numbers are inflated because of the increased funding for Covid cases from the federal government, so I would suggest both wash each other out.

now it is a "partial win" because "at least it was not 2 million."

Was this not the reason the task force gave for lockdowns? Dr Fauci said this clearly. To discount this seems to be moving goal posts.

COVID, an entirely new disease, is now the fourth leading cause of death in the US (behind abortion, heart disease, cancer)

I would disagree that it is an entirely new disease. It is a new strain of Coronavirus which has been around for longer than humanity. It is a virus. It reacts and can be treated the same way we treat all virii. Claiming it is new distorts perceptions and makes people think is is the zombie apocalypse, which it is not. It is only 13 in the ranks of pandemics humanity has faced. While serious, it is not catastrophic. Please do not read into that statement that I do not think it is an issue or does not need to be addressed. I strongly think we do need/needed to address it. I also think it needs to be put into perspective. This year, it is 4th in deaths, but most likely that will be one year, while the other causes will continue year after year. Covid will burn out as does all cononavirus and it will be just one of the virus we have to deal with on a continual basis.

Comparing it to WW2 deaths is not a good meter. 22 million died in WW2.

it is a tragic and deadly serious pandemic. It past time to come to terms with that reality.

As I said multiple times, I do consider it serious. I am trying to look at it realistically, in context to many things. I also see it as a short lived crisis. By next year, I think we will not be concerned about it. Those who are, will vaccinate. I do not want to see the US destroy the things needed for most to function and find prosperity because of needless fear. I also think followers of Jesus should not express excessive fear in this or other conditions. Our hope and faith should be in eternal life through Christ. To live is Christ, to die is gain.

Yes, we should do what we can individually to mitigate, but if excessive mitigation is causing more harm then good, we need to identify that and not follow along with the culture that is propagating that. I can wear a mask and say I see little benefit from it. I can social distance and say I am concerned that it is doing other serious damage to our society. I can live within the system, but still speak to a better way. Paul did it. We should too.

[PeterG]

Ask and avoid jumping to a conclusion.

What do you think my point was?

[mike]

227,419 coronavirus deaths as of today.

Daily new cases climbing:



Daily new cases now also ticking up also. It took around five weeks for there to be an uptick in the daily deaths following the new rise in cases. This was a longer gap than the previous peak, so again that is a sign that the virus is under better control this time around. But still, these death numbers have been in the 700s per day for a long time, and are headed up.



For some reason, the ourworldindata.org excess deaths chart now does not show the stats through the end of September. A week or two ago, it did, and the excess deaths for the end of September were showing below the expected threshold. That was making me wonder whether we would see a trend of the deaths amazingly dropping below expected levels for the winter. But the chart now shows only data through Sept. 6. So it looks like we wait awhile to see whether that really is what is happening.

[MaxPC]

Ask and avoid jumping to a conclusion.

What do you think my point was?

Peter, in following your posts, I saw examples of apagogical usages. In my post I simply pointed out that the reality of USA abortion numbers (more than 61 million babies aborted in the 47 years since Roe v Wade) made your apagogicals appear less of the reductio ad absurdum extreme and were in reality supported logically by actual numbers.

Vis a vis the COVID-19 numbers, the number of abortions each year in the past 47 years (average of 1,311,246+ babies aborted per year) sets a rather stark comparison.

If you were indeed seeking to use apagogical statements, my response applies. If you were being sincere in highlighting the issue of abortions, my statement still applies. At least in my mind's eye.

[Dan Z]

It took around five weeks for there to be an uptick in the daily deaths following the new rise in cases. This was a longer gap than the previous peak, so again that is a sign that the virus is under better control this time around.

I agree with this - the death rate should be a smaller proportion of the total cases this time around, like it was last wave compared to the first. The question is how high will the case rate go this time - there is lots of potential out there still. If the case rate goes much higher than the last wave, death rates could still rise significantly elative to past waves. Hopefully cases peak out soon. Some of the models are predicting an average of 1,000 deaths/day by Thanksgiving, and 2,000 a day by Christmas - it would take a huge case rate to get there. Another major model composite is seeing a flattening in a few weeks.