Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Things that are not part of politics happening presently and how we approach or address it as Anabaptists.
Judas Maccabeus
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Judas Maccabeus »

Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:06 am
Judas Maccabeus wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 11:07 pm
Josh wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 8:11 pm

As opposed to the donors buying the other candidate a Senate seat?
It is not so much donors as the amount of pull she got from the “machine “. If you want to know, Trone was the more “progressive “ candidate. He was simply not part of the party’s preferred demographic. Trone would have been far easier for Hogan to defeat, as he is even further towards the progressive side than Alsobrooks.

The machine controls the public employee union and the money and footsolders they deploy in get out the vote efforts. In a thinly contested primary, that is critically important.

How do I know this? Wife was a member of the public employee union. She refused to participate, but they still got her money. Opt out will incur an “agency fee” roughly the same as union dues. They got you both ways.
Like I said, I'm not super familiar with Maryland Senate primaries but NPR did profile this race a couple of weeks ago which I listen to while riding to work. And I looked it up to read more.

It very much sounds like it was the primary voters who decided this and not some "machine". Both candidates were Democratic insiders who had lots of establishment support and funding. As for public employee unions? The biggest public employee union in Maryland is the teacher's union (NEA).
They have the most "foot soldiers" of all spread across the entire state and not just the DC suburbs. But they endorsed Trone. What does that do to your theory of machine politics determining this race? https://www.marylandmatters.org/2023/11 ... -official/
Rep. David Trone (D-6th) officially garnered the endorsement of the National Education Association in his run for U.S. Senate, based on a recommendation from the Maryland State Education Association.

The Trone campaign hopes the national association’s three million members will help galvanize support in the congressman’s quest for the Democratic nomination next year.

“David Trone is a proven champion for America’s students and Maryland’s working families,” Becky Pringle, president of the National Education Association, said in a statement Tuesday. “In a time when some extreme politicians are focused on banning books and taking away learning opportunities for students, David Trone has partnered with parents and educators to ensure students can get the one-on-one support they need, keep students and educators safe from gun violence, expand school-based mental health programs, and address educator shortages.”

Trone thanked the association and highlighted how he will work to protect project labor agreements for workers who renovate and build new schools.

“I thank the National Education Association and the remarkable educators they represent for their support and recommendation of the United States Senate,” Trone said. “The stakes of this election couldn’t be higher for our educators, our students, and our communities.”
It appears from what you said that the more moderate candidate won and the candidate who has the better chance of winning in November. From which I would conclude that the voters chose wisely. I'm not sure what race has to do with it. Why are you bringing up race?

And yes, candidates do dump lots of money into Senate races. But to dump this much personal wealth into a primary campaign is quite unprecedented and apparently it broke records. Normally the big money gets rolled out for the general election campaign for all the marbles.
NEA is small change as far as public employee unions here. It is mostly AFT, AFSCME, BTU (Baltimore teachers union) and MCEA (The union that pretended to represent me when I was a classified employee).

NPR is an absolute joke around here. They are so far on the progressive side that I can no longer listen to them. Their AM host is transgendered, they spend more time reporting on happenings in the “alphabet” community than on the loss of supermarkets in poor communities, which they seem to ascribe to evil capitalists than stealing. Their local reporting is just amazing. I assume you are talking WYPR, right?

In one of our thin primaries, the Election Day effort of the clubs and unions is essential. It largely decides a primary election here. Our turnout is about 20% for primaries, if that. Where Trone failed is that he had no “get out the vote” effort in Baltimore. Alsobrooks, from the DC burbs as well did have one. There were AFSCME workers at the pooling place across from school, shilling for Alsobrooks. I speak their lingo, my grandfather and father were heave involved in city politics. Their club more or less propelled Martin O’Malley to prominence. (O’Malley-Coggins regular third district democratic club). It no longer exsiste, largely due to redistributing, it had its turf divided into three parts.
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Ken
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Ken »

Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:27 am
Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:06 am
Judas Maccabeus wrote: Mon May 20, 2024 11:07 pm

It is not so much donors as the amount of pull she got from the “machine “. If you want to know, Trone was the more “progressive “ candidate. He was simply not part of the party’s preferred demographic. Trone would have been far easier for Hogan to defeat, as he is even further towards the progressive side than Alsobrooks.

The machine controls the public employee union and the money and footsolders they deploy in get out the vote efforts. In a thinly contested primary, that is critically important.

How do I know this? Wife was a member of the public employee union. She refused to participate, but they still got her money. Opt out will incur an “agency fee” roughly the same as union dues. They got you both ways.
Like I said, I'm not super familiar with Maryland Senate primaries but NPR did profile this race a couple of weeks ago which I listen to while riding to work. And I looked it up to read more.

It very much sounds like it was the primary voters who decided this and not some "machine". Both candidates were Democratic insiders who had lots of establishment support and funding. As for public employee unions? The biggest public employee union in Maryland is the teacher's union (NEA).
They have the most "foot soldiers" of all spread across the entire state and not just the DC suburbs. But they endorsed Trone. What does that do to your theory of machine politics determining this race? https://www.marylandmatters.org/2023/11 ... -official/
Rep. David Trone (D-6th) officially garnered the endorsement of the National Education Association in his run for U.S. Senate, based on a recommendation from the Maryland State Education Association.

The Trone campaign hopes the national association’s three million members will help galvanize support in the congressman’s quest for the Democratic nomination next year.

“David Trone is a proven champion for America’s students and Maryland’s working families,” Becky Pringle, president of the National Education Association, said in a statement Tuesday. “In a time when some extreme politicians are focused on banning books and taking away learning opportunities for students, David Trone has partnered with parents and educators to ensure students can get the one-on-one support they need, keep students and educators safe from gun violence, expand school-based mental health programs, and address educator shortages.”

Trone thanked the association and highlighted how he will work to protect project labor agreements for workers who renovate and build new schools.

“I thank the National Education Association and the remarkable educators they represent for their support and recommendation of the United States Senate,” Trone said. “The stakes of this election couldn’t be higher for our educators, our students, and our communities.”
It appears from what you said that the more moderate candidate won and the candidate who has the better chance of winning in November. From which I would conclude that the voters chose wisely. I'm not sure what race has to do with it. Why are you bringing up race?

And yes, candidates do dump lots of money into Senate races. But to dump this much personal wealth into a primary campaign is quite unprecedented and apparently it broke records. Normally the big money gets rolled out for the general election campaign for all the marbles.
NEA is small change as far as public employee unions here. It is mostly AFT, AFSCME, BTU (Baltimore teachers union) and MCEA (The union that pretended to represent me when I was a classified employee).
MSEA is the largest public employee union in Maryland and it is the state affiliate of the NEA. They endorsed Trone. Just saying...

I don't buy the notion that there is some "machine" that selected the Democratic candidate for Senate as opposed to the voters. Or that pulled strings to make sure the white guy didn't get elected. Both candidates were well-funded establishment candidates.
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Judas Maccabeus
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Judas Maccabeus »

Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 11:07 am
Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 8:27 am
Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:06 am

Like I said, I'm not super familiar with Maryland Senate primaries but NPR did profile this race a couple of weeks ago which I listen to while riding to work. And I looked it up to read more.

It very much sounds like it was the primary voters who decided this and not some "machine". Both candidates were Democratic insiders who had lots of establishment support and funding. As for public employee unions? The biggest public employee union in Maryland is the teacher's union (NEA).
They have the most "foot soldiers" of all spread across the entire state and not just the DC suburbs. But they endorsed Trone. What does that do to your theory of machine politics determining this race? https://www.marylandmatters.org/2023/11 ... -official/



It appears from what you said that the more moderate candidate won and the candidate who has the better chance of winning in November. From which I would conclude that the voters chose wisely. I'm not sure what race has to do with it. Why are you bringing up race?

And yes, candidates do dump lots of money into Senate races. But to dump this much personal wealth into a primary campaign is quite unprecedented and apparently it broke records. Normally the big money gets rolled out for the general election campaign for all the marbles.
NEA is small change as far as public employee unions here. It is mostly AFT, AFSCME, BTU (Baltimore teachers union) and MCEA (The union that pretended to represent me when I was a classified employee).
MSEA is the largest public employee union in Maryland and it is the state affiliate of the NEA. They endorsed Trone. Just saying...(( nope. MSEA represents very few people. The collective bargaining agreement is hammered out on a county be county basis, they represent very few. While MSEA may claim to represent everyone, it is simply done on a county. By county basis. My wife was AFT, which was the bargaining unit for Baltimore County. ))

I don't buy the notion that there is some "machine" that selected the Democratic candidate for Senate as opposed to the voters. Or that pulled strings to make sure the white guy didn't get elected. Both candidates were well-funded establishment candidates.
Largest public sector unions. It is AFSCME. I don’t know who is claiming that NEA is larger. AFSCME represents all state employees below grade 13. That is a lot of employees.The teacher’s union is a mixed bag, Baltimore County is AFT, unless they have changed it in the past couple of years. (I was grade 15, and hence I was MCEA.)
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Josh
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Josh »

My state rep's husband runs the regional AFSCME here. Youngstown used to be famous for being full of mob bosses who ran the local unions - but there isn't much left now except the public sector unions.
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Ken
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Ken »

Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 11:50 amLargest public sector unions. It is AFSCME. I don’t know who is claiming that NEA is larger. AFSCME represents all state employees below grade 13. That is a lot of employees.The teacher’s union is a mixed bag, Baltimore County is AFT, unless they have changed it in the past couple of years. (I was grade 15, and hence I was MCEA.)
MSEA is claiming that....maybe they are lying or wrong: https://marylandeducators.org/about-msea/
MSEA is the 75,000-member Maryland affiliate of the National Education Association, which represents 3 million education employees across the country. MSEA is the state’s largest professional employee organization.
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Judas Maccabeus
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Judas Maccabeus »

Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:14 pm
Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 11:50 amLargest public sector unions. It is AFSCME. I don’t know who is claiming that NEA is larger. AFSCME represents all state employees below grade 13. That is a lot of employees.The teacher’s union is a mixed bag, Baltimore County is AFT, unless they have changed it in the past couple of years. (I was grade 15, and hence I was MCEA.)
MSEA is claiming that....maybe they are lying or wrong: https://marylandeducators.org/about-msea/
MSEA is the 75,000-member Maryland affiliate of the National Education Association, which represents 3 million education employees across the country. MSEA is the state’s largest professional employee organization.
“Represents “ is a relative term. The way I am using it is “has been voted in as the rep for collective bargaining.”

Education in Maryland is on a county by county basis. Each county, and each bargaining unit can, and likely does have a different bargaining agent. In Baltimore county, it has beer aft historically . Baltimore city has the BTU which also is an AFT affiliate. I am still trying to find out who AFT endorsed in the primary. The workers at the polling place across from school were shilling for Alsobrooks, but were from Stonewall, one of the big black democratic clubs. Fun fact, less than 10,000 votes separating the winner from second for mayor. Some of the city council races had less than 5,000 votes to a low of 1,500 TOTAL votes. Do not dismiss the importance of the machine, it can easily get out enough to make an election.

Another fun fact: the teachers union in the city is going ape over this, I will admit I did not know of its existence:

https://renewbaltimore.org/

Putting the city on a property tax diet would do much to eliminate it’s overgrown government.
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Josh
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Josh »

If the Baltimore teachers decided to be collectively represented by beer near the stern of a ship, that could explain a few things. (Could this be related to the Dali incident?)
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Ken
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Ken »

Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 5:31 pm
Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:14 pm
Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 11:50 amLargest public sector unions. It is AFSCME. I don’t know who is claiming that NEA is larger. AFSCME represents all state employees below grade 13. That is a lot of employees.The teacher’s union is a mixed bag, Baltimore County is AFT, unless they have changed it in the past couple of years. (I was grade 15, and hence I was MCEA.)
MSEA is claiming that....maybe they are lying or wrong: https://marylandeducators.org/about-msea/
MSEA is the 75,000-member Maryland affiliate of the National Education Association, which represents 3 million education employees across the country. MSEA is the state’s largest professional employee organization.
“Represents “ is a relative term. The way I am using it is “has been voted in as the rep for collective bargaining.”

Education in Maryland is on a county by county basis. Each county, and each bargaining unit can, and likely does have a different bargaining agent. In Baltimore county, it has beer aft historically . Baltimore city has the BTU which also is an AFT affiliate. I am still trying to find out who AFT endorsed in the primary. The workers at the polling place across from school were shilling for Alsobrooks, but were from Stonewall, one of the big black democratic clubs. Fun fact, less than 10,000 votes separating the winner from second for mayor. Some of the city council races had less than 5,000 votes to a low of 1,500 TOTAL votes. Do not dismiss the importance of the machine, it can easily get out enough to make an election.

Another fun fact: the teachers union in the city is going ape over this, I will admit I did not know of its existence:

https://renewbaltimore.org/

Putting the city on a property tax diet would do much to eliminate it’s overgrown government.
By any objective analysis of this race, both candidates were establishment Democrats with lots of endorsement and support from establishment politicians and interest groups. Here is a detailed look at the results with county maps and county-by-county results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... =url-share

In the end, the race really wasn't that close. Alsobrooks won by 11 percentage points. And from looking at the results mostly got her margin of victory from Prince George's County which is her home turf and where she is the long-time executive. Her margin of victory in Prince George's county alone was enough to win the race. Take that county out and Trone wins. Trone did well in western MD which is predictable because that is where he is from and what he represents with the MD 6th Congressional District in Congress. It looks like the suburban and rural votes for Trone were not enough to overcome Alsobrook's lead in Prince William County and Baltimore. In retrospect that seems pretty predictable and not any sort of sign that there is some Democratic "machine" pulling the strings to get a Black woman elected ahead of a White man. Each candidate drew votes from their own regional constituencies and that advantaged Alsobrooks who represented the more populated areas. Alsobrooks just did better in her own regional constituency than Trone did in his. He barely won some of the counties in western MD that he should have won by big margins. And that is what lost him the race. He also lost Montgomery County which as a liberal White congressman he should have won. He should have cleaned up in places like Bethesda which is rich, liberal and less than 5% Black.

Maybe there is some Democratic political machine in Baltimore that is going to gum up this whole bridge rebuilding project. I have no idea. But I don't think this Senate race is any evidence of that.
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barnhart
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by barnhart »

We shall see. It might be interesting to revisit this thread in a couple of years to see how these predictions are playing out.
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Judas Maccabeus
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Re: Francis Scott Key Bridge Collapse

Post by Judas Maccabeus »

Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 6:33 pm
Judas Maccabeus wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 5:31 pm
Ken wrote: Tue May 21, 2024 12:14 pm

MSEA is claiming that....maybe they are lying or wrong: https://marylandeducators.org/about-msea/

“Represents “ is a relative term. The way I am using it is “has been voted in as the rep for collective bargaining.”

Education in Maryland is on a county by county basis. Each county, and each bargaining unit can, and likely does have a different bargaining agent. In Baltimore county, it has beer aft historically . Baltimore city has the BTU which also is an AFT affiliate. I am still trying to find out who AFT endorsed in the primary. The workers at the polling place across from school were shilling for Alsobrooks, but were from Stonewall, one of the big black democratic clubs. Fun fact, less than 10,000 votes separating the winner from second for mayor. Some of the city council races had less than 5,000 votes to a low of 1,500 TOTAL votes. Do not dismiss the importance of the machine, it can easily get out enough to make an election.

Another fun fact: the teachers union in the city is going ape over this, I will admit I did not know of its existence:

https://renewbaltimore.org/

Putting the city on a property tax diet would do much to eliminate it’s overgrown government.
By any objective analysis of this race, both candidates were establishment Democrats with lots of endorsement and support from establishment politicians and interest groups. Here is a detailed look at the results with county maps and county-by-county results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... =url-share

In the end, the race really wasn't that close. Alsobrooks won by 11 percentage points. And from looking at the results mostly got her margin of victory from Prince George's County which is her home turf and where she is the long-time executive. Her margin of victory in Prince George's county alone was enough to win the race. Take that county out and Trone wins. Trone did well in western MD which is predictable because that is where he is from and what he represents with the MD 6th Congressional District in Congress. It looks like the suburban and rural votes for Trone were not enough to overcome Alsobrook's lead in Prince William County and Baltimore. In retrospect that seems pretty predictable and not any sort of sign that there is some Democratic "machine" pulling the strings to get a Black woman elected ahead of a White man. Each candidate drew votes from their own regional constituencies and that advantaged Alsobrooks who represented the more populated areas. Alsobrooks just did better in her own regional constituency than Trone did in his. He barely won some of the counties in western MD that he should have won by big margins. And that is what lost him the race. He also lost Montgomery County which as a liberal White congressman he should have won. He should have cleaned up in places like Bethesda which is rich, liberal and less than 5% Black.

Maybe there is some Democratic political machine in Baltimore that is going to gum up this whole bridge rebuilding project. I have no idea. But I don't think this Senate race is any evidence of that.
you looking at the same results as I am? Fun fact, Trone's largest business is in Baltimore County, just a short hop from my home. Care for some Old Overholt? They likely have it.

Alsobrooks has no base in the city, except the machine. At the polling place across from school, people were shilling for her, with signs. Where did these people come from, her support base in Prince Georges county? Nope, from Blue and Gold democratic club, west Baltimore. This is largely the successor to Stonewall, that gave us the Mitchell family. They were the "Black" counterpart to my grandfather's club. This is one of the "machine" clubs. She took the city 60-36. It is not "pulling strings," it is good old fashioned retail politics. Whoever has the best ground game wins.
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