Coronavirus Outbreak

[Judas Maccabeus]

Does anyone know which of these are not based on aborted fetus material and which are? Yes, I suppose I'm rounding off the corner. But I suppose you get my question.

The green ones in the diagram (non-replicating adenovirus vaccines) are probably the ones that do rely on stem cells for vaccine replication. But that's just a guess on my part based on my pretty layman's knowledge of how they are made.

Depends on what you mean by “ based on aborted fetus material”? Do you mean “used in the production of,“ or merely “used in testing.”

Which definition you use will yield a different answer. Soloist is well informed on this, I disagree with his position, but the information he has is generally good.

I do not see this as a big issue, and in actually I generally agree with the “official” position of the RCC. (Max now fainting). It is well reason, it is essentially we would wish they had not created those cell lines, and we should not create more, but using them is less of an evil than discarding them, and the vaccines produced by them, and we should seek more ethical alternatives. (Max correct me here if I am wrong)

There is a reason that human cell lines are preferable for this kind of work. I was involved with a monoclonal antibody that was made from Murine cells. You could use it once safely, but after that, Katie bar the door, the reactions we saw were scary beyond belief. The patients had created powerful antibodies against the Murine component of the drug. We were driving the “post licensure experience” people nuts. In the end it went out of use because a synthetic peptide version had been created, no more reactions. We wanted a “Black Box.” Under normal circumstances the FDA moves really slow.

So people do not use these stem cell lines because they like, or even approve of abortion. They use them because if you need a cell line these are safer for the patient....by far.

J.M.

[Dan Z]

• Infections up over 50% in past five weeks
• Hospitalizations up 20% in past three weeks
• Test positivity 5% and rising
• Death rates just beginning to nudge upward

Is this the beginning of the much-discussed fall wave?

A recent large national study in the Lancet found that only about 10% of Americans have been infected to date - leaving society far from herd immunity, and a large growth potential for the virus still untapped. Things are particularly hot here in the upper Midwest. For all our sake, I hope folks continue to abide by the guidance of the public health authorities (as opposed to politicians) on this going forward - I suspect more tightening may be needed.

Interesting side note - in late spring the CDC was estimating that testing was catching only about 10% of actual infections. According to the data in the Lancet, testing now has identified 25% of the cases (8 million out of 33 million cases), which means testing is beginning to catch up to actual infections.

[Judas Maccabeus]

• Infections up over 50% in past five weeks
• Hospitalizations up 20% in past three weeks
• Test positivity 5% and rising
• Death rates just beginning to nudge upward

Is this the beginning of the much-discussed fall wave?

A recent large national study in the Lancet found that only about 10% of Americans have been infected to date - leaving society far from herd immunity, and a large growth potential for the virus still untapped. Things are particularly hot here in the upper Midwest. For all our sake, I hope folks continue to abide by the guidance of the public health authorities (as opposed to politicians) on this going forward - I suspect more tightening may be needed.

Interesting side note - in late spring the CDC was estimating that testing was catching only about 10% of actual infections. According to the data in the Lancet, testing now has identified 25% of the cases (8 million out of 33 million cases), which means testing is beginning to catch up to actual infections.

If you look at the graphs, it looks to me like we are approaching an equilibrium, with each wave less and less far from the mean.

The good news is I am in Colorado now, and mask compliance seems quite good. About the same as MD and CA. Admittedly it is a small sample, but it is from several grocery stores.

J.M.

[Dan Z]

If you look at the graphs, it looks to me like we are approaching an equilibrium, with each wave less and less far from the mean.

I'll be watching that carefully. What did you mean by "approaching an equilibrium"?

In terms of death rate, the second wave was quite a bit flatter than the first...it will be interesting to see if the third wave is flatter still, or if the second wave will end up representative of the third (leaving the first as anomalous). Either is a possibility IMO.

[Ken]

If you look at the graphs, it looks to me like we are approaching an equilibrium, with each wave less and less far from the mean.

I'll be watching that carefully. What did you mean by "approaching an equilibrium"?

In terms of death rate, the second wave was quite a bit flatter than the first...it will be interesting to see if the third wave is flatter still, or if the second wave will end up representative of the third (leaving the first as anomalous). Either is a possibility IMO.

It's like a diminishing wave function. Each subsequent wave or divergence from the mean is smaller, until you land on an equilibrium state.

[mike]

If you look at the graphs, it looks to me like we are approaching an equilibrium, with each wave less and less far from the mean.
J.M.

Yes. There have been three waves of the virus now, we're heading up to the third peak of cases now. The slope up to the peak of each wave has been successively less steep.

[Judas Maccabeus]

If you look at the graphs, it looks to me like we are approaching an equilibrium, with each wave less and less far from the mean.

I'll be watching that carefully. What did you mean by "approaching an equilibrium"?

In terms of death rate, the second wave was quite a bit flatter than the first...it will be interesting to see if the third wave is flatter still, or if the second wave will end up representative of the third (leaving the first as anomalous). Either is a possibility IMO.

It's like a diminishing wave function. Each subsequent wave or divergence from the mean is smaller, until you land on an equilibrium state.

Thanks, I knew what I was looking at, I forgot what it was called.

Unfortunately it is at a rather high rate.

J.M.

[Dan Z]

I’m new to epidemiology - With 90% of the population still uninflected, is there evidence that pandemics might behave this way?

[Ken]

I’m new to epidemiology - With 90% of the population still uninflected, is there evidence that pandemics might behave this way?

Not really. What you are seeing in those national numbers are actually the aggregate numbers for every state, all of which look different, and none of which resemble individually the aggregate national numbers.

What we really have are a bunch of regional pandemics or regional waves that are only somewhat related to each other, each following its own separate course. Each individual state has had some sort of first wave and then a few early states are experiencing the start of a second wave. And even within states there are often several disconnected regional pandemics. Here in WA the pandemic hit Puget Sound first in early March, then the second wave hit the eastern WA ag counties in summer. What looks like two waves was really one wave west of the Cascades followed by a second wave east of the Cascades.

To get a sense of what pandemics generally tend to look at you need to zoom into a specific county or urban region. It's usually a single big wave, or a big wave followed by a second usually smaller wave. Although in 1918 it was the opposite. The second waves were larger.

[Robert]

I’m new to epidemiology - With 90% of the population still uninflected, is there evidence that pandemics might behave this way?

As in sound harmonics, a vaccine will interrupt the wave and can cancel it if used correctly. Good therapeutics will do similar. Interrupting the wave can completely cancel it.

We know the virus is mostly dangerous for 70+. If it reverberates in society, but is causing little harm, then it just becomes some of the background noise. Once a vaccine is released, it will be used on front line workers and the elderly. Even with only 10% of the population having immunity, the virus will have little affect and this will interrupt the wave, cancelling most of the "noise" it is causing.

Within months, the vulnerable will get vaccines. Since there are so many hitting, there will be plenty to access. It will interrupt the wave pattern of the virus and we will most likely see the end of the pandemic quickly. The whole world will not need to be vaccinated for this to happen, only the vulnerable.