Russia Invades Ukraine 2022

[RZehr]

Russia has used quite a few S-300 and some more advanced S-400 missiles to attack Ukraine. But these systems are anti-aircraft, surface to air, defensive weapons.
I suppose that because they are “defensive” this made them easier politically and diplomatically to deploy nearer adversarial country borders. But clearly they are not only defensive. They can and are being, used to attack ground targets offensively.
I wonder if, in the future, this will change how countries treat these weapons.

Clarifying that I didn't mean to wonder how other countries treat Russia.

[Ken]

Russia has used quite a few S-300 and some more advanced S-400 missiles to attack Ukraine. But these systems are anti-aircraft, surface to air, defensive weapons.
I suppose that because they are “defensive” this made them easier politically and diplomatically to deploy nearer adversarial country borders. But clearly they are not only defensive. They can and are being, used to attack ground targets offensively.
I wonder if, in the future, this will change how countries treat these weapons.

Clarifying that I didn't mean to wonder how other countries treat Russia.

After doing some reading, it seems there are apparently a LOT of different versions of the S-300 and some have been modified for ballistic use (surface to surface in a ballistic trajectory).

That is probably not the optimal military use for them since surface to air missiles tend to be smaller and faster missiles with expensive radar guidance systems to track down incoming planes and missiles and don't carry large warheads since you don't need to vaporize a plane or missile with a monster warhead, just damage it to bring it down.

Surface to surface missiles tend to be much larger and dumber since they are aimed at fixed targets not fast moving aerial targets and carry much larger warheads to destroy heavily armored surface installations rather than fragile aircraft. The fact that Russia is converting S-300 missiles to attack civilian targets on the ground suggests that they are running out of more appropriate tools for that task. It is a really expensive way to fire what is essentially a long range artillery shell if you are using it for ground attack.

I think this war is changing everything. Probably the more significant development is the widespread use of drones. That has to be creating a LOT of of consternation in conventional militaries around the world when their $500 million conventional warplane can be taken out by a cheap commercial drone.

[Ken]

Another massive miscalculation by Russia.

Right now in mid-winter, natural gas prices in Europe are dropping to the lowest prices since 2021



And the US has now surpassed Russia as the #1 seller of natural gas in Europe.



I guess Russia's attempt to hold Europe hostage to Russian fossil fuel imports is collapsing. These are permanent changes too. Countries like Germany aren't building multi-billion dollar LNG terminals at light speed in order to throw them away when the war is over.

[RZehr]

Another massive miscalculation by Russia.

Right now in mid-winter, natural gas prices in Europe are dropping to the lowest prices since 2021



And the US has now surpassed Russia as the #1 seller of natural gas in Europe.



I guess Russia's attempt to hold Europe hostage to Russian fossil fuel imports is collapsing. These are permanent changes too. Countries like Germany aren't building multi-billion dollar LNG terminals at light speed in order to throw them away when the war is over.

But America had no part in ruining the Nord Stream pipeline?

[Josh]

In return, our natural gas prices and electric keep creeping in ever higher.

[Ken]

In return, our natural gas prices and electric keep creeping in ever higher.

Yes, it is a global market for fossil fuels. That is why you should be pushing for more local alternative energy sources like wind and solar that aren't subject to global markets.

It is a lot easier to export oil and gas to Europe than it is to export solar and wind energy. In fact, unlike oil and gas, domestically produced wind and solar energy can't be exported to Europe at all.

Being dependent on fossil fuels means you are dependent on the vagaries of global markets. And your energy prices are subject to the whims of countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia.

[RZehr]

I wonder whether the US and European countries are furiously working to increase all sorts of weaponry manufacturing. Or if they are actually not putting every effort into this. It appears as though they are slowly increasing weapons to Ukraine, and I wonder if they are taking the same cautious approach towards weapon procurement behind the scenes.

[Ernie]

I wonder whether the US and European countries are furiously working to increase all sorts of weaponry manufacturing. Or if they are actually not putting every effort into this. It appears as though they are slowly increasing weapons to Ukraine, and I wonder if they are taking the same cautious approach towards weapon procurement behind the scenes.

Well for now, everyone still wants to live. So there is no nuclear war yet.

I think the reason this war is so similar to World War I is because Ukraine had such limited weaponry. Therefore it is down to an artillery war.

And as of now, Russia isn't willing to use the majority of its missles to level Kiev and other big cities in Ukraine. Maybe Russia knows that as long as they do not escalate the war more than they are doing currently, NATO will just keep divying out small amounts of weaponry rather than ship large quantities of tanks and aircraft.

I find it interesting that NATO countries are not willing to deplete their arsenals below a certain level, however if Russia attacked a NATO country, or started leveling Ukranian cities all over the country, I'm guessing NATO countries would be willing to deplete their arsenals to half of current levels. It seems to me like this is somewhat a game of chicken.

[Ken]

I wonder whether the US and European countries are furiously working to increase all sorts of weaponry manufacturing. Or if they are actually not putting every effort into this. It appears as though they are slowly increasing weapons to Ukraine, and I wonder if they are taking the same cautious approach towards weapon procurement behind the scenes.

I think it depends.

Most of what is actually being sent to Ukraine is old stockpiles of ammunition, supplies, and weapons like old 155 mm artillery pieces that were basically mothballed before the war. The expensive high tech stuff like Patriot Missiles is a small part of it. Western NATO countries are mostly replacing what they sent to Ukraine with different newer stuff. But you also have arms manufacturers who are ramping up production both to sell to Ukraine and sell to NATO countries to replace the old stocks that they are sending to Ukraine. The Koreans, for example, are hugely ramping up production of their latest generation tanks which countries like Poland are buying to replace the old Soviet-era stuff they area sending to Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/south-kor ... 022-08-27/

NATO isn't going to run out of weapons any time soon. And the stuff the front-line NATO units use is a different generation of stuff from what they are sending to Ukraine. We aren't sending to Ukraine the stuff that front-line units like the 101st Airborne use such as Apache and Blackhawk Helicopters.

NATO was far ahead of Russia before this war and they are now much further ahead a year into it as Russia has destroyed large numbers of its military in Ukraine. I'm sure that NATO leaders are more than happy to watch Russia continue to immolate itself and destroy its military in Ukraine without a single NATO or American life put at risk. It is the cheapest bang for the buck they will ever have.

The table below is where things stood before the Russian invasion. Since then NATO has further strengthened itself as both Finland and Sweden have joined NATO and there numbers aren't reflected here. And many NATO countries are also ramping up their forces and military spending. While at the same time, Russia has destroyed large portions of its their military in Ukraine and greatly weakened itself.

In terms of both population and economy, Russia is basically the equivalent to Mexico. Except more corrupt and with nuclear weapons.

[mike]

A year into the war, Putin appears to be planning a large assault.