Coronavirus Outbreak

[Ken]

He also backed away from this statement days later. So do we go by this or what he said days later?

I just go by the recommendations of my state and local heath authorities which recommend/mandate masks in enclosed public spaces and social distancing where possible. And I wish more of my fellow citizens would take more responsibly for bringing this pandemic to an end. In other words, set aside the whole mask question and just ask: "What are the things that YOU can do to prevent spreading this virus" Unfortunately in my corner of the world, numbers are starting to trend upwards again as mostly younger people are abandoning any effort.

Honestly, I'm just completely weary of this pandemic and having to parse for myself the tidal wave of information and mis-information washing around the internet today. And how political this has all gotten. We now have militia groups plotting to kidnap the governor of MI? Over masks? Really?

The only thing that is going to bring this country back to normal is a vaccine. We have clearly proven ourselves incapable of controlling the spread through any other means.

[mike]

He also backed away from this statement days later. So do we go by this or what he said days later?

I just go by the recommendations of my state and local heath authorities which recommend/mandate masks in enclosed public spaces and social distancing where possible. And I wish more of my fellow citizens would take more responsibly for bringing this pandemic to an end. Unfortunately in my corner of the world, numbers are starting to trend upwards again as mostly younger people are abandoning any effort.

Honestly, I'm just completely weary of this pandemic and having to parse for myself the tidal wave of information and mis-information washing around the internet today. And how political this has all gotten. We now have militia groups plotting to kidnap the governor of MI? Over masks? Really?

The only thing that is going to bring this country back to normal is a vaccine. We have clearly proven ourselves incapable of controlling the spread through any other means.

Our family doctor told my wife yesterday that even when a vaccine comes out she would not likely recommend it for everybody, that it is just as well for most people to get the virus and become immune that way. From that, I assume that she meant the shot might be recommended in the same way as the flu shot - available for everyone but especially encouraged for vulnerable populations.

[Ken]

He also backed away from this statement days later. So do we go by this or what he said days later?

I just go by the recommendations of my state and local heath authorities which recommend/mandate masks in enclosed public spaces and social distancing where possible. And I wish more of my fellow citizens would take more responsibly for bringing this pandemic to an end. Unfortunately in my corner of the world, numbers are starting to trend upwards again as mostly younger people are abandoning any effort.

Honestly, I'm just completely weary of this pandemic and having to parse for myself the tidal wave of information and mis-information washing around the internet today. And how political this has all gotten. We now have militia groups plotting to kidnap the governor of MI? Over masks? Really?

The only thing that is going to bring this country back to normal is a vaccine. We have clearly proven ourselves incapable of controlling the spread through any other means.

Our family doctor told my wife yesterday that even when a vaccine comes out she would not likely recommend it for everybody, that it is just as well for most people to get the virus and become immune that way. From that, I assume that she meant the shot might be recommended in the same way as the flu shot - available for everyone but especially encouraged for vulnerable populations.

It will be a long time before it is available for everyone anyway. I expect when a vaccine is rolled out it will go to critical front line workers and vulnerable populations first and then to institutional users who are likely to require it as conditions of employment or enrollment (schools, military, police, airline workers, factory workers, food processing workers, etc.) and then months later finally for everyone else.

A vaccine doesn't have to cover everyone. Just enough people in high-risk activities so that the R-value gets pushed below 1.0 and the pandemic will quickly ease anyway. As long as people and institutions (schools, universities, hospitals etc.) can protect themselves with a vaccine, people aren't going to really care if a percentage of the population wants to live with the risk of catching Covid.

[Soloist]

A vaccine doesn't have to cover everyone. Just enough people in high-risk activities so that the R-value gets pushed below 1.0 and the pandemic will quickly ease anyway. As long as people and institutions (schools, universities, hospitals etc.) can protect themselves with a vaccine, people aren't going to really care if a percentage of the population wants to live with the risk of catching Covid.

This isn't true for measles... why would it be true for covid when the hype has been extreme?

[Ken]

A vaccine doesn't have to cover everyone. Just enough people in high-risk activities so that the R-value gets pushed below 1.0 and the pandemic will quickly ease anyway. As long as people and institutions (schools, universities, hospitals etc.) can protect themselves with a vaccine, people aren't going to really care if a percentage of the population wants to live with the risk of catching Covid.

This isn't true for measles... why would it be true for covid when the hype has been extreme?

It is true for Measles. We haven't had a measles pandemic since a vaccine was invented in 1963. Prior to that nearly every child caught measles in childhood and there were hundreds if not thousands of measles deaths annually. What we do get today is infrequent tiny measles outbreaks that tend to be limited to small pockets of anti-vaxers like churches or private schools. Here in Clark County WA we had one of the biggest measles outbreaks in the country 2019 that made national news because it was spread in the conservative anti-vax Ukranian and Russian immigrant community. It only amounted to a total of 87 cases, mostly limited to one church and private school populated by anti-vaxers. Which is basically just one bad day of Covid infection. Even though measles is even more infectious than Covid: https://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily ... easles2019

[Soloist]

It is true for Measles. We haven't had a measles pandemic since a vaccine was invented in 1963. Prior to that nearly every child caught measles in childhood and there were hundreds if not thousands of measles deaths annually. What we do get today is infrequent tiny measles outbreaks that tend to be limited to small pockets of anti-vaxers like churches or private schools. Here in Clark County WA we had one of the biggest measles outbreaks in the country 2019 that made national news because it was spread in the conservative anti-vax Ukranian and Russian immigrant community. It only amounted to a total of 87 cases, mostly limited to one church and private school populated by anti-vaxers. Which is basically just one bad day of Covid infection. Even though measles is even more infectious than Covid: https://www.doh.wa.gov/YouandYourFamily ... easles2019

Actually several laws have ended up either being passed or nearly passed just because of those few anti-vaxers and measles. California now does not have a religious exemption or a philosophical one. Oregon nearly passed the same style of law and I believe Washington did. Other states too have this sort of thing in the works and predominantly it was because of measles becoming high profile.

My point is they will eventually care about those people refusing the vaccine and use some force to bring about compliance in the majority.

[Ken]

Actually several laws have ended up either being passed or nearly passed just because of those few anti-vaxers and measles. California now does not have a religious exemption or a philosophical one. Oregon nearly passed the same style of law and I believe Washington did. Other states too have this sort of thing in the works and predominantly it was because of measles becoming high profile.

My point is they will eventually care about those people refusing the vaccine and use some force to bring about compliance in the majority.

There are no mandatory measles vaccine law in any state. The only jurisdiction I'm aware of that has ever attempted a mandatory vaccination law is New York City in certain high-outbreak neighborhoods, and which abandoned that effort.

What there are are is state laws that require proof of vaccination for measles and other contagious diseases as a condition for enrollment in public schools. Which I agree with. Schools are infection-incubators and it is entirely appropriate to exclude children who are potential disease vectors. And I'm also in favor of closing the religious and personal belief exemptions which were being abused. Especially to protect those few who are immuno-compromised and can't be vaccinated for medical reasons. Parents who object are free to find private schools or home school. No one ever shows up at your door requiring compulsory vaccination.

I expect it will be exactly the same for Covid-19. Except that state legislatures are probably going to be less likely to humor anti-vax types with religious or personal belief exemptions when it comes to Covid as everyone is sick and tired of this and wants to get things re-opened ASAP.

[Bootstrap]

I just go by the recommendations of my state and local heath authorities which recommend/mandate masks in enclosed public spaces and social distancing where possible. And I wish more of my fellow citizens would take more responsibly for bringing this pandemic to an end. In other words, set aside the whole mask question and just ask: "What are the things that YOU can do to prevent spreading this virus".

I do the same thing.

And really, this is a test of whether we can function cohesively as a society. Countries where people follow the advice of the health authorities are doing a whole lot better than the United States is.

We're in a pandemic. Follow the advice of the health authorities or not? Is that a hard question? I mean, imagine a time before this became a political issue and try asking the question again. We're in a pandemic. Follow the advice of the health authorities or not?

[Bootstrap]

He also backed away from this statement days later. So do we go by this or what he said days later?

I haven't put a lot of time into this, but the first things I found match what I remembered: "backed away from this statement" means that after being hammered by the president, Redfield still says this:

The best defense we currently have against this virus are the important mitigation efforts of wearing a mask, washing your hands, social distancing and being careful about crowds.

But he also says more about the importance of vaccines, not actually contradicting what he said earlier:

I 100% believe in the importance of vaccines and the importance in particular of a #COVID19 vaccine. A COVID-19 vaccine is the thing that will get Americans back to normal everyday life.

And Redfield backed down on the claim that a vaccine won't be available until 2021, the President has been insisting it will be available very soon and would immediately go to the general public. We will see who is right on that.

Probably worth adding this to that list: doing things outside rather than inside when possible.

Am I missing something? From where I sit, the guidelines that Redfield, Fauci, Birx, and other public health authorities are giving us is pretty consistent. And of course, this matches the CDC guidelines, which gives additional guidelines.

The public health authorities seem to be on the same page.

[Soloist]

What there are are is state laws that require proof of vaccination for measles and other contagious diseases as a condition for enrollment in public schools. Which I agree with. Schools are infection-incubators and it is entirely appropriate to exclude children who are potential disease vectors. And I'm also in favor of closing the religious and personal belief exemptions which were being abused. Especially to protect those few who are immuno-compromised and can't be vaccinated for medical reasons. Parents who object are free to find private schools or home school. No one ever shows up at your door requiring compulsory vaccination.

I expect it will be exactly the same for Covid-19. Except that state legislatures are probably going to be less likely to humor anti-vax types with religious or personal belief exemptions when it comes to Covid as everyone is sick and tired of this and wants to get things re-opened ASAP.

To your first bolded, look closely at the states banning religious exemptions... it includes private schools as well as church day care and co-ops for homeschoolers. Particularly California would be a good study. Oregon had the same basic law on the books and Washington I believe their law is the same.

As for the second... That was exactly what I was talking about...

The room for those who object to the use of abortion in vaccine production is getting smaller by the year.