Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Ken »

RZehr wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 11:46 am Or it could be that the government wants to keep the agency in place in case they do end up needing it for a major war.
Except that the Pentagon, which actually plans for future wars, says that we don't need it and that they don't want it. And the Pentagon also has no contingency planning for actually implementing a draft. The US military already spends more than the next 10 militaries combined (or some such). We have long-distance deployment capacities that no other nation can come close to matching. And we have ocean borders to provide security that no other nation has.

And if they ever actually did do some new draft, the actual paperwork process of implementing a draft that the selective service does would be by far the easiest and most trivial part of the entire process that could be most quickly put together if they were starting from scratch. All the other parts would be MUCH more complicated and difficult.

1. The Military would have build a large number of new bases from scratch where they could house and train hundreds of thousands or millions of draftees. Over the past 50 years we have closed down and surplused all of the old bases that were previously used for that purpose as the military has shrank. For example, the Presidio in San Francisco is now a park. Where are you going to house and train millions of new draftees?

2. The military would have to equip a bunch of new divisions or squadrons or fleets which would mean building massive new quantities of tanks, trucks, planes, helicopters, guns, ships, etc. During WW2 they could do that by flipping assembly lines for Ford and GM into tank plane production. Modern weapons are far more complicated and expensive. We aren't just going to equip a bunch of infantry battalions by issuing them uniforms and sticking an M1 rifle into their hands like WW1 or WW2. That type of war is long over.

3. The military would have to create from scratch the logistics capacity to supply and transport all these new divisions and squadrons. So thousands of new cargo planes and ships that don't exist, hundreds of new supply depots and warehouses that don't exist, etc. etc.

So in the unlikely event that there ever would be some new draft, it would take the military years to gear up to where they could actually accommodate waves of millions of new draftees. Ramping up some new electronic registration system for young men and women to register for possible conscription is going to be the least of their worries. Your average tech company like Google could build that capacity in a day.

The military isn't keeping the selective service because they want to be ready for an emergency. Congress just doesn't have the political will to do away with it because there would inevitably be politicians that would grandstand and demagogue any attempt to get rid of it. So it just plods along decade after decade doing nothing but creating unnecessary busy work and wasting taxpayer dollars.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Soloist

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Soloist »

I think you need to read up on the efforts taken to arm and equip the US military following the attack on Pearl Harbor. You act as though this is too difficult to do.
Also, despite all these advanced weapons, you still need grunts with rifles.
US MILITARY PERSONNEL (1939-1945)

Year Army Navy Marines Coast Guard Total
1939 189,839 125,202 19,432 334,473
1940 269,023 160,997 28,345 458,365
1941 1,462,315 284,427 54,359 1,801,101
1942 3,075,608 640,570 142,613 56,716* 3,915,507
1943 6,994,472 1,741,750 308,523 151,167 9,195,912
1944 7,994,750 2,981,365 475,604 171,749 11,623,468
1945 8,267,958 3,380,817 474,680 85,783 12,209,238
You can't possibly think that in 1939 we had the facilities to deal with even a million troops do you?
Also, they went from proposing to make 40k planes a year to making twice as many during ww2... planes then were still fairly complex...
None of us want to see a draft, but lets not be naïve thinking the US can't do it if they think they need to.
0 x
Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Ken »

Soloist wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:52 pm I think you need to read up on the efforts taken to arm and equip the US military following the attack on Pearl Harbor. You act as though this is too difficult to do.
Also, despite all these advanced weapons, you still need grunts with rifles.
US MILITARY PERSONNEL (1939-1945)

Year Army Navy Marines Coast Guard Total
1939 189,839 125,202 19,432 334,473
1940 269,023 160,997 28,345 458,365
1941 1,462,315 284,427 54,359 1,801,101
1942 3,075,608 640,570 142,613 56,716* 3,915,507
1943 6,994,472 1,741,750 308,523 151,167 9,195,912
1944 7,994,750 2,981,365 475,604 171,749 11,623,468
1945 8,267,958 3,380,817 474,680 85,783 12,209,238
You can't possibly think that in 1939 we had the facilities to deal with even a million troops do you?
Also, they went from proposing to make 40k planes a year to making twice as many during ww2... planes then were still fairly complex...
None of us want to see a draft, but lets not be naïve thinking the US can't do it if they think they need to.
You completely misunderstand what I am saying.

What I am saying is that what the Selective Service Administration currently does to "maintain readiness" for some future mass conscription is a complete joke. All they really do is maintain a list of young men who have gone online and registered. And it isn't remotely comprehensive since millions don't ever bother to register and there isn't any penalty for not doing so. The last person who was prosecuted for failing to register was in 1986. Any tech company could put out a simple web site to accomplish the same thing in a day or so.

My point is that readiness for some future WW2 style conflict with massive conscripted ground armies is an absolutely enormous undertaking of which the selective service part of it is the least complicated or difficult. And that maintaining the selective service just "to be ready for a future draft" is pointless because that isn't the part of some future mobilization that is difficult or expensive or time consuming to accomplish. All the other stuff is.

Put another way, the selective service actually does nothing relevant to prepare the nation for some future mass mobilization. They are just window dressing that President Carter resurrected in 1979 in order to "look tough" to the Soviets after they invaded Afghanistan. And since then no president has had the initiative say "this is a pointless waste of money" and shut the thing down.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
AndersonD
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:02 am
Affiliation: Mennonite

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by AndersonD »

Can someone help me understand why the military info regarding the war is so public? Denmark and the Netherlands are sending F-16's, pilots will train for x number of months, Ukrainian soldiers have their sights on Melitopol to cut off the Russian supply routes to Crimea.

War involves clandestine operations and stealth. So why is this so public?
0 x
Ken
Posts: 21863
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:02 am
Location: Washington State
Affiliation: former MCUSA

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Ken »

AndersonD wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 10:40 pm Can someone help me understand why the military info regarding the war is so public? Denmark and the Netherlands are sending F-16's, pilots will train for x number of months, Ukrainian soldiers have their sights on Melitopol to cut off the Russian supply routes to Crimea.

War involves clandestine operations and stealth. So why is this so public?
My guess?

There is a lot of secret stuff of which we know nothing about.

But Democratic governments like those in Denmark and the Netherlands do some things in public and do make public announcements of support for Ukraine because it is simply good politics. It is what their citizens want to see happen.

And a lot of the reporting is simply speculation by reporters talking to the many "military experts" that they have on speed dial. Some of it may well be intentional disinformation as well. Tell the public you are aiming at Melitopol when it is actually a feint and your real offensive is in a different direction.
0 x
A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Szdfan

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Szdfan »

Ken wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 10:55 pm
AndersonD wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 10:40 pm Can someone help me understand why the military info regarding the war is so public? Denmark and the Netherlands are sending F-16's, pilots will train for x number of months, Ukrainian soldiers have their sights on Melitopol to cut off the Russian supply routes to Crimea.

War involves clandestine operations and stealth. So why is this so public?
My guess?

There is a lot of secret stuff of which we know nothing about.

But Democratic governments like those in Denmark and the Netherlands do some things in public and do make public announcements of support for Ukraine because it is simply good politics. It is what their citizens want to see happen.

And a lot of the reporting is simply speculation by reporters talking to the many "military experts" that they have on speed dial. Some of it may well be intentional disinformation as well. Tell the public you are aiming at Melitopol when it is actually a feint and your real offensive is in a different direction.
Not everything the military does is classified or secret and in a democracy, there is a certain amount of public accountability that the military is subject to. It's one of the reasons why the US military has civilian leadership at the top. Also, public revealing of certain kinds of information can also be strategic during war.

Also, the military can't control all information. The New York Times has relied on satellite imagery as part of their reporting.

But there are definitely things that the military is keeping secret. There's speculation that the US has secretly sent weapons to the Ukraine that they haven't acknowledged. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/na ... y-00053079

The Pentagon leak earlier this year revealed that there were some Western special forces operating in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65238951.amp

Part of the information war during wartime is controlling which information is revealed.
0 x
Josh

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Josh »

AndersonD wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 10:40 pm Can someone help me understand why the military info regarding the war is so public? Denmark and the Netherlands are sending F-16's, pilots will train for x number of months, Ukrainian soldiers have their sights on Melitopol to cut off the Russian supply routes to Crimea.

War involves clandestine operations and stealth. So why is this so public?
This war is largely a war fought with P.R., each side trying to make itself look strong and powerful. Witness the many Telegram channels where each side boasts of how many of the enemy they have killed, complete with pictures and videos of mangled bodies.
0 x
AndersonD
Posts: 215
Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2023 11:02 am
Affiliation: Mennonite

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by AndersonD »

Josh wrote: ↑Wed Aug 23, 2023 9:22 am
AndersonD wrote: ↑Tue Aug 22, 2023 10:40 pm Can someone help me understand why the military info regarding the war is so public? Denmark and the Netherlands are sending F-16's, pilots will train for x number of months, Ukrainian soldiers have their sights on Melitopol to cut off the Russian supply routes to Crimea.

War involves clandestine operations and stealth. So why is this so public?
This war is largely a war fought with P.R., each side trying to make itself look strong and powerful. Witness the many Telegram channels where each side boasts of how many of the enemy they have killed, complete with pictures and videos of mangled bodies.
That's how it seems to me also. For instance, 10's of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed or injured but we don't hear about the number of Ukrainian war dead.

I've never been on Telegram. They don't blur out graphic images???
0 x
Josh

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Josh »

Telegram is absolutely full of the worst kinds of filth, and no, it has very little censorship. The only thing Telegram will shut down is blatantly illegal pornography. That’s it. (For what it’s worth I consider a lot of the “war porn” to be worse than pornography. I think intentionally viewing people being killed is very destructive to the human soul.)

I recommend using CloudVeil Messenger which allows you to avoid being part of unregulated chats.
0 x
Ernie

Re: Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

Post by Ernie »

I have not been reading this thread in its entirety so if this has been discussed previously, you can point me to the post(s)...

With Ukraine behind sending drones into Russia, it can no longer make the case that it is only driving out the invaders. The reasoning seems to be that making attacks inside Russia will help lower morale in Russia for fighting a war in Ukraine. In my mind, it would do the opposite. Many Russians will now believe that Ukraine and NATO are indeed trying to destroy Russia, just like Putin told them at the outstart of the war. They will be even more willing to fight.

Your thoughts???
0 x
Post Reply