Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[Soloist]

I have not been reading this thread in its entirety so if this has been discussed previously, you can point me to the post(s)...

With Ukraine behind sending drones into Russia, it can no longer make the case that it is only driving out the invaders. The reasoning seems to be that making attacks inside Russia will help lower morale in Russia for fighting a war in Ukraine. In my mind, it would do the opposite. Many Russians will now believe that Ukraine and NATO are indeed trying to destroy Russia, just like Putin told them at the outstart of the war. They will be even more willing to fight.

Your thoughts???

I doubt it’s going to succeed in lowering morale, it’s going to only serve as propaganda that the western powers are propping Ukraine up to attack Russia. In someway they’re correct. On the flipside it is impossible to run a defensive war without offensive strikes to reduce military capacity. I disagree with some of their targeting choices, I would feel that it should be strictly kept to military targets and not assassinations at their homes.
But of course that is how war works. Neither side is morally right at the end of the war.

[Szdfan]

I have not been reading this thread in its entirety so if this has been discussed previously, you can point me to the post(s)...

With Ukraine behind sending drones into Russia, it can no longer make the case that it is only driving out the invaders. The reasoning seems to be that making attacks inside Russia will help lower morale in Russia for fighting a war in Ukraine. In my mind, it would do the opposite. Many Russians will now believe that Ukraine and NATO are indeed trying to destroy Russia, just like Putin told them at the outstart of the war. They will be even more willing to fight.

Your thoughts???

I doubt it’s going to succeed in lowering morale, it’s going to only serve as propaganda that the western powers are propping Ukraine up to attack Russia. In someway they’re correct. On the flipside it is impossible to run a defensive war without offensive strikes to reduce military capacity. I disagree with some of their targeting choices, I would feel that it should be strictly kept to military targets and not assassinations at their homes.
But of course that is how war works. Neither side is morally right at the end of the war.

The Ukrainian strikes in Russia proper don’t seem to have a lot of direct strategic military value at this point in regards of damaging Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine. A couple of days ago Ukrainian drones did destroy four Il-76 military transport planes at an airport. Last week, drones did destroy a Tu-22M super sonic bomber. However, most of the strikes have been in the Crimea and the damage from strikes in Moscow have up to this point been minimal with no deaths. All of this is small potatoes compared to Russian strikes in Ukraine.

I think that Soloist is right that there is a danger that Ukrainian drone strikes could reinforce Russian propaganda. I also think that one of the intentions for these strikes is to build up Ukrainian morale, for the Ukrainian military to demonstrate to its own people that they have the capacity to hit Russia.

The escalation of Ukrainian drone strikes comes at a time when the counteroffensive is going slower than hoped for. These strikes may serve a propagandic purpose in Ukraine and maintain support for the war.

[Soloist]

The Ukrainian strikes in Russia proper don’t seem to have a lot of direct strategic military value at this point in regards of damaging Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine. A couple of days ago Ukrainian drones did destroy four Il-76 military transport planes at an airport. Last week, drones did destroy a Tu-22M super sonic bomber. However, most of the strikes have been in the Crimea and the damage from strikes in Moscow have up to this point been minimal with no deaths. All of this is small potatoes compared to Russian strikes in Ukraine.

I think that Soloist is right that there is a danger that Ukrainian drone strikes could reinforce Russian propaganda. I also think that one of the intentions for these strikes is to build up Ukrainian morale, for the Ukrainian military to demonstrate to its own people that they have the capacity to hit Russia.

Drones have always been a sore spot for defense, too small for conventional defenses… nothing quite like a war of attrition against an unnamed ally with a drone bought off of Amazon for 100$ shot down with a tomahawk missile… pretty easy to see who came out ahead with that.

[Josh]

Public sentiment has changed to the point that ethnic Russians in Ukraine in places like Odesa hate Russia now, which is a marked shift from how things were 2 years ago.

This is a pointless conflict now of two sides burning up lots of money, men, and materials to blow up targets of little strategic value.

[Ken]

With Ukraine behind sending drones into Russia, it can no longer make the case that it is only driving out the invaders. The reasoning seems to be that making attacks inside Russia will help lower morale in Russia for fighting a war in Ukraine. In my mind, it would do the opposite. Many Russians will now believe that Ukraine and NATO are indeed trying to destroy Russia, just like Putin told them at the outstart of the war. They will be even more willing to fight.

Your thoughts???

and....

The Ukrainian strikes in Russia proper don’t seem to have a lot of direct strategic military value at this point in regards of damaging Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine. A couple of days ago Ukrainian drones did destroy four Il-76 military transport planes at an airport. Last week, drones did destroy a Tu-22M super sonic bomber. However, most of the strikes have been in the Crimea and the damage from strikes in Moscow have up to this point been minimal with no deaths. All of this is small potatoes compared to Russian strikes in Ukraine.

Actually such attacks do have immense strategic value, even if they don't actually do much damage.

Russia only has so much air defense capability.

If Ukraine limits its military operations to just the front line within Ukraine then Russia can load up the entire front line with a dense network of air defenses which will make it much more difficult and dangerous for Ukrainian planes and helicopters to attack along the front line and make their unmanned drone attacks along the front line less effective.

However if Ukraine is able to make random aerial attacks anywhere within western Russia from Moscow or St. Petersburg down to Rostov on Don then Russia will be forced to redeploy its air defenses over an absolutely massive area to protect air bases, munitions factories, critical infrastructure, and cities. Which will weaken their air defenses along the front line in Ukraine. Attacking Moscow directly weakens the front line in the Donbass.

This is the EXACT SAME strategy that Russia has been deploying inside Ukraine with its endless missile attacks on civilian infrastructure and cities all across Ukraine. Kyiv is now well protected from missile attack but at the expense of protecting military targets close to the front line. That the same tactic is now being used against Russia only seems fair and logical. "Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind" as the verse from Hosea goes.

[Soloist]

Public sentiment has changed to the point that ethnic Russians in Ukraine in places like Odesa hate Russia now, which is a marked shift from how things were 2 years ago.

This is a pointless conflict now of two sides burning up lots of money, men, and materials to blow up targets of little strategic value.

If you live in a land full of people that hate your homeland, you either leave, conform, or get persecuted.

[Ken]

Public sentiment has changed to the point that ethnic Russians in Ukraine in places like Odesa hate Russia now, which is a marked shift from how things were 2 years ago.

This is a pointless conflict now of two sides burning up lots of money, men, and materials to blow up targets of little strategic value.

If you live in a land full of people that hate your homeland, you either leave, conform, or get persecuted.

Ethnicity and nationality are two different things.

English-speaking Americans had no trouble running out the British in 1776 and English-speaking Irish had no trouble resisting English imperialism in Ireland for centuries.

Likewise, German-Americans had no trouble fighting against Germany during two world wars. And Japanese-Americans had no trouble fighting the Japanese even while their families were being horribly mistreated.

Russian-speakers in Ukraine are Ukrainians. In fact, Zelensky himself is a native Russian speaker and in the last election, he and his party were the favored party of Russian-speaking Ukrainians. By far.

[Josh]

Public sentiment has changed to the point that ethnic Russians in Ukraine in places like Odesa hate Russia now, which is a marked shift from how things were 2 years ago.

This is a pointless conflict now of two sides burning up lots of money, men, and materials to blow up targets of little strategic value.

If you live in a land full of people that hate your homeland, you either leave, conform, or get persecuted.

Areas like Odesa used to be very sympathetic to Russia (most notably when they took over Crimea) along with sympathies towards ethnic Russians in Donetsk and Lugansk, who were being shelled on a daily basis. That sympathy is all gone thanks to the endless bumbling and pointless violence of shelling and destroying tiny villages in the middle of nowhere.

[Josh]

Ethnicity and nationality are two different things.

Thanks for the lesson, Ken.

Russian-speakers in Ukraine are Ukrainians. In fact, Zelensky himself is a native Russian speaker and in the last election, he and his party were the favored party of Russian-speaking Ukrainians. By far.

No, they really aren't (many of them are in fact people who just moved there from Russia not that long ago), and they used to be much more aligned with the Russian Federation than they are now. The entire point of what I was saying is that this has been a large shift in the last 2 years.

But go ahead and keep repeating your talking points if it makes you feel better.

[Ken]

Ethnicity and nationality are two different things.

Thanks for the lesson, Ken.

Russian-speakers in Ukraine are Ukrainians. In fact, Zelensky himself is a native Russian speaker and in the last election, he and his party were the favored party of Russian-speaking Ukrainians. By far.

No, they really aren't (many of them are in fact people who just moved there from Russia not that long ago), and they used to be much more aligned with the Russian Federation than they are now. The entire point of what I was saying is that this has been a large shift in the last 2 years.

But go ahead and keep repeating your talking points if it makes you feel better.

We have actual numbers. An overwhelming 92% of Ukrainians voted for Independence from Russia when given the opportunity during the 1991 independence referendum including a majority of ethnic Russians in every part of Ukraine. You could not get 92% of Americans to even agree on motherhood and apple pie.

But you are correct, Russia's war of aggression and war crimes over the past two years have only moved the needle much further against it. To the point that Ethnic Russians are now voluntarily abandoning their language and religious traditions like celebrating Christmas on January 7th. Actions have consequences, that is true. Russia is doing far more to build a unified Ukraine than anything Ukraine could have done itself.

The two biggest consequences of this war so far have been:

1. Strengthening and expansion of NATO
2. Unification of Ukraine in opposition to Russia

This war could go down as the single biggest strategic blunder since the War of the Triple Alliance when poor landlocked Paraguay insanely took on Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay at the same time. With predictable results. Although I expect the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and German invasion of the USSR are up there too.