Another business flees

[ohio jones]

With all that vacant retail space, someone should open a flee market.

[Szdfan]

That might be one of your best puns. I tip my cap to you sir.

[Josh]

With all that vacant retail space, someone should open a flee market.

Like this?

[Ken]

This whole thread is a textbook example of the logical fallacy of confirmation bias. From Psychology Today: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog ... -brutality

Confirmation bias is the logical fallacy where one only looks for evidence that confirms the beliefs that they want to hold. It usually goes hand in hand with evidence denial, where one does the opposite with evidence contrary to one’s desired beliefs and ignores it.

Now it might well be the case that crime or municipal mismanagement is leading to business closures in downtown San Francisco. But simply finding anecdotal reports of business closures and pointing to them as evidence is nothing more than seeking evidence that confirms one's pre-conceived beliefs.

This is not "anecdotal evidence", Ken, the amount of store closures in Union Square is one of the top news stories in multiple San Francisco news outlets, cf.: https://sfstandard.com/business/att-to- ... hip-store/

Here's a list from that article of the top 25 "notable" closures in the last 3 years:

Announced Business Address
June 2023 AT&T Flagship 1 Powell St.
June 2023 Cinemark Theater 865 Market St.
May 2023 Old Navy 801 Market St.
May 2023 Coco Republic 55 Stockton St.
May 2023 T-Mobile 1 Stockton St.
May 2023 Nordstrom 865 Market St.
May 2023 Nordstrom Rack 901 Market St.
May 2023 Saks Off 5th 901 Market St.
April 2023 Anthropologie 880 Market St.
April 2023 Office Depot 33 Third St.
March 2023 Amazon Go 98 Post St.
March 2023 Arc'teryx 300 Grant Ave.
February 2023 The RealReal 253 Post St.
January 2023 CB2 34 Ellis St.
January 2023 Banana Republic 256 Grant Ave.
January 2023 Athleta 255 Sutter St.
November 2022 The Container Store 29 4th St.
February 2022 Crate & Barrel 55 Stockton St.
January 2022 Abercrombie & Fitch 865 Market St.
November 2021 DSW 400 Post St.
August 2021 Disney 39 Stockton St.
February 2021 Uniqlo 111 Powell St.
January 2021 Marshall's 760 Market St.
November 2020 H & M 150 Powell St.
August 2020 Gap 890 Market St.

My podunk city in Ohio is able to keep open a Gap, an H&M, a Marshall's, a DSW, an A&F, an Office Depot, T-Mobile, AT&T, Old Navy, and Cinemark theatres. All of these closures are unique to both Union Square and to the CIty & County of San Francisco.

I also wonder when the last time you were actually in San Francisco or the Bay Area was, Ken?

I was last in San Francisco in August 2021 when we had to renew our daughter's passports at the Chilean consulate which is near Union Square.

Citing a list of business closures actually proves nothing. You are simply looking for evidence to confirm your own preconceived notions for the reasons I cited. It might well be true that these businesses are closing BECAUSE of crime. Or it might be true that they are closing for larger or different economic trends or reasons of which increased crime is just another parallel symptom. The most crime-ridden city in Ohio is Canton. Is Canton in decades of decline BECAUSE of crime? Or is high crime just another symptom of the general economic decline of manufacturing in Canton and other similar cities?

The greater San Francisco area has vast amounts of retail including dozens of locations for all of those stores you just listed. But people largely do not live in San Francisco proper due to the astronomical price of housing. Only about 10% of the metro population actually lives in San Francisco proper and less still in the neighborhoods around Union Square. This is largely because San Francisco NIMBYs have blocked virtually all new construction of homes in San Francisco which has turned the place into sort of a millionaire theme park of old multi-million dollar Victorian single family homes. For example, the population density of Barcelona is 2.5 times higher than that of San Francisco despite being a smaller city overall. That is absurd.

What that means is that retail in places like Union Square probably depended largely on tourism and foot traffic from office workers commuting in from elsewhere in the city. Both of which crashed during the pandemic, and neither of which has recovered. So even if crime did not even exist, one would expect to see lots of retail closures. And some of those stores like Nordstrom are frankly just dated and out of style and struggling for that reason.

Is crime a factor? Probably. But how much of a factor and how much of a cause versus a symptom? There is absolutely no way to know from anything that you or MacPC posted. Nor is there any way to know from the sensational anecdotal information that constantly gets reported from right wing news outlets, which suffer from the same exact confirmation bias.

[Josh]

Citing a list of business closures actually proves nothing. You are simply looking for evidence to confirm your own preconceived notions for the reasons I cited. It might well be true that these businesses are closing BECAUSE of crime. Or it might be true that they are closing for larger or different economic trends or reasons of which increased crime is just another parallel symptom.

The entire point is that Union Square is basically devoid of retail now including losing its shopping mall. It is a combination of out of control crime along with government policies that promote drug use, distribute heroin injection needles, and literally make any kind of law and order impossible.

The most crime-ridden city in Ohio is Canton. Is Canton in decades of decline BECAUSE of crime? Or is high crime just another symptom of the general economic decline of manufacturing in Canton and other similar cities?

I'm quite aware of Canton's crime rate, since I regularly go there (and had my motorcycle stolen there once from a university's dorm parking). A key difference is that Canton's law enforcement and courts don't have a policy of allowing mass looting and theft in stores, nor do they tolerate homeless encampments on every sidewalk.

What that means is that retail in places like Union Square probably depended largely on tourism and foot traffic from office workers commuting in from elsewhere in the city. Both of which crashed during the pandemic, and neither of which has recovered. So even if crime did not even exist, one would expect to see lots of retail closures. And some of those stores like Nordstrom are frankly just dated and out of style and struggling for that reason.

Strange. Canton was just as affected by the pandemic, yet they have had more stores open recently. (Canton's malls closed years ago.) Of course, manufacturing businesses are also thriving here, and there is a diverse economic base.

The reason tourists don't want to go to SF to shop is because of the horrible crime rate including the virtual certainty your rental car will get its windows smashed, or if you take BART, you're a target to get robbed if you have shopping bags. The last time I was in SF and spent time around the fisherman's wharf it was obviously just becoming an area that is too dangerous to visit. It didn't used to be normal to see people fighting on the sidewalk, screaming at each other, and pulling out each other's hair extensions.

Is crime a factor? Probably. But how much of a factor and how much of a cause versus a symptom? There is absolutely no way to know from anything that you or MacPC posted. Nor is there any way to know from the sensational anecdotal information that constantly gets reported from right wing news outlets, which suffer from the same exact confirmation bias.

The "anecdote" that is actually backed up by plenty of evidence (and I provided sources) is that retail is fleeing San Francisco. In other parts of the country, like Nashville, Florida, or Ohio, retail is doing the opposite of fleeing - stores keep popping up everywhere like mushrooms. I just drove through New Albany OH a few days ago and was shocked at how much high-end development and fancy stores there are there, compared to just a decade ago when I lived in the area.

[Ken]

Citing a list of business closures actually proves nothing. You are simply looking for evidence to confirm your own preconceived notions for the reasons I cited. It might well be true that these businesses are closing BECAUSE of crime. Or it might be true that they are closing for larger or different economic trends or reasons of which increased crime is just another parallel symptom.

The entire point is that Union Square is basically devoid of retail now including losing its shopping mall. It is a combination of out of control crime along with government policies that promote drug use, distribute heroin injection needles, and literally make any kind of law and order impossible.

The most crime-ridden city in Ohio is Canton. Is Canton in decades of decline BECAUSE of crime? Or is high crime just another symptom of the general economic decline of manufacturing in Canton and other similar cities?

I'm quite aware of Canton's crime rate, since I regularly go there (and had my motorcycle stolen there once from a university's dorm parking). A key difference is that Canton's law enforcement and courts don't have a policy of allowing mass looting and theft in stores, nor do they tolerate homeless encampments on every sidewalk.

What that means is that retail in places like Union Square probably depended largely on tourism and foot traffic from office workers commuting in from elsewhere in the city. Both of which crashed during the pandemic, and neither of which has recovered. So even if crime did not even exist, one would expect to see lots of retail closures. And some of those stores like Nordstrom are frankly just dated and out of style and struggling for that reason.

Strange. Canton was just as affected by the pandemic, yet they have had more stores open recently. (Canton's malls closed years ago.) Of course, manufacturing businesses are also thriving here, and there is a diverse economic base.

The reason tourists don't want to go to SF to shop is because of the horrible crime rate including the virtual certainty your rental car will get its windows smashed, or if you take BART, you're a target to get robbed if you have shopping bags. The last time I was in SF and spent time around the fisherman's wharf it was obviously just becoming an area that is too dangerous to visit. It didn't used to be normal to see people fighting on the sidewalk, screaming at each other, and pulling out each other's hair extensions.

Is crime a factor? Probably. But how much of a factor and how much of a cause versus a symptom? There is absolutely no way to know from anything that you or MacPC posted. Nor is there any way to know from the sensational anecdotal information that constantly gets reported from right wing news outlets, which suffer from the same exact confirmation bias.

The "anecdote" that is actually backed up by plenty of evidence (and I provided sources) is that retail is fleeing San Francisco. In other parts of the country, like Nashville, Florida, or Ohio, retail is doing the opposite of fleeing - stores keep popping up everywhere like mushrooms. I just drove through New Albany OH a few days ago and was shocked at how much high-end development and fancy stores there are there, compared to just a decade ago when I lived in the area.

Canton's violent crime rate is much higher than San Francisco although their property crime rates are nearly identical: https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/?city1 ... 2=53912000

I'm not defending San Francisco. They have done a lot of really dumb things down there and Berkeley across the bay is even worse when it comes to things line NIMBYs and housing policy. I'm just making the point that citing business closures doesn't make the case that you think it makes. San Francisco actually has tremendous natural attributes and I expect they will turn things around. Their problems are actually much more solvable than those in say Canton or Cleveland. It is just a question of of political will rather than fighting enormous economic trends. Portland is actually turning around quite fast in terms of politics and policy. And I expect and hope those trends will continue. But there is still a lot of stupidity. No more than in say Texas. It is just different stupidity. But I also like Portland's long-term chances a whole lot more than a lot of other cities around the country. Because it also has great natural attributes and the problems are also frankly much more solvable.

[Josh]

Canton's violent crime rate is much higher than San Francisco although their property crime rates are nearly identical: https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/?city1 ... 2=53912000

It's an "apples to oranges" comparison, though. I can safely go to Canton and do whatever I need to do, because:

- I will not be accosted by a homeless person demanding money

- I will not be randomly murdered or assaulted by someone I don't know, as keeps happening in San Francisco, because I am not going to Canton to buy illegal drugs

- The police in Canton are very responsive if you call and say there is a robbery in progress, etc.

- The courts in Stark County are serious about prosecuting violent offenders, but they also make sure people who are homeless, mentally ill, or addicted to drugs are placed into the appropriate diversion court and don't clog up the criminal courts / prisons

I have been spending time in Canton, Cleveland, and San Francisco for years, regularly travelling between these points from 2009 - 2021. Many of my in laws live within 2 hours of SF and they used to go there a lot. Most of them don't anymore because of the dangers. These are not paranoid people - many of them remember back when it was a lot "rougher" in the 70s and 80s. What is happening now is unprecedented.

I'm not defending San Francisco. They have done a lot of really dumb things down there and Berkeley across the bay is even worse when it comes to things line NIMBYs and housing policy. I'm just making the point that citing business closures doesn't make the case that you think it makes. San Francisco actually has tremendous natural attributes and I expect they will turn things around. Their problems are actually much more solvable than those in say Canton or Cleveland. It is just a question of of political will rather than fighting enormous economic trends. Portland is actually turning around quite fast in terms of politics and policy. And I expect and hope those trends will continue. But there is still a lot of stupidity. No more than in say Texas. It is just different stupidity. But I also like Portland's chances a whole lot more than a lot of other cities around the country. Because it also has great natural attributes and the problems are also frankly much more solvable.

Sorry but San Francisco can't seem to deal effectively with a homeless population of 8,000, which seems absurd to me. The city has been taken over by tent encampments, theft happens on a mass scale by organised crime rings, park a car without it being smashed, a bike without it being stolen and chopped up and sold in an open air market or for scrap metal, and if you try to take public transportation, you'll deal with other "passengers" smoking and you run a good chance of being assaulted or robbed. It is even worse for women and Asian-Americans, the former who are regularly sexually assaulted and the latter I don't need to tell you about how many news stories there are about Asian-Americans being targeted by violence and robbed, kicked, beaten, and killed.

In the Canton area I could (and have) successfully had a storefront open and not have to worry about being robbed in broad daylight and the police being unable to do anything. You can go into Target or Walgreens and stuff is not behind lock and key. Rents are affordable and reasonable. Homeless people who need help can get help and beds are available. Nobody goes hungry because there is plenty of assistance available. There are lots of jobs, too. The social safety net here is actually incredibly strong. And the newspaper is not chock full of stories about Asian-Americans being robbed at ATMs and beaten and kicked for no reason.

[Ken]

Canton's violent crime rate is much higher than San Francisco although their property crime rates are nearly identical: https://www.bestplaces.net/crime/?city1 ... 2=53912000

It's an "apples to oranges" comparison, though. I can safely go to Canton and do whatever I need to do, because:

- I will not be accosted by a homeless person demanding money

- I will not be randomly murdered or assaulted by someone I don't know, as keeps happening in San Francisco, because I am not going to Canton to buy illegal drugs

- The police in Canton are very responsive if you call and say there is a robbery in progress, etc.

- The courts in Stark County are serious about prosecuting violent offenders, but they also make sure people who are homeless, mentally ill, or addicted to drugs are placed into the appropriate diversion court and don't clog up the criminal courts / prisons

I have been spending time in Canton, Cleveland, and San Francisco for years, regularly travelling between these points from 2009 - 2021. Many of my in laws live within 2 hours of SF and they used to go there a lot. Most of them don't anymore because of the dangers. These are not paranoid people - many of them remember back when it was a lot "rougher" in the 70s and 80s. What is happening now is unprecedented.

I'm not defending San Francisco. They have done a lot of really dumb things down there and Berkeley across the bay is even worse when it comes to things line NIMBYs and housing policy. I'm just making the point that citing business closures doesn't make the case that you think it makes. San Francisco actually has tremendous natural attributes and I expect they will turn things around. Their problems are actually much more solvable than those in say Canton or Cleveland. It is just a question of of political will rather than fighting enormous economic trends. Portland is actually turning around quite fast in terms of politics and policy. And I expect and hope those trends will continue. But there is still a lot of stupidity. No more than in say Texas. It is just different stupidity. But I also like Portland's chances a whole lot more than a lot of other cities around the country. Because it also has great natural attributes and the problems are also frankly much more solvable.

Sorry but San Francisco can't seem to deal effectively with a homeless population of 8,000, which seems absurd to me. The city has been taken over by tent encampments, theft happens on a mass scale by organised crime rings, park a car without it being smashed, a bike without it being stolen and chopped up and sold in an open air market or for scrap metal, and if you try to take public transportation, you'll deal with other "passengers" smoking and you run a good chance of being assaulted or robbed. It is even worse for women and Asian-Americans, the former who are regularly sexually assaulted and the latter I don't need to tell you about how many news stories there are about Asian-Americans being targeted by violence and robbed, kicked, beaten, and killed.

In the Canton area I could (and have) successfully had a storefront open and not have to worry about being robbed in broad daylight and the police being unable to do anything. You can go into Target or Walgreens and stuff is not behind lock and key. Rents are affordable and reasonable. Homeless people who need help can get help and beds are available. Nobody goes hungry because there is plenty of assistance available. There are lots of jobs, too. The social safety net here is actually incredibly strong. And the newspaper is not chock full of stories about Asian-Americans being robbed at ATMs and beaten and kicked for no reason.

And yet the violent crime rate is MUCH higher in Caton so you are still safer in San Francisco.

[Josh]

And yet the violent crime rate is MUCH higher in Caton so you are still safer in San Francisco.

No, I'm not. None of us have been assaulted in Canton yet. Some of us have in San Francisco.

A city is not just its "violent crime rate". We don't go to the parts of Canton where violence happens, and there is not a lot of random violence between people who don't know each other there. Wheres in San Francisco it is random, unpredictable, and indeed targets people like tourists.

[Valerie]

And yet the violent crime rate is MUCH higher in Caton so you are still safer in San Francisco.

No, I'm not. None of us have been assaulted in Canton yet. Some of us have in San Francisco.

A city is not just its "violent crime rate". We don't go to the parts of Canton where violence happens, and there is not a lot of random violence between people who don't know each other there. Wheres in San Francisco it is random, unpredictable, and indeed targets people like tourists.

I grew up in Southern CA, San Francisco was a wonderful vacation destination Dad took us on when i was 8. There were songs about that city by the bay- trying to remember when it was nicknamed "sin city" because it became known for homosexuality- of corse the hippie/drig culture had changed it some, crime was increasing theough the years yet it was still a vacation destination when my children were young,

Breaks my heart when i see it on the news now & keep hearing from Mom that because of lack of prosecution for theft many businesses have given up.

Canton? Its less than an hour from me but i had no odea it could be compared in any way to SF. Completely different scenarios