China’s population falls again as births drop to lowest rate since 1949 revolution

[barnhart]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

[mike]

I’ve not been to China. Yet it is the country that we send more of our product to than any other single foreign country. From what I’m told end user of our product is typically a very small farmer, sounds similar to Korea, 2-3 hectares. Sounds like the typical American farm of 100 years ago, in that they are highly diversified, and not a lot more than subsistence farming. They might have a few pigs, or a few chickens, a small pond where they raise some fish, maybe a cow or sheep or goats.
And with falling birth rates, social values that disparage the farmer, and urbanization, I can’t imagine this sort of agriculture can survive. That why we see massive government agricultural projects with cutting edge technology being implemented there. I expect that 22% to be in single digits soon.

So it's very much like American farming in 1930. The advantage they have that 1930s America didn't is that all the tech is available to quickly mechanize and modernize, so you're probably right, it won't take long for that number to drop.

[mike]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

Short-sighted self-interest I think is a major factor in why people don't have kids. People just don't want to make the sacrifice.

[mike]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

If that's why people don't have children, could you explain why it is that countries with the higher levels of income and development have the lowest birth rates, and some of the worst third world horror zones have the highest? Do those countries seriously have the highest levels of hope in the future?

See for details:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ility_rate

[barnhart]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

If that's why people don't have children, could you explain why it is that countries with the higher levels of income and development have the lowest birth rates, and some of the worst third world horror zones have the highest? Do those countries seriously have the highest levels of hope in the future?

See for details:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ility_rate

Exactly so. Hope isn't tied to circumstances necessarily, it's a condition of the heart.

[barnhart]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

Short-sighted self-interest I think is a major factor in why people don't have kids. People just don't want to make the sacrifice.

People will make incredible sacrifices if they have hope it will be meaningful.

[JohnH]

I also think it is interesting that the choice to have children is one that even in a society as authoritarian as China is still obviously an individual decision.

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

If that's why people don't have children, could you explain why it is that countries with the higher levels of income and development have the lowest birth rates, and some of the worst third world horror zones have the highest? Do those countries seriously have the highest levels of hope in the future?

See for details:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... ility_rate

I’ve wondered the same thing. I think a deeper explanation is needed.

[mike]

People have children because they have hope. When hope in the future wanes, birthrates plummet.

Short-sighted self-interest I think is a major factor in why people don't have kids. People just don't want to make the sacrifice.

People will make incredible sacrifices if they have hope it will be meaningful.

I still find it really hard to believe that hope is the key factor here. I rather think that the more affluent and selfish people become, the less they are likely to invest the time, energy, and resources into birthing and nurturing children to adulthood. I think they have plenty of 'hope', it's just that their hope is self-focused rather than more broadly focused on what God is calling them to, what is best for the world, and what is best for the future of the human race and the kingdom of God. People in 'highly-developed' nations don't even close think like that any more, and so we're in the odd position in the West of having some of the best resources ever in human history, but we don't want to have kids. Our hospitals are closing up their OB/GYN departments for lack of demand. And I don't think we can just pin lack of hope as the key factor.

Our youngest child is six years old, born when my wife and I were in our forties, years after most of the friends our age stopped having children. Do people stop having children because they are hopeless about the future? I would rather think it is because, factors like unusual health problems aside, most people frankly get tired of having and raising children at some point, and don't want to still have teenagers in the house when they are in their 60s.

[JohnH]

Folks I know think kids are expensive and want to save up to buy a house and have a college fund first.

[mike]

Folks I know think kids are expensive and want to save up to buy a house and have a college fund first.

And when they do eventually think they can afford a child or two, those children grow up even less likely to have kids, and in many ways lack the life skills needed to raise children themselves.

It's a downward spiral we are seeing across a huge portion of the world, and it's masked in some western countries by migration, often from the countries that are still experiencing population growth.