China’s population falls again as births drop to lowest rate since 1949 revolution

[JohnH]

Folks I know think kids are expensive and want to save up to buy a house and have a college fund first.

And when they do eventually think they can afford a child or two, those children grow up even less likely to have kids, and in many ways lack the life skills needed to raise children themselves.

It's a downward spiral we are seeing across a huge portion of the world, and it's masked in some western countries by migration, often from the countries that are still experiencing population growth.

Having kids in your 30s is hard. In your 40s is even worse.

Your parents are too old to help with much, who also had you at age
40. You don’t have a lot of brothers and sisters to be aunts and uncles to help. You need to divide your time between taking care of a baby and taking care of elderly parents.

You need to go work hard to save up for college.

Vs.

A 20 year old is bursting full of energy and they always stay up late anyway. A baby doesn’t change much! Your parents are 40 and excited to help with the grandchildren. You have lots of cousins for your kids to play with. They mostly just play with each other and watch themselves.

When your kid turns 16, he’ll be helping you with construction projects in a meaningful way and be buying his fixer upper when he’s 20. Instead of a college fund, you’ll be providing a down payment.

[Ernie]

It is conceivable that AI and robotics will make up for some of the shortfall of industrial labor. But I was intrigued to learn the percentage of population that is engaged in agriculture in China - 22%. These sorts of jobs can't as quickly be replaced by technology, which is how I assume most developed nations operate with a much smaller percentage.

The reason it is 22% is because a large percentage of agriculture is small plots and hand labor. We got to see this first hand several years ago.

A friend who is a businessman and teacher of the good news, who has lived there for decades, says that it is hard to get many farmers to use a new tool or farm in a different way because it might upset the ancestors.

Only 40% of agricultural work in China is considered fully mechanized, whereas up to 85% or more of US, crop production is fully mechanized.

I find the attitude interesting that it is better to “modernise” and “mechanise”.

That is not my feeling, but I am around a lot of people with this attitude.

[Ernie]

From what I’m told end user of our product

what is your product if I may ask?

[Neto]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

I have also not been to China (or anywhere outside of North America), only to Brazil and, very briefly, Bolivia. But I had no contact with any horticulturalists in Bolivia, so really Brazil is the only place I've been that is affected by what I understand Barnhart to be talking about.

This was the case with the Banawa, and I am of course making assumptions here, but I would think that small insular societies (think small rural villages) in places like China would be the same.

[R7ehr]

From what I’m told end user of our product

what is your product if I may ask?

Agriculture related. I don’t want to say on here.

[mike]

Having kids in your 30s is hard. In your 40s is even worse.

Your parents are too old to help with much, who also had you at age
40. You don’t have a lot of brothers and sisters to be aunts and uncles to help. You need to divide your time between taking care of a baby and taking care of elderly parents.

You need to go work hard to save up for college.

Vs.

A 20 year old is bursting full of energy and they always stay up late anyway. A baby doesn’t change much! Your parents are 40 and excited to help with the grandchildren. You have lots of cousins for your kids to play with. They mostly just play with each other and watch themselves.

When your kid turns 16, he’ll be helping you with construction projects in a meaningful way and be buying his fixer upper when he’s 20. Instead of a college fund, you’ll be providing a down payment.

Yes, it's all about perspective. We had children in our 20s, 30s, and 40s. There are benefits for the parents and children in all of these years. Topic for a different thread, but it's a great one.