Ken wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:28 pm
I actually have my doubts about whether Elon is actually going to go through with his purchase of Twitter. I've seen some good arguments suggesting he is likely to have second thoughts and back out.
The market has priced TWTR at $49, so there’s a few dollars per share of agreement with you.
One BIG problem he is going to have is that Tesla is trying to do massive expansion into China with new plants and partnerships. While at the same time China is the biggest internet censor on the planet. He is going to run into competing objectives and the management of one company will conflict with the other. By buying Twitter he is just asking for China to hold Tesla hostage in exchange for Twitter censorship of Chinese free speech. Apple ran into the same problem. but then Apple doesn't proclaim to be a bastion of free speech and marketplace of ideas like Twitter does.
China isn't going to just ask for censorship of Twitter within China. It will ask for censorship of critical voices from outside China as well.
So which company does he sacrifice in China? Tesla or Twitter?
Tesla is about 20x larger than Twitter and actually makes a profit so it is pretty easy to guess which will win that battle.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
Ken wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:17 pmOne BIG problem he is going to have is that Tesla is trying to do massive expansion into China with new plants and partnerships. While at the same time China is the biggest internet censor on the planet. He is going to run into competing objectives and the management of one company will conflict with the other. By buying Twitter he is just asking for China to hold Tesla hostage in exchange for Twitter censorship of Chinese free speech. Apple ran into the same problem. but then Apple doesn't proclaim to be a bastion of free speech and marketplace of ideas like Twitter does.
Right now China has its citizens in its largest city under a massive lockdown, so I suspect them buying electric cars isn't really much of an issue right now.
China isn't going to just ask for censorship of Twitter within China. It will ask for censorship of critical voices from outside China as well.
So which company does he sacrifice in China? Tesla or Twitter?
Tesla is about 20x larger than Twitter and actually makes a profit so it is pretty easy to guess which will win that battle.
That's a pretty myopic perspective. What is Musk's track record so far? He's very good at ignoring what governments want to do. Exactly what leverage does China have against the world's richest man?
Furthermore, you are aware that Twitter is completely blocked in China, right?
Ken wrote: ↑Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:17 pmOne BIG problem he is going to have is that Tesla is trying to do massive expansion into China with new plants and partnerships. While at the same time China is the biggest internet censor on the planet. He is going to run into competing objectives and the management of one company will conflict with the other. By buying Twitter he is just asking for China to hold Tesla hostage in exchange for Twitter censorship of Chinese free speech. Apple ran into the same problem. but then Apple doesn't proclaim to be a bastion of free speech and marketplace of ideas like Twitter does.
Right now China has its citizens in its largest city under a massive lockdown, so I suspect them buying electric cars isn't really much of an issue right now.
China isn't going to just ask for censorship of Twitter within China. It will ask for censorship of critical voices from outside China as well.
So which company does he sacrifice in China? Tesla or Twitter?
Tesla is about 20x larger than Twitter and actually makes a profit so it is pretty easy to guess which will win that battle.
That's a pretty myopic perspective. What is Musk's track record so far? He's very good at ignoring what governments want to do. Exactly what leverage does China have against the world's richest man?
Furthermore, you are aware that Twitter is completely blocked in China, right?
Tesla makes a LOT of cars in China and wants to make a LOT more.
People still use Twitter in China through VPNs. Even Chinese companies and national media outlet use Twitter in China through government-approved VPNs.
But that's not my point. My point is that Twitter is likely to pressure Elon to censor negative news about China that occurs outside China. Like, for example, Chinese dissidents in the US or Europe posting about the Uyghurs. Or pro-Taiwan independence stuff. And the leverage they will have is the billions of dollars that Tesla has invested in China and wishes to invest there in the future.
I have no idea whether this Twitter sale is going to go through or not. I'm just pointing out one potential issue that Elon will face due to ownership of both Twitter and Tesla.
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A fool can throw out more questions than a wise man can answer. -RZehr
I don't know much about Twitter, never used it and likely won't. From my outside perspective, the engine that drives it is more oppositional than cooperative. The fun comes from blasting people you dislike more than from agreeing. A large part of their success comes from maintaining an oppositional user base. I don't think it's going to be that much fun to truth truths to people who already agree. The formula that sustains Twitter is likely fragile and easily upset. A completely un-curated platform doesn't seem promising either, reddit and four Chan discovered how ugly that can be. It may turn out that Twitter in it's current form about as good as can be expected from social media.
From reports, this meme (shared by Elon Musk) .. is causing controversy??
While “in other news,” Russia/Ukraine??! “You cannot make this stuff up.” Not possible.
barnhart wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:31 am
I don't know much about Twitter, never used it and likely won't. From my outside perspective, the engine that drives it is more oppositional than cooperative. The fun comes from blasting people you dislike more than from agreeing. A large part of their success comes from maintaining an oppositional user base. I don't think it's going to be that much fun to truth truths to people who already agree. The formula that sustains Twitter is likely fragile and easily upset. A completely un-curated platform doesn't seem promising either, reddit and four Chan discovered how ugly that can be. It may turn out that Twitter in it's current form about as good as can be expected from social media.
I like it for a fast, super-current compendium of what people and institutions are saying in real time. I never post there, almost never comment, but I follow people, organizations, and institutions. It's like an abbreviated version of Facebook, far less clutter, and ads are easy to block or avoid.
mike wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:18 pm
I like it for a fast, super-current compendium of what people and institutions are saying in real time. I never post there, almost never comment, but I follow people, organizations, and institutions. It's like an abbreviated version of Facebook, far less clutter, and ads are easy to block or avoid.
Thoughts about Elon Musk’s purchase? Intentions? Future direction?
i’ve paid ‘way more attention to the excitement of his purchase than my entire combined former interest.
i don’t expect to follow in future. i’m curious about whether the drama will reflect (anything at all).
i find Robert’s prediction on P.1 interesting. i don’t have a prediction. just watching.
curious how media interest in Ukraine has quieted, the pandemic has quieted, Elon Musk is the sensation.
even biden+team seems to have time for him.
Last edited by temporal1 on Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
mike wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:18 pm
I like it for a fast, super-current compendium of what people and institutions are saying in real time. I never post there, almost never comment, but I follow people, organizations, and institutions. It's like an abbreviated version of Facebook, far less clutter, and ads are easy to block or avoid.
Thoughts about Elon Musk’s purchase? Intentions? Future direction?
I don't know what it all means, but my feeling is that Twitter will be better and more free under his leadership.
mike wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 5:18 pm
I like it for a fast, super-current compendium of what people and institutions are saying in real time. I never post there, almost never comment, but I follow people, organizations, and institutions. It's like an abbreviated version of Facebook, far less clutter, and ads are easy to block or avoid.
Thoughts about Elon Musk’s purchase? Intentions? Future direction?
I don't know what it all means, but my feeling is that Twitter will be better and more free under his leadership.
yeah. i don’t have a handle on “how EM thinks,” his motivations, or other.
eccentric. he’s comfortable “coloring outside the lines.”
Nearing the Finish Line
Twitter (TWTR) has agreed to be acquired by Elon Musk, a deal that has sent shockwaves throughout the financial and tech sectors. The announcement came just 11 days after his takeover bid was first announced. The world’s richest man and Tesla (TSLA) CEO will now look to take charge of the influential social media platform.
Word broke late last week that Musk put together $46.5 billion in financing as a means of getting the deal done. Sources report that Twitter’s board met this past weekend to discuss the latest offer, at which time the momentum started to shift toward a finalized deal.
Ad Revenue
Twitter sells $5 billion-per-year in advertising, which accounts for 90% of its revenue. Musk has publicly criticized the ad-revenue model, and has claimed his bid to take over the social media platform is not aimed at making money. Still, last week it was revealed that Twitter will borrow up to $13 billion in new debt as part of the deal, and the debt will require cash flow in order to be repaid.
Clearly, ad revenue is an important aspect of Twitter’s cash flow, which Musk will need for debt servicing. There’s also Twitter Blue, the platform’s first paid subscription model, which launched this past November. Executives say the service received a “strong response,” but added it’s not considered critical for reaching the company’s revenue target.
Potential Edit (Buttons)
Among some of the changes Musk has proposed for Twitter, one of the most significant is his pledge to take the company private. He maintains this is critical for preserving its free speech mission.
Musk has also said he’d like to see Twitter users have the option to edit tweets they’ve already sent, as well as to send longer messages. He has indicated the platform’s algorithm could be made open source, and he also floated a proposal to crackdown on spam bots, all while continuing to push for relaxed moderation standards.
Founded just over 16 years ago, Twitter’s financial future, brand identity, and public perception will undoubtedly be put to the test in its new era.
