Global Warning/Climate Change

[silentreader]

Fake news?

https://electroverse.net/british-astrop ... der-minimu

[MaxPC]

A useful graphic:

It would be much more useful if adjusted for per capita emissions (Japan and India wouldn't look so similar) and to show trends over time (Poland's borders moved around quite a bit over the years; industrialization happened at different times in different places, e.g. UK vs. China).

Also useful is noting the source of those graphics. The few sources I see mentioned have a problem with misinterpreting data to promote political agendas.

[Ken]

Fake news?

https://electroverse.net/british-astrop ... der-minimu

No, it's not fake news. But if you read closely, they are not talking about a GLOBAL ice age, they are talking about cooling in the UK and western Europe. This is a theory that has been around for over a decade and has generated a lot of discussion and even some documentary films.

Take a look at a world map like this one:

You will notice that the UK is at the same latitude as Hudson's Bay and northern Scotland is actually about the same latitude as the southern tip of Greenland. However the climate in the UK is FAR FAR milder than northern Canada or the southern tip of Greenland. The UK really has a climate more like say Pennsylvania, which is MUCH further south and more like the latitude of southern Spain or southern Italy. This is due to the Gulf Stream current which flows from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, bringing immense amounts of heat to the UK and Northern Europe, and moderating the climate there.

The Gulf Stream essentially starts when super-chilled extra salty sea water sinks in the Labrador Sea and Norwegian Sea in the northern tip of the Atlantic Ocean. Sea water becomes more dense when it cools or becomes saltier. When sea ice forms in the north Atlantic both things happen at once When oceans freeze the sea ice is largely fresh water ice and the salt gets left behind in a saltier layer of ocean right below the ice which also gets super chilled. This cold salty dense sinking water in the North Atlantic is what starts the Gulf Stream current that brings heat from the American tropics to Europe.

If the North Atlantic warms the climate is expected to see much more rainfall in the far north (due to ocean evaporation) which will mean far greater quantities of warmer fresh water running into the North Atlantic from northern rivers. And also much less sea ice. This water will be warmer and less salty than the sea water already there (which is the opposite of normal) which means it will pile up on the surface of the North Atlantic rather than sinking. Essentially acting like a dam or blockage that might divert the Gulf Stream current away from the UK and Northern Europe.

This isn't going to affect GLOBAL warming in the slightest. The exact same amount of heat will be retained in the atmosphere. It will just affect the global DISTRIBUTION of heat, making northern Europe cooler and probably the equatorial regions and coastal Africa will get warmer, as will the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean if that extra heat is not being transported away. If Northern Europe is getting less heat and the waters of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic get warmer as a result, that could result in more frequent and deadly hurricanes hitting that region. Who knows. The models aren't sophisticated enough to make those sorts of predictions.

If less heat is reaching the UK and western Europe then it needs to go somewhere else. Where that somewhere else is, is the question. The oceans hold many magnitudes more heat than the atmosphere so it is really the ocean currents that distribute more heat around the planet, not the atmosphere, and the oceans have a greater effect on local climates than most people realize.

[silentreader]

Fake news?

https://electroverse.net/british-astrop ... der-minimu

No, it's not fake news. But if you read closely, they are not talking about a GLOBAL ice age, they are talking about cooling in the UK and western Europe. This is a theory that has been around for over a decade and has generated a lot of discussion and even some documentary films.

Take a look at a world map like this one:

You will notice that the UK is at the same latitude as Hudson's Bay and northern Scotland is actually about the same latitude as the southern tip of Greenland. However the climate in the UK is FAR FAR milder than northern Canada or the southern tip of Greenland. The UK really has a climate more like say Pennsylvania, which is MUCH further south and more like the latitude of southern Spain or southern Italy. This is due to the Gulf Stream current which flows from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, bringing immense amounts of heat to the UK and Northern Europe, and moderating the climate there.

The Gulf Stream essentially starts when super-chilled extra salty sea water sinks in the Labrador Sea and Norwegian Sea in the northern tip of the Atlantic Ocean. Sea water becomes more dense when it cools or becomes saltier. When sea ice forms in the north Atlantic both things happen at once When oceans freeze the sea ice is largely fresh water ice and the salt gets left behind in a saltier layer of ocean right below the ice which also gets super chilled. This cold salty dense sinking water in the North Atlantic is what starts the Gulf Stream current that brings heat from the American tropics to Europe.

If the North Atlantic warms the climate is expected to see much more rainfall in the far north (due to ocean evaporation) which will mean far greater quantities of warmer fresh water running into the North Atlantic from northern rivers. And also much less sea ice. This water will be warmer and less salty than the sea water already there (which is the opposite of normal) which means it will pile up on the surface of the North Atlantic rather than sinking. Essentially acting like a dam or blockage that might divert the Gulf Stream current away from the UK and Northern Europe.

This isn't going to affect GLOBAL warming in the slightest. The exact same amount of heat will be retained in the atmosphere. It will just affect the global DISTRIBUTION of heat, making northern Europe cooler and probably the equatorial regions and coastal Africa will get warmer, as will the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean if that extra heat is not being transported away. If Northern Europe is getting less heat and the waters of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic get warmer as a result, that could result in more frequent and deadly hurricanes hitting that region. Who knows. The models aren't sophisticated enough to make those sorts of predictions.

If less heat is reaching the UK and western Europe then it needs to go somewhere else. Where that somewhere else is, is the question. The oceans hold many magnitudes more heat than the atmosphere so it is really the ocean currents that distribute more heat around the planet, not the atmosphere, and the oceans have a greater effect on local climates than most people realize.

Certainly some of the speculation, as concerning the Gulf Stream for instance, could be considered as having 'local' consequences.
However speculation concerning Solar minimums and so on relate to broader areas whether global or not.
Certainly I was a fan of Michael Crichton, "State of Fear" and "Timeline" were my favorites.
I suspect the quote used came from "State of Fear" but I don't know.

[Fidelio]

Sure. Just ignore all the evidence and listen to fringe conspiracy theories. The world is persecuting you! Maybe everything you think you hear and see is just them manipulating electric circuits in your brain.

Looking at evidence (like the lack of people sick and dying) makes it obvious covid is the fringe conspiracy theory. What’s amazing is how many leftists fully bought into this one, quivering at home in fear, barely able to peek out the front door with their mask strapped on to pick up their DoorDash order.

I thought you were upset because all the "lefties" were out in mass doing BLM protesting without social distance.

You have lefties who are the blithely ignorant and will vote for a man who rarely comes out of his basement. And then you have the hard core lefties who seek to destroy America.

[RZehr]

Reminds me of all the dire global warming predictions.
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/H ... s-of-1894/

“This problem came to a head when in 1894, The Times newspaper predicted… “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.”

[MaxPC]

Reminds me of all the dire global warming predictions.
https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/H ... s-of-1894/

“This problem came to a head when in 1894, The Times newspaper predicted… “In 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.”

Indeed.

Wait, let me get ready for more conspiracies.

[temporal1]

2019 / Page 99:

Page 98:

1. Invest in green business by providing grants and low-interest loans to grow green businesses and cooperatives, with an emphasis on small, locally-based companies that keep the wealth created by local labor circulating in the community rather than being drained off to enrich absentee investors.

This is merely replacing one absentee investor (private industry) with another absentee investor (government), and one mechanism of draining off wealth (profit) with another (taxes).

At its core, not so much about growing Green as about growing Government.

If i recall, early in this thread, i believe Wayne summed this up by describing it as,
“WEALTH TRANSFER.” (see below)

Proponents do not seem inclined toward personally downsizing for the good of the planet.
They seem anxious for expanding their personal coffers and their magnificent indulgences.

Page 9:

I doubt there's anybody on MennoNet qualified then to discuss this topic. "Basic Comprehension" needed to even read the papers included fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, differential equations, dynamics, systems analysis, chemistry, optical physics, statistics, etc.

I personally don't have enough of a background to really analyze the models (I wish I did, systems analysis was one of my favorite subjects in school). Most of the people in the widely cited "94% consensus" are actually out of their field in contributing to that consensus, and the politicians... never mind.

So here's your test:

What is the proper value for the Planck feedback and on what do you base that conclusion?

And (this equations are highly simplified) :

How did addition of a boundary condition as opposed to the assumption "infinitely thick atmosphere" create a model with that clearly indicates that a runaway greenhouse effect is not possible in earth's atmosphere?

Maybe we should not be afraid of common sense while realizing at the same time that
the real "global climate change" debate has little to do with science
and more to do with wealth transfer, politics, economics and religion.

Let's just ask this one simple question:
At times in the past CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has been as much as 20 time greater than it is now.
Why then have we not experienced the feared runaway global warming that we supposedly can prevent by driving Prius' and replacing our incandescent light bulbs with compact florescents LEDs?
Is there something missing from the models (equations) that somehow result in predictions that don't match the data?

Here is Page 99 of this thread.
Robert has a knack for lengthy threads.

2020: NASA Uses Powerful Supercomputers and AI to Map Earth’s Trees,
Discovers Billions of Trees in West African Drylands
https://scitechdaily.com/nasa-uses-powe ... -drylands/

Scientists from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and international collaborators demonstrated a new method for mapping the location and size of
trees growing outside of forests,
discovering billions of trees in arid and semi-arid regions and laying the groundwork for more accurate global measurement of carbon storage on land. .. ..

A minor oversight, eh?

[MaxPC]

2020: NASA Uses Powerful Supercomputers and AI to Map Earth’s Trees,
Discovers Billions of Trees in West African Drylands
https://scitechdaily.com/nasa-uses-powe ... -drylands/

Scientists from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and international collaborators demonstrated a new method for mapping the location and size of
trees growing outside of forests,
discovering billions of trees in arid and semi-arid regions and laying the groundwork for more accurate global measurement of carbon storage on land. .. ..

A minor oversight, eh?

1 Corinthians 13:12
For now we see in a mirror dimly, but then face to face. Now I know in part; then I shall know fully, even as I have been fully known.

[Ken]

Let's just ask this one simple question:
At times in the past CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has been as much as 20 time greater than it is now.
Why then have we not experienced the feared runaway global warming that we supposedly can prevent by driving Prius' and replacing our incandescent light bulbs with compact florescents LEDs?
Is there something missing from the models (equations) that somehow result in predictions that don't match the data?

I think tempral1 was quoting Robert? It's impossible to sort out.

But no, global atmospheric CO2 has never been 20x what it is now. Not even close. We do, however have good estimates of both global CO2 and sea level. Here are estimates of global CO2 going back 800,000 years from NOAA. This graph is from 2019. As of today we are at 413.59 ppm.



And here is the relationship between global CO2, temperatures, and sea level for the same time period



Current estimates are that our current trajectory of CO2 emissions is on track for 10-20 meters of sea level rise. This is what 10 meters of sea level rise would do to the east coast of the US. Setting aside the climate effects, South and coastal Florida, the eastern seaboard, and much of the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Delta would be gone. That's home to 10% of the US population.